iPad Pro就能拯救平板电脑市场？

    苹果公司的iPad Pro已经开始发售，也许，亟待翻身的平板电脑市场正需要这样的产品。

    平板电脑市场呈直线下滑态势。研究机构国际数据公司（IDC）10月份发布报告称，今年第三季度平板电脑发货量为4870万部，同比下降12.6%。市场龙头苹果和三星的发货量分别减少了19.7%和17.1%。如果不是二合一平板电脑，也就是带有可拆卸键盘、兼具平板和笔记本电脑功能的那些产品，这个市场的形势可能会更糟。

    实际上，平板电脑市场问题多多。IDC指出，主要问题之一是越来越多的消费者开始转向大屏幕智能手机，或者说平板手机，而非小尺寸平板电脑，从而造成平板电脑市场显著放缓。更何况，人们现在持有保有平板电脑的时间比以前长得多，更换频率明显下降。

    对此，IDC全球移动设备季度追踪项目主管瑞安·里思指出：“我们得到的反馈依然表明，平板电脑的更新换代周期超过四年。”

    但市场仍在向前发展。除了二合一平板电脑，人们重新认识到大屏幕平板电脑也许是打开成功之门的钥匙。所谓大屏幕平板电脑，通常指的是屏幕尺寸达到或超过12英寸的平板电脑。

    就在短短几个月时间里，全球一流科技企业中就有三家推出了大尺寸平板电脑——iPad Pro的屏幕为12.9英寸，三星最近发布的Galaxy View则配备了18.4英寸屏幕，微软的最新平板电脑产品Surface Pro 4的屏幕尺寸也达到了12.3英寸。

    IDC研究主管让·菲利普·布沙尔指出，这三款产品表明，世界上一些顶尖的科技公司相信大屏幕产品将“有益于平板电脑市场”。根据IDC追踪每个季度追踪，他认为大屏幕也许是扭转市场的关键。

    布沙尔说：“平板电脑做得越来越大，原因是这方面的需求较为旺盛，就（目前的）平均售价而言，竞争还不是那么令人窒息，利润率也较高。借助这样的策略，厂商还可以在便携式个人电脑更新换代领域分得一大块蛋糕。”

    技术和市场研究机构Forrester Research副总裁兼首席分析师J.P.·冈德尔也认为，iPad Pro这样的产品将为平板电脑市场提供帮助。但他指出，这些产品的作用不是提升销量，而是带动整个市场的收入增速。

    冈德尔说：“大屏幕产品必将有利于平板电脑市场，但必须具体情况具体分析，价格较高的大尺寸平板电脑将有良好表现，比如iPad Pro和Surface Pro 4，但它们无法让销量达到价格较低的小屏幕产品在巅峰时期的水平。因此，我们不能继续把销量作为衡量市场的唯一指标，iPad Pro和售价99美元的7英寸安卓设备绝不属于同一个市场，所以真的不应该采用这样的思路。”

    另一个需要考虑的重要因素是，厂商也会因此受益。布沙尔和冈德尔都指出，大屏幕平板电脑的利润率要高得多。它们的定价通常远高于小屏幕产品，但成本不会上升那么多。因此，苹果和三星等公司推出的大屏幕平板电脑也许不会提高销量，但热门大屏幕产品有望显著提高收入并增厚利润，这得益于它们的单位利润高于尺寸较小（而且价格较低）的平板电脑。

    布沙尔说：“目前对小屏幕平板电脑的看法是成本超低，竞争格外激烈，利润率和回报率低。它们基本上以量取胜，或者像亚马逊那样，是提高Prime服务和广告等其他收入的手段。”

    他指出：“大屏幕平板电脑才是王道”，理由是单位利润率较高。

    虽然冈德尔和布沙尔都没有断言大屏幕产品是否足以终结平板电脑市场的直线下坠——毕竟，预见到这个市场会像现在这样陷入困境的人也很少，甚至没有——但他们都相信，随着几类消费者为了大屏幕平板电脑而进入市场，此类产品将开始影响小尺寸笔记本电脑的销售。

    冈德尔指出：“大屏幕平板电脑将吸引产消者（他们把乐趣融于事业）、流动性极强的上班族（现在他们可以在路上接触到比别人多得多的内容和App）、学生以及80后和90后。通过和生产率以及媒体消费（比如Netflix）搭上关系，这些产品为人们提供了流动性极强的移动计算方案。”

    他还说，大尺寸平板电脑对企业用户也有吸引力。Forrester的研究显示，2010年公司仅占平板电脑总采购量的6%；到2020年，这个数字将增至20%，这都要归功于大屏幕产品。

