为什么说油价可能将跌至每桶30美元的新低点

    全球石油供给过剩，国际油价延续着一年来的大幅滑坡势头。有分析师预计油价将进一步下跌，之后才能好转。

    上周， 美国油价向着每桶40美元的水平滑落，创六年新低，和去年夏天的高点相比已下挫近60%。《华尔街日报》报道，花旗集团分析师认为，油价迅速逼近每桶30美元的“可能性为90%”。

    油价可能继续下行的原因有几个，包括燃油需求通常较高的美国夏季驾车出行高峰已经过去，市场对中国经济增长乏力感到担心，以及产油国继续提高石油产量。上周公布的数据显示，美国商品原油供给量仍接近几十年来的最高点，原因是美国页岩油行业的蓬勃发展使产油量达到历史最高水平。同时，没有任何迹象表明以石油输出国组织（OPEC）为首的中东国家开始下调目标产量，以便全球石油供应更贴近需求。

    尽管今年早些时候油价曾短暂反弹，并且一度升至每桶60美元以上，但去年油价触及近100美元的高点后，市场对供给过剩的担忧基本上让石油价格一直处于直线下滑状态。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    校对：詹妮

    Crude oil prices are continuing their yearlong plunge amid the global oil supply glut and some analysts think the commodity’s decline will only get worse before it gets better.

    The price of U.S. oil has fell to nearly $40 per barrel this week — its lowest point in six years and nearly a 60% decline from last summer’s highs — and The Wall Street Journal reports that analysts at Citigroup think there is “a 90% likelihood” that the price will drop closer to $30 a barrel very soon.

    Several factors are contributing to the likely continued price drop, including the end of the summer season, when demand for oil is generally at a high point, as well as market concerns over the sluggish Chinese economy and the fact that oil-producing countries continue to stockpile their supplies. Oil inventory data released this week showed U.S. commercial crude supplies remain near their highest levels in several decades, as the U.S. shale boom continues to drive record production. Meanwhile, Middle Eastern countries, led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) have shown no signs of cutting their production targets to bring global supply more in line with demand.

    While a short-lived oil rally took prices above $60 per barrel earlier this year, the industry’s supply concerns have mostly kept prices in a free-fall after touching highs near $100 per barrel of crude oil last year.