经济下行不碍事，华纳兄弟欲进军中国拍电影

    中国央行最近下调了人民币中间价，对中国经济增长乏力的担忧成为最近全球股市暴跌的诱因之一。

    此时似乎不宜考虑在中国进行业务扩张，但据报道，时代华纳及其电影公司华纳兄弟正有此意。《华尔街日报》8月28日称，华纳兄弟正在和华人文化产业投资基金商讨组建合资公司事宜，搭乘中国方兴未艾的电影产业的东风，在中国本土制作影片。华人文化产业投资基金设在上海，有政府背景。

    华纳兄弟发言人拒绝就报道发布评论。

    尽管中国经济正在滑坡，但中国的电影票房一路高歌猛进，而华纳兄弟可能与中国本土企业合作的消息传出，恰逢这个当口。娱乐行业研究机构Rentrak公布的数据显示，今年年初以来中国消费者用于观看电影的支出约为42亿美元，比上年同期上升了64%；去年也是中国电影票房的破纪录之年。该机构高级传媒行业分析师保罗•德加拉贝迪安预计，中国可能在几周内就能打破去年46亿美元的破纪录票房（相比之下，北美电影票房去年下跌了5%以上，降至104亿美元，但今年的票房有望首次突破110亿美元）。

    德加拉贝迪安认为，尽管中国的股市重挫和整体经济前景不明可能亮起了一些红灯，但消费者的娱乐支出通常不怎么受经济滑坡的影响。也就是说，经济疲软不太可能阻止中国观众走进电影院。他还指出，今后几年中国电影市场看涨，分析师预计，到2020年中国的电影总票房将超过美国，跃居全球首位。到2030年，中国的年度票房规模可能达到北美的两倍。

    除了经济局势欠佳，对瞄上中国市场的电影公司来说还存在另外一些风险。障碍之一是中国政府对电影行业的严格控制，比如每年的进口影片配额。一些电影在中国摄制也许能让美国电影公司绕开进口配额，同时规避海外制作影片在中国发行的限制。受相关规定影响，7月1日就在美国上映的《终结者：创世纪》直到8月23日才登上中国的银幕，但首日票房仍突破了2700万美元。

    就算考虑到各种经济和监管风险，但华纳兄弟可能有意在中国设立合资公司，还是不会让人感到意外。时代华纳两年前就和华人文化产业投资基金联合组建了一家公司，旨在投资于中国传媒产业。

    对于在中国电影市场投资的公司，德加拉贝迪安说：“他们觉得潜在回报值得自己冒险。”他对此持赞成态度：“如果不在中国市场赌一把，而它又像大家预计的那样蓬勃发展起来，那就失去了一个大好机会，一个可以改变行业格局的机会。”

    中国人口众多，电影票房一路飙升，从中看到投资潜力的美国公司不只时代华纳一家。华人文化产业投资基金已经和动画电影公司梦工厂建立了合资公司；其他美国电影公司也认同了中国电影票房的重要性，它们加入部分电影情节或将影片摄制地改在中国，以更好地迎合中国观众。

    《华尔街日报》同时指出，在今年领跑中国票房的电影中，国产影片仍然占一半以上。这解释了为什么美国电影公司会认为不断增长的中国电影市场释放出了更多潜力。此外，想在中国的娱乐盛宴上分一杯羹的不仅仅是美国电影行业。华特迪士尼公司已经为上海迪士尼乐园投入了数十亿美元资金；流媒体视频服务商奈飞也打算大举进军中国市场，尽管中国电子商务龙头企业阿里巴巴最近启动的流媒体业务将成为奈飞的有力竞争对手。

    德加拉贝迪安认为，中国电影市场已经展现出了令人侧目的增长速度，尽管眼下的经济形势确实存在风险，但好莱坞在中国投资是正确举措。“如果还有哪家美国电影公司对中国没有想法，他们就得加油了。”他说。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    校对：詹妮

    China’s government recently devalued the country’s currency, and fears over the country’s sluggish economic growth helped spur the past week’s massiveglobal stock selloff.

    It would seem to be a precarious time for companies thinking about expanding their businesses in China, but that’s exactly what Time Warner TWX 2.84% and its movie studio, Warner Bros., are reportedly planning. The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that Warner Bros. is in talks with China Media Capital, a government-backed investment fund based in Shanghai, about forming a joint venture that would make locally produced films to take advantage of China’s emerging movie industry.

    A Warner Bros. spokesman declined to comment on the Journal report.

    News of Warner Bros.’ potential local partnership in China comes at a time when Chinese box office grosses have surged, even as the country’s economy is tanking. Chinese consumers have spent roughly $4.2 billion on movie tickets so far this year — a 64% bump from this point last year in what was a record-breaking year for the movie industry in China, according to entertainment researcher Rentrak RENT 2.46% . Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst for Rentrak, said China could storm past last year’s record-setting mark of about $4.6 billion total gross in a matter of weeks. (By way of comparison, North American ticket sales declined more than 5% last year, to $10.4 billion, but are on pace to top $11 billion this year for the first time ever.)

    While China’s plunging stocks and general economic uncertainty may raise some red flags, Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst for Rentrak, notes that consumers’ entertainment spending is generally seen as somewhat recession-proof, meaning a struggling economy isn’t likely to keep China’s moviegoers away from theaters. He also points to the expected growth of China’s movie market in coming years, with analysts expecting the country to surpass the U.S. as the global box office leader by 2020. By 2030, Dergarabedian says, China’s annual ticket sales could be double that of the North American box office.

    There are other risks for studios looking at China beyond the current fragile state of the country’s economy. Another obstacle is the Chinese government’s strict control over the movie industry, including rules limiting the number of films that can be imported to China each year. Producing some films in China could allow Hollywood studios to avoid those import quotas as well as regulations that put an embargo on the release of films made outside of the country — a rule that caused Terminator Genisys, a film released in the U.S. on July 1, to not be released in China until last weekend, when it opened with more than $27 million.

    Even taking the various economic and regulatory risks into consideration, Warner Bros.’ interest in a potential joint venture would not be surprising. Time Warner already partnered with China Media Capital two years ago on a joint venture designed to invest in local media properties.

    “They feel the risk is worth the potential reward,” Dergarabedian says of companies investing in China’s movie market, adding that he agrees with the sentiment: “If you don’t bet on China and it flourishes in the way that we all think it will, then you’re missing out on a big bet. A game-changing bet.”

    Time Warner isn’t the only U.S. company to see the investment potential in China’s huge population and booming movie ticket sales. China Media Capital already has a joint venture with animation houseDreamWorks DWA 2.54% , and other studios have acknowledged the importance of China’s box office byaltering certain aspects of their films’ plots or filming locations to better endear the end-product to the Chinese market.

    At the same time, locally produced films still comprise more than half of this year’s top-grossing films in China, according to the Wall Street Journal, which shows why a Hollywood studio would still see even more unlocked potential in the country’s growing movie market. And movie studios aren’t the only businesses battling over China’s entertainment dollar. Walt Disney DIS 3.66% has pumped billions into its Shanghai Disneyland Resort, and video streaming company Netflix NFLX 8.98% has big plans for aneventual launch in China, though it will face steep competition from a streaming service recently launched by Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba BABA 0.13% .

    With the impressive growth China’s movie market has already shown, Dergarabedian believes Hollywood is right to put down stakes there, even if the current economic situation does pose a risk. “If every studio doesn’t have some sort of plan for China,” he says, “they should.”