2015年最被热炒的新兴技术
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随便瞅一眼任何一个主流媒体，你肯定都会看到关于某家创业公司或《财富》美国500强企业正在搞汽车自动驾驶技术的报道。 自动驾驶汽车是指汽车通过一系列车内科技，实现自动驾驶功能。目前这项技术正是一时之宠。本周，它排在了高德纳公司《新兴技术炒作周期》报告的榜首，紧随其次的则是物联网。这份一年一度的报告主要评估新技术距离被主流采用还有多远（从两年内到十年以上不等）。以下这张图表反应的是人们对这些新技术的预期和兴趣。 |
A quick scan of any major media outlet (even here) and readers are bound to run into an article about some start-up or Fortune 500 company working on autonomous driving tech. The autonomous vehicle—which can drive itself in autopilot mode using a variety of in-vehicle technologies—is the shiny plaything of the moment. And this week it landed at the top of Gartner Inc.’s Hype Cycle of Emerging Technologies report, right next to the Internet of Things. The annual report assesses how close new technologies are to mainstream adoption (less than two years away to more than 10 years off). The emerging technologies are plotted onto a chart that measures expectations and interest. |
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虽然自动驾驶技术获得了极大的关注，而且各大企业也在不断取得进展，但人们对这项技术的假设还是过于乐观了。 很多人都在想：大概要不了多久，我们就能坐在像休息室一样的汽车里，让自动驾驶汽车载着我们四处逛了。这种想法未免太过乐观。问题是，新兴的自动驾驶技术与功能成熟的自动驾驶汽车之间还有很大的距离，这个距离要远远大于各大媒体的报道所暗示的程度。 高德纳公司指出，传感器、定位、成像、导航、人工智能、测绘、通讯技术以及先进软件和云计算等领域的进步，正在使自动驾驶汽车越来越接近现实。但自动驾驶汽车的复杂性依然很高，同时相关成本也依旧居高不下。 高德纳公司的报告还指出，主流媒体连篇累牍的报道，也让人们对自动驾驶技术产生了不切实际和过高的预期。 高德纳公司表示，从现实情况来看，自动驾驶汽车距离被主流采用还有五到十年的时间。首先，价格是一个主要的挑战。其次，诸如可靠性等法律和伦理问题也是阻碍自动驾驶技术被广泛采用的因素。高德纳公司预计，考虑到技术创新的速度，以及各国、各州省乃至全球立法的情况，短期内自动驾驶汽车可能只会被允许有限使用。比如，只能在低速城市道路或高速公路上行驶。 高德纳公司指出，自动驾驶技术的发展将经历三个阶段。第一阶段是自动化，第二阶段是自主化，最终第三阶段才是真正的无人驾驶汽车。目前包括奥迪、特斯拉、戴姆勒和宝马在内的一些公司已经为自家车型加入了变道辅助等自主驾驶功能。今年6月，博世公司同意与戴姆勒和拼车公司car2go合作研究自动泊车项目。本周，特斯拉也发布了自动驾驶软件升级版用于进行测试。 当我们最终达到自动驾驶阶段，整个行业的经济前景将出现重大转变。巴克莱银行今年5月发布的一份报道预测称，在一个由自动驾驶汽车主宰的社会中，美国的汽车销量将下降40%，汽车拥有率将下跌50%，届时像福特、通用汽车这样的老牌厂商将面临着要么适应、要么死亡的艰巨关口。这种转变也将为科技创业公司和车辆租赁公司创造不少商机。 高德纳公司的《新兴技术炒作周期》报告还包括以下新兴技术： • 带有自助服务交付功能的先进分析技术 • 加密货币 • 语音翻译 • 可穿戴设备 • 机器学习 • 数字化技巧 • 微型数据中心 • 智能顾问 （财富中文网） 译者：朴成奎 审校：任文科 |
And while much of the attention toward autonomous vehicles is warranted—companies are making continued advancements in self-driving tech—it’s producing some starry-eyed assumptions. We’ll all be zipping around in vehicles outfitted more like lounges than cars any day now, right? Hardly. And that’s the problem: The gap between emerging self-driving tech and fully autonomous vehicles is much wider than the prominent media coverage might suggest. Progress in sensors, positioning, imaging, guidance, artificial intelligence, mapping, and communications technologies, combined with advanced software and cloud computing, is bringing autonomous vehicles closer to reality, according to Gartner. However, the complexity of self-driving cars and the associated costs remain high. Plus, widespread and prominent coverage by mainstream media is leading to unrealistic and inflated expectations, Gartner says in its report. In reality, autonomous vehicles are five to 10 years away from mainstream adoption, Gartner says. Cost is a primary challenge. Legal and ethical issues such as liability are other hindrances. Gartner predicts that the pace of technology innovations and individual country, state, and global legislation will likely lead to specific, limited-use cases for self-driving vehicles in the short term. For instance, low-speed city driving or highway driving. The road to autonomous driving will occur in three phases: automated, autonomous, and finally, driverless vehicles, Gartner says. Companies including Audi, Tesla Motors TSLA -5.12% , Daimler DDAIY -2.58% , and BMW already have autonomous driving features in cars such as lane steering assist. In June, Bosch agreed to join Daimler and car-sharing company car2go in an automated parking project; and this week Tesla released its autopilot software upgrade to some beta testers. When we do reach the driverless car phase, the economic outlook for entire industries will undergo a massive shift. A Barclays report released in May predicts that in a society dominated by self-driving cars, U.S. auto sales might fall 40% and vehicle ownership could drop 50%, forcing entrenched automakers such as Ford Motor Co. and General Motors to adapt or die. This shift will also create opportunities for tech start-ups and rental car companies. Other emerging technologies at the top of Gartner’s Hype Cycle include: • advanced analytics with self-service delivery • cryptocurrencies • speech-to-speech translation • wearables • machine learning • digital dexterity • micro data centers • smart advisers |
