10年后，哪些企业将成为财富500强霸主？

《财富》杂志每年都会发布“财富美国500强”榜单，为美国最大的企业排定座次。自从1955年首次发布以来，上榜企业一直像走马灯似的换了一茬又一茬，今年自然也是一样。到2025年，肯定有很多我们几乎没听说过的公司会将一些常年上榜的老牌企业或行业巨头挤下这份榜单。

哪些热门的创业公司和增长最快的企业，可能在下个十年内加入“财富500强”？我们倒是不妨猜一猜。我们甚至可以直接从《财富》的年度增长最快上市公司排行榜上看出一些端倪。去年这张榜单主要被页岩气、金融服务业和房地产企业主宰。

不过我们的推测也就仅限于此了，因为我们需要的是数据支持，而不是脑洞大开的幻想。以下这份榜单基于财富500强企业过去5年的年均复合增长率，来推测每家上榜公司未来10年的增长情况。当然，将未来的增长率等同于过去并不是一种完美的假设。（比如，排在这份榜单之首的Energy Transfer Equity公司主要得益于一笔180亿美元的收购，该公司估计需要几年的时间才能把这笔资产完全消化，这种规模增长不可能重复。）另外，一个公司的增长也是有极限的。在我们的“2025年财富美国500强”榜单上，前6家公司的预期年收入高达1万亿美元以上，这几乎是2014年“美国500强”之首沃尔玛年收入的2倍多。当然，这个数值也是有弹性的。不管怎样，这都是一次不错的脑力练习。

显然，作为科技业目前的“四巨头”，苹果、Facebook、亚马逊和谷歌依然是这份榜单的主宰者。尽管这些公司已经是成熟的大型企业，但它们仍在持续发布新产品，收购令人兴奋的创业公司，同时快速进军新的业务领域。它们的收益增长也反映了这一点。

如果你是在2025年读到这篇文章。欢迎你告诉我们这些预测错了多少。

The Fortune 500, our annual ranking of the largest U.S. companies, has been in a constant state of flux since the first one was published in 1955. This year is no different, and surely by 2025, plenty of companies we’ve barely heard of will knock stalwarts and industry incumbents from the list.

We could easily speculate as to which hot startups and fast-growing businesses are destined to join the Fortune 500 in the next decade. We could even pull directly from our annual fastest-growing public companies list, which last year was dominated by the shale, financial services and housing/real estate sectors.

But our speculation would be just that. Rather than take wild guesses, we’ve turned to data. The following list takes the average compound annual growth rate, or CAGR, over the last five years for the Fortune 500 and uses that figure to extrapolate each company’s growth for the next 10 years. Assuming that past growth equals future growth is not a perfect methodology. (For example, our top pick, Energy Transfer Equity, has grown thanks to an $18 billion acquisition that it will likely take years to absorb and not be repeated.) Beyond that, one has to assume there are limits to how much a company can grow. The first six companies on our “Fortune 500 of 2025” list have projected revenues of more than $1 trillion. That’s more than double the 2014 revenue of Wal-Mart, the No. 1 Fortune 500 company on this year’s list, and feels like a bit of a stretch. Still, it’s a fun thought exercise.

The list is notably dominated by what’s thought of as the four horsemen of the tech industry: Apple, Facebook, Amazon, and Google. Even though they’re all large, maturing businesses, they have continued to roll out new products, acquire exciting startups, and push into new lines of business at an aggressive pace. Their revenue growth reflects that.

And if you’re reading this from the year 2025, feel free to let us know how wrong we were.

1.Energy Transfer Equity

管道运营商Energy Transfer Equity目前在财富美国500强榜单上排名第53位。在全球大宗商品价格普遍下跌的大背景下，该公司去年的营收依然增长了14%，年度利润更是翻了3倍。如果该公司继续维持过去5年的营收增长率，那么到了2024年，其营收将达到5.8万亿美元。不过实际上它未必会增长到这种程度，因为该公司近来的增长大半来自一笔大型收购，去年的营收实际只有560亿美元。

1. Energy Transfer Equity

The company, ranked No. 53 on the Fortune 500 list, grew revenue by 14% last year and tripled its annual profits, even amid a global drop in commodity prices. If the company ETE -0.25% continues to grow at the same pace it did for the last five years, by 2024—and therefore our 2025 Fortune 500 ranking—it would have $5.8 trillion in revenue. That’s unlikely–most of the company's growth came from a big acquisition, and last year Energy Transfer Equity did just $56 billion in revenue.