Windows 10前景如何？先看看微软的起跑优势

    对于微软来说，周三（7月29日）最新发布的Windows10操作系统可谓万众期待。上一个版本windows 8曾对操作界面进行了大量改动，并饱受批评。与此同时，微软大胆挺近手机市场也尚未获得回报。对于微软首席执行官萨提亚·纳德拉来说，若想完成2019年“Windows装备10亿台设备”的目标，那么Windows10必须大获成功。

    不过，纳德拉已经有一个巨大的起跑优势。虽然苹果的产品可能吸引媒体的更多关注，但是根据分析网站NetMarketShare2015年6月的估算数据，如图所示，每10台电脑桌面中，有9台使用的都是Windows操作系统，再加上Windows 7和8（微软跳过了windows9）的用户可以免费升级至Windows 10，所以Windows10 可能会很快占据桌面操作系统的市场份额。

    据调研公司IDC的数据分析，Windows10能否推进微软的桌面电脑业务是值得怀疑的。即便在新兴国家，目前桌面个人电脑市场也已经达到饱和。在发达国家，这个市场已经太过拥挤，而世界范围内的个人电脑销量预计在2015年将会下跌5%。IDC全球个人电脑追踪部门副总裁劳伦·拉夫德在一份报告中表示，“有没有长期发展的机会要看新兴市场经济的恢复和增长，但随着消费转向移动设备领域，我们觉得这样的可能性并不大。”

    那么可用于平板和手机的Windows 10，能否帮助微软挺入手机市场？微软为了吸引手机应用开发商，把windows 10做得更加便于应用开发，并支持在各种设备上使用。从这点上来看，微软还是有一定希望。

    然而看看公司的成绩，结果似乎并不令人满意：作为微软目前的手机应用系统，2010年发布的Windows Phone至今还未获得良好的市场份额。同时，微软试图在智能手机领域攻城略地的上一次发力，是在2014年以72亿美元收购诺基亚，这笔手机业务资产最近被减计。而在微软近日公布业绩惨淡的2015财年第四季度报告前几周，纳德拉就在本月早些时候隐晦地承认了诺基亚收购计划“并没有奏效”。

    而最终，无论如何努力，也许移动领域天生不是微软所长。正如下图数据显示的，Windows phone只占到手机操作系统市场份额的2%。因此，要想与谷歌安卓及苹果IOS系统并驾齐驱，微软也还有很长一段路要走，而这绝对也是2019年之后的事了。（财富中文网）

    译者：冯丰

    校对：詹妮

    For Microsoft, there’s a lot riding on its new Windows 10 operating system, out Wednesday. Its last attempt, Windows 8, was met with criticism over a massive interface redesign, while Microsoft’s MSFT 2.10% ventures into the mobile market have yet to bear fruit. If Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella is to meet his goal of hitting 1 billion Windows-powered devices by 2019, he needs Windows 10 to be a hit.

    But Nadella has a huge advantage from the starting gate. While Apple’s offerings may get more media attention, a whopping 9 in 10 desktops are running Windows operating systems, as shown in the chart below, which uses June 2015 estimates by web analytics site NetMarketShare. Given that Windows 10 is a free upgrade for Windows 7 and 8 users (Microsoft skipped “Windows 9″), it’s reasonable to expect Windows 10 to gain desktop OS market share very quickly.

    Whether Windows 10 can push Microsoft’s desktop business any further is questionable, according to research firm IDC. Desktop PC markets are saturated even in emerging countries — they’re practically overflowing in developed areas — while worldwide PC shipments expected to fall about 5% in 2015. “Any opportunity for long-term growth depends on reviving growth in emerging regions, and that seems unlikely with the shift toward mobile devices,” said Loren Loverde, IDC’s VP of worldwide PC trackers, in a report.

    So can Windows 10, which also works on tablets and mobile phones, help Microsoft break into mobile market? There’s some hope, given Microsoft’s efforts to attract app developers for Windows 10 by making it easier to code apps that will work across devices.

    But the company’s track record isn’t exactly great: Microsoft’s current mobile OS, Windows Phone, launched in 2010, hasn’t gained any significant market share. Meanwhile, Microsoft’s last big attempt at becoming a major smartphone player — a $7.2 billion acquisition of Nokia in 2014 the company recently wrote down — is “not working,” Nadella subtly admitted earlier this month, just weeks Microsoft’s disastrous Q4 2015 earnings report.

    At the end of the day, perhaps mobile just isn’t in Microsoft’s blood, no matter how hard the company tries. As shown in the chart below, Windows Phone holds only about 2% of mobile OS market share. And there’s a long ways to go — certainly beyond 2019 — before Microsoft can stand next to Google’s Android and Apple’s iOS.