科技泡沫的迹象无处不在

    预测泡沫何时破裂，是一种很愚蠢的行为。比如说去年，在一篇谈论网络设备供应商Arista Networks的文章中，我开始鼓吹这种观点。我此前曾经撰写过一篇关于这家公司的报道，该公司随后主动提出愿意在首次公开募股时给我一定数额的股票。我推想，这种没有志气的做法明显说明有些事超出了他们的掌控。正如我们所知道的，跻身《财富》独角兽榜单的公司（即价值不低于10亿美元的私人公司）数量就是从那时开始增加的，而Arista的股价几乎达到了上市价格的两倍。

    无论从质上还是量上看，新的泡沫迹象已经太多。股市波动和美联储加息前景引发的恐惧，正在给科技经济发送危险信号。资本越来越匮乏，也越来越昂贵，这个事实对那些自信满满的科技公司造成的伤害，将远超那些经验不足的企业领袖的预计。实际上，十足的自信本身就是一种被忽略的危险信号。为了加深体会，我强烈建议大家读一读尼克•比尔顿在《名利场》杂志发表的泡沫特写。圈内人嘲笑比尔顿的描述毫无新意。这倒没错。但如果你忽视他这种由点及线的总结，后果自负。

    美国政府部门已发出了微妙信号。旧金山市政府原本计划在市中心建立一个超大型交通项目，然而就在上周，政府在土地拍卖开始前18小时取消了竞标。据《旧金山纪事报》报道，核心竞标者表示，国际股市的崩盘让他们感到恐慌，不愿参与竞标。这块土地可以容纳一座750英尺的高楼，原计划募集多达2亿美元的资金。

    来自某家企业高层的信号则更加微妙。一家名为Zeetings的澳大利亚公司前不久给我发来电子邮件，邀请我与即将来美的该公司首席执行官碰个面。据我所知，Zeetings是一个免费工具，可以帮助用户把PowerPoint幻灯片变得更加炫酷，从而“颠覆演示概念”。这家初出茅庐的公司称eBay正在使用他们的产品，于是我回信问他们如何盈利。没人回答我的问题。Zeetings能否成功我不知道，但数百家类似公司将很快消亡。

    泡沫的另一个显著迹象是傲慢自大。风险投资家原本就是一群非常自信的家伙，他们现在变得近乎狂妄。他们会发表文章讲述“在39岁生日之际实现人生目标”，并在文章末尾高呼：“到了大干一场的时候了。”你们自己来得出结论吧。（财富中文网）

    译者：严匡正

    审校：任文科

    Predicting when bubbles will burst is a foolish exercise. I began beating the drum, for example, in an articlelast year about Arista Networks, which offered me shares in its upcoming IPO after I’d written about the company. Such craven behavior, I reasoned, was a sure sign that things had gotten out of hand. As we know, Fortune’s unicorn list of private companies worth $1 billion or more has only grown since then; Arista’s stock nearly doubled from its listing price.

    New signs of a bubble, qualitative and quantitative, abound. Public-market volatility and interest rate fears are legitimate red flags for the tech economy. Scarcer and more expensive capital will hurt swaggering tech companies more than their inexperienced leaders realize. The swagger itself is an underappreciated warning sign. To catch the vibe, I highly recommend Nick Bilton’s bubble feature in Vanity Fair. Insiders sniff that Bilton offers nothing new. True. Ignore his connect-the-dot exercise at your peril.

    Here’s a subtler sign of the top. Last week the government authority building a massive, traffic-clogging transportation project in downtown San Francisco cancelled a land auction 18 hours before its start. Key bidders said they were too spooked by markets to participate, the San Francisco Chroniclereported. The parcel is question can handle a 750-foot tower and was expected to fetch as much as $200 million.

    Subtler still are the subjective signs of a top. An Australian company called Zeetings emailed recently to set up a meeting with its visiting CEO. Zeetings, I was told, is a free tool that is “changing the presentation game” by letting users spice up their PowerPoint slides. I replied by asking how the fledgling company, which brags that eBay has been using its product, makes money. No one responded. Whether or not Zeetings makes it, there are hundreds of companies like it that soon won’t exist.

    The hubris factor is another obvious tell. When venture capitalists, a confident lot, become so full of themselves that they publish essays about their life goals upon turning 39 that end with the rallying cry that “its [sic] time to really start fucking some shit up …”, well, I’ll let you draw your own conclusions.