卡特彼勒裁员：全球经济发出危险信号

    重型设备制造商卡特彼勒上周四（9月24日）宣布，将在2018年底前裁员逾万人，同时下调了2015和2016年的收入增长预期。

    卡特彼勒陷入困境并不是什么新闻。如果该公司的2015年收入预期成真，就会出现过去12个季度中9个季度收入下降的局面。业绩滑坡的原因是全球能源和采矿行业表现低迷，以及中国和巴西等新兴市场增速放慢。人们经常把卡特彼勒视为全球经济晴雨表，因为它生产的设备用于资源采掘和建设等活动，而这些活动正是经济增长的动力所在，特别是在新兴市场。

    今年1月份我曾解释过，为什么卡特彼勒下调业绩预期意味着全球经济将遇到麻烦。几个月后，中国经济就急剧放缓，A股也大幅下跌；另外，作为曾经的另一颗希望之星，巴西经济也陷入了衰退。来自卡特彼勒的最新消息让人无法相信新兴经济体将很快复苏。

    Heavy-equipment manufacturer Caterpillar CAT -6.27% announced Thursday that it will cut more than 10,000 jobs through 2018 at the same time that it lowered its expectations for revenue growth in 2015 and 2016.

    Caterpillar’s woes are not new. If its revenue projections for 2015 are realized, they will mark the ninth quarter in the previous 12 in which revenue fell. The declines are being driven by weakness in the energy and mining businesses worldwide, and slowed growth in emerging markets like China and Brazil. Caterpillar is often seen as a global bellwether, since its equipment is used for activities like resource extraction and construction, which provide the engine for economic growth, especially in emerging markets.

    Back in January, I wrote about why Caterpillar lowering its guidance spelled trouble for the global economy. Months later, we saw China’s economy slow sharply while its stock market crashed, while another one-time rising star, Brazil, entered a recession. The latest news from Caterpillar does not offer any reason to believe that the emerging economic world will recover any time soon.

    卡特彼勒的问题不光是收入减少，从上面的收入增长数据可以看出，局势显然正在恶化。就新兴市场而言，没有哪家公司能像卡特彼勒那样消息灵通。如果该公司预计今后16个月收入将滑坡，这对新兴市场资本投资来说绝不是什么好消息。

    这条消息和经济学家戴维•列维一直以来对全球经济的看法不谋而合。列维指出，发现衰退迹象的关键在于观察全球投资情况。如果投资增多，利润就会增长，经济增速也会加快。如果投资下降，衰退就不会太远。在下图中可以看出，全球资本投资的增长动力一直来自新兴经济体，而非发达国家。

    卡特彼勒的预期表明，新兴市场的下滑势头不会很快出现反转。正如列维指出的那样：

    “[发达市场]投资也没有带来多大的提升。从周期角度讲，美国的投资已进入成熟阶段，没有大量受到抑制的需求，没有高的离谱因而需要下调的利率，也不存在经济增速加快可在一夜之间提振公司预期的可能性。欧元区在七年中经历了两次衰退，应该说那里也许有一些受抑制需求，但其增长潜力极为有限，而且欧元区银行几乎没有承担风险的欲望，基本上形同虚设。”

    如果说卡特彼勒是全球经济的“矿难预警器”，那么也许已经到了朝着出口撤离的时候了。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    校对：詹妮

    Not only is Caterpillar’s revenue shrinking, but the situation appears to be getting worse, as you can see from the revenue-growth figures above. No company has their ear to the ground when it comes to emerging markets like Caterpillar, and if it is expecting its revenue to fall in the next 16 months, that doesn’t bode well for capital investment in emerging economies.

    This information dovetails with worries that economist David Levy has been voicing over the global economy. He argues that the key to spotting recessions is looking at overall global investment. As investment rises, so will profits and growth. When investments are falling, a recession isn’t that far around the corner. As you can see from the following chart, the growth in global capital investment has been coming from the emerging economic world, not developed economies.

    Caterpillar’s projections suggest that the emerging world isn’t going to reverse this trend anytime soon. And as Levy has written:

    “[Developed market] investment isn’t providing much lift either. Cyclically, investment is mature in the United States; there is no great pent-up demand, no prohibitively high interest rates to be slashed, and no prospect that an economic acceleration will enhance business expectations overnight. The euro area might arguably have some pent-up demand after two recessions in seven years, but growth prospects remain severely limited, and euro banks remain largely zombies with little appetite for risk.”

    If Caterpillar is the canary in the global economy’s coal mine, it might be time to head for the exits.