    布沙尔指出，看来市场趋势终于开始朝着有利的方向迈进了。平板电脑市场及厂商在困境中挣扎了几年之后，大屏幕和健康的需求（再加上适度的炒作）有望共同让这种产品走出阴霾。他认为：“消费者正在寻找一种新的东西，实际上就是能让他们变得富有成效的产品。眼下对大屏幕平板电脑的宣传力度也加大了。”

    换句话说就是，赶快呈上iPad Pro，市场已经准备好了。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    Apple’s iPad Pro is launching on Wednesday, and it may just be what the tablet market needs to stage a much-needed turnaround.

    The tablet market is in free fall. Research firm IDC reported in October that during the third quarter, total tablet shipments fell 12.6% year-over-year to 48.7 million units. Market leaders Apple AAPL -3.15% and Samsung SSNLF 4.76% saw shipments fall 19.7% and 17.1%, respectively. If not for two-in-one hybrids, or devices that come with a detachable keyboard so they may be used as a tablet or notebook, things would have been even worse for the market.

    The troubles facing the tablet market are numerous. One of the main issues, IDC reported, was that consumers were increasingly turning to large-screen smartphones, or “phablets,” rather than small-screen tablets, causing a significant slowdown in that end of the market. Meanwhile, owners are now holding onto their tablets for much longer, leading to a meaningful decline in the pace at which consumers are buying new tablets.

    “We continue to get feedback that tablet users are holding onto devices upwards of four years,” Ryan Reith, program director for IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Device Trackers, said in a statement.

    Still, the market is pressing on, and aside from growth in hybrids, there’s a renewed sense that large-screen tablets may be the ticket to success. In just the last couple of months, three of the world’s largest technology companies have unveiled large-screen tablets. Apple’s iPad Pro comes with a 12.9-inch screen, while Samsung’s recently unveiled Galaxy View features an 18.4-inch display. Microsoft’s MSFT -1.20% latest tablet, the Surface Pro 4, comes with a 12.3-inch screen.

    Those devices indicate that some of the world’s top tech companies believe big-screen tablets—which are often viewed as having screen sizes of 12 inches or larger—will “help the tablet market,” Jean Philippe Bouchard, research director at IDC, says. He added that IDC, which tracks the market each quarter, believes big-screen slates may be critical to a market turnaround.

    “Companies are going big because demand is stronger, it is less cut-throat in terms of average selling price (for the moment) and margins are better,” Bouchard says. “It’s also a way to take a chunk of the aging portable PC installed base.”

    J.P. Gownder, vice president and principal analyst at Forrester Research, agrees that devices like Apple’s iPad Pro will help the tablet market, but he argues that the benefit they’ll bring won’t be in unit sales, but rather marketwide revenue growth.

    “Large-screen tablets will definitely help the tablet market, but we have to put things into context: Big, expensive devices like iPad Pro or Surface Pro 4 will do well, but they won’t generate the volume that small, cheap tablets did at their peak,” he says. “So we have to stop measuring the market just by volume: An iPad Pro and a $99 Android 7-inch tablet simply aren’t part of the same market, and shouldn’t really be thought of as such.”

    There’s also a benefit for vendors. According to both Bouchard and Gownder, companies have much higher margins on large-screen tablets. They’re typically priced at substantially more than their smaller-screen counterparts but don’t have the same leap in cost. For companies like Apple and Samsung, therefore, offering a large-screen tablet may not result in more unit sales, but a popular big-screen slate could generate far more revenue and boost profits, thanks to higher per-unit profit compared to their smaller (and cheaper) counterparts.

    “Small screen tablets are currently perceived as ultra-low-cost devices and ultra-competitive with low margins and return,” Bouchard says. “It’s basically a volume game or in Amazon’s case, a play to increase other revenues such as Prime or ads.”

    “Big screen tablets are the way to go,” he added, pointing to higher per-unit margins.

    While neither Gownder nor Bouchard could say if the devices will do enough to end the tablet market’s free fall—few, if any, after all, could have predicted its current troubles—the researchers believe that big-screen tablets will start to eat into smaller notebook sales as several types of customers enter the market for large-screen slates.

    “Large-screen tablets will appeal to prosumers (who mix business with pleasure), hyper-mobile workers (who can now access a great deal more content and many more apps on the go), students, and millennials,” Gownder says. “By tapping into productivity as well as the consumption of media (like Netflix NFLX 2.59% ), