为什么说特斯拉的神话正在褪色

    11月3日，特斯拉发布第三季度财报（净亏损为2.3亿美元，与去年同期相比有所扩大——编者注）。在追随首席执行官颠覆汽车行业的梦想道路上，特斯拉可能正在失去前进的势头，或许正在撞上一个转折点。

    前通用和克莱斯勒汽车公司副董事长鲍勃·鲁茨是最受尊敬的汽车业高管之一。上周，他在Road and Track网站写道：

    “特斯拉表现出遭遇困境的各种迹象：现金流失、资产证券化、存货堆积。对任何一家汽车厂商来说，这三件都是要命的事。只要是对特斯拉稍有关注的人，就很可能已经意识到，麻烦之日即将到来。就像世间的许多难题一样，特斯拉的麻烦来源不止一个。”

    鲁茨的警告不容小觑。他曾经领导通用汽车开发出雪佛兰Volt电动车，还曾经担任电池厂商Exide Technologies的首席执行官。就在鲁茨发出警告之前，美国《消费者报告》杂志网站调低了特斯拉Model S车型的评级。由于小故障频发、质量问题，再加上特斯拉应对投诉的能力不足，该网站将它对这款车型的评级从“推荐购买”降为“低于预期”。

    巴克莱银行也在10月9日将特斯拉的评级从“中立”下调至等同于“卖出”的级别，并援引外界的担忧称，即将上市的Model X跨界车将“对特斯拉的利润空间进行又一次现实考验”。

    特斯拉没有回应《财富》的置评请求。不过穆斯克本人在Twitter上就《消费者报告》下调评级一事作出了回应。

    他还指出，《消费者报告》也发现有97%的特斯拉车主期待该公司推出下一款新车，这证明产品的满意率很高。

    根据第二季度的销量和亏损来计算，特斯拉目前每卖出一辆车就要亏损约4000美元。推出新款车型还会在短期内增加成本。此外，穆斯克坚持在Model X上使用鸥翼式车门，此举必然会提高制造的复杂程度，引发可靠性问题。这也是其他汽车厂商并未大规模使用鸥翼式车门的原因。

    对投资者而言，特斯拉一直是一只高风险、高回报的股票。冒险家们很大程度上都被穆斯克的个人魅力、企图心和他作为颠覆者的角色——例如用公司的工作室来销售汽车、提供售后服务，而不是传统的经销商——所吸引。此外，Model S酷炫的外形设计也重新定义了电动汽车该有和能有的样子。首席执行官或超级模特开着这样的车，不会觉得他们是待在贫民窟里，或是穿着一件寒碜的苦行僧服。

    从2010年6月29日上市那天收盘价的23.83美元，到2014年9月的高点291美元，再到现在的低于210美元，这只股票绝不是胆小或保守的投资者敢去触碰的。它是一只“飞鸟股”。据纳斯达克网站的消息，目前仍有10名分析师将这只股票评为“买入”级，另有5名分析师给出了“卖出”或“表现不佳”的评级。

    特斯拉的市值大约为270亿美元。对于一家去年只卖出了31,665辆汽车，今年如果保持正轨才可能卖出5.5万辆汽车的公司来说，这样的价格实在太高，很难严肃地把特斯拉视为一个潜在的收购对象。

    鲁茨警告穆斯克和投资者称，特斯拉销量和利润上限恐怕低于穆斯克和特斯拉支持者的预期。为什么？因为美国的汽车业充满了承受能力强大的对手。这是一个受到大量管制的资本密集型行业，许多经验丰富的公司每天都在疲于应对无处不在的障碍。

    穆斯克充当了一个颠覆者的角色，而大多数人都认为这个过度成熟的行业急需颠覆，尤其是处于销售环节的经销商（他们的评级可能还不如国会），以及媒体（事关消费者认可度评级）。不过鲁茨认为，穆斯克想要依靠公司自己的团队来销售汽车，完全是愚蠢之举。他写道：

    “你需要一幢很大的建筑来提供服务区、充电站，还得有训练有素的销售团队，以及必要的财务和会计人员。这些都要消耗巨大的资金，尤其是再考虑到库存的因素。在传统的特许经营权的模式下，厂商从来不需要考虑这些负担。但现在，特斯拉就得考虑。”

    特斯拉的成功之处在于将电动汽车设计得美观时尚，令人心动。特斯拉Model S就如同阿玛尼西装和Kate Spade手包，而日产Leaf、福特Focus Electric等电动车，就像是平价运动品牌斯凯奇标出了Gucci的价格，同时还领着政府补贴。

    不过特斯拉正在失去优势。随着电池的价格下降，电动汽车的价格随之走低，充电后的行驶里程也在变长。新款日产Leaf的外型已经得到了大幅改观，而且每次充电的续航里程提升了30%。

    新款雪佛兰Volt造型也更加漂亮，续航里程更长。此外，雪佛兰还将在明年推出价格更低的Bolt EV。对特斯拉来说更不好的消息是，宝马和奥迪也在推出更多款式的电动汽车和增程式电动汽车（拥有电动发动机和备用油箱）。在应对奢侈品买家上，这两大品牌拥有更加丰富的经验和更加完备的基础设施。

    特斯拉能否如穆斯克所言，在明年能卖出超过6万辆Model X电动汽车，以及大约3万辆Model X跨界车，将成为对其持久力和信誉真正的考验。否则，无论是特斯拉，还是穆斯克，这两个品牌都将失去魔力。

    大卫·基利居住在密歇根州安阿伯市，是一名曾荣获奖项的商业记者，也是国际汽车出版协会的名誉董事长。（财富中文网）

    译者：严匡正

    审校：任文科

    When Tesla Motors Inc. reports third quarter earnings Tuesday, Nov. 3, it will do so in a headwind of growing skepticism around the Elon Musk-led electric car company; that it may be losing some momentum or perhaps hitting an inflection point in the CEO’s dream of disrupting the auto industry.

    Bob Lutz, former vice chairman of General Motors and Chrysler and one of the most respected auto executives walking around, wrote this week in Road and Track:

    “Tesla’s showing all the signs of a company in trouble: bleeding cash, securitized assets, and mounting inventory. It’s the trifecta of doom for any automaker, and anyone paying attention probably saw this coming a mile away. Like most big puzzles, the company’s woes don’t have just one source.”

    That warning to Musk from Lutz, who also developed GM’s Chevy Volt and is former CEO of battery maker Exide Technologies, came on the heels of Consumer Reports dinging the Tesla Model S. Consumer Reports lowered its rating from “recommended” to “worse than expected” based on glitches, build quality issues and Tesla’s ability to cope with complaints.

    Barclays also on Oct. 9 downgraded Tesla to the equivalent of a sell rating from “Neutral,” citing concern that the forthcoming Model X crossover will “provide yet another reality check on margins.”

    Tesla didn’t respond to Fortune’s request for comment. But Musk responded to the Consumer Reports downgrade via Twitter.

    He also noted that Consumer Reports had found that 97% of Tesla owners expect their next car to be from the company, which suggests a high satisfaction rate.

    Currently, Tesla loses about $4,000 per vehicle it sells based on second quarter sales volume and losses. And launching a new model increases costs in the short term. Plus, Musk’s insistence on putting gull-wing doors on the Model X is bound to create manufacturing complexity and reliability issues. There is a reason why gullwings don’t make it into mass production at other car companies.

    Tesla has been a high-risk, high-reward stock for investors. The risk takers have been largely drawn to Musk’s power of personality, his intent and role as a disruptor, preferring, for example, to bypass traditional car dealers in favor of company-owned studios to sell and service the cars. Too, the sexy design of the Model S has redefined what an electric car should and could look like—a set of exhaust-free wheels that a CEO or super model could see themselves driving without feeling like they are slumming or wearing the automotive equivalent of a hair-shirt.

    From its close on opening day of trading June 29 2010 at $23.83 to its high of $291 reached in September 2014 to where it is trading now, below $210, the stock has not been for the faint of heart or the conservative investor. It’s a “flyer stock.” There are still ten analysts following the stock with a “buy” rating, versus five with a “sell,” or “underperform,” according to NASDAQ.com.

    Tesla’s street value is roughly $27 billion. For a company that sold 31,665 vehicles last year, and might hit 55,000 this year if manages to stay on track, that is too much money to seriously consider Tesla a takeover target.

    Lutz’s warnings to Musk, and to investors, is that Tesla could have a lower ceiling for sales and profits than Musk and Tesla boosters think. Why? Because selling automobiles in the U.S. is not for the faint of heart. It is a very capital intensive, regulation intensive business fraught with obstacles that more experienced firms cope with every day.

    Musk is a disruptor operating in an industry most people think is over-ripe for disruption, especially in the selling process through dealers who may well rank lower than Congress and the media when it comes to consumer approval ratings. But Lutz believes Musk’s desire for company-owned facilities is a fool’s errand. As he writes,

    “You need a big building with service bays, chargers, and a trained sales force, plus all the necessary finance and accounting people. It ties up a staggering amount of capital, especially when you factor in inventory. Under a traditional franchise arrangement, the factory never has to carry that burden. Right now, Tesla does.”

    Where Tesla has succeeded is in making electric cars truly aspirational and beautiful from a styling standpoint. The Tesla Model S is an Armani suit or Kate Spade bag, while the Nissan Leaf, Ford Focus Electric and their like are Sketchers at Gucci prices with government subsidies.

    But the Tesla advantages could be eroding. The prices of electric vehicles are coming down as batteries become cheaper, and range is expanding. Already, the new Nissan Leaf redesign is much better looking than the original, and the range on a single charge is increasing 30%.

    The new Chevy Volt is sleeker with a longer electric range than the original, and Chevy is launching a cheaper Bolt EV next year. Worse for Tesla are the growing offerings of EV and extended-range electric (which run on electric motors with back up gas tanks)from BMW and Audi, who have far more experience and infrastructure in handling luxury buyers.

    If Musk can stay on track to sell more than 60,000 Model X EVs next year, and add some 30,000 Model X crossovers next year, as he’s stated he will, it will be a true test of Tesla’s staying power and credibility. If it goes badly, though, the electricity in both the Tesla and Musk brand will certainly dim.

    David Kiley, based in Ann Arbor, MI, is an award-winning business journalist and President Emeritus of the International Motor Press Association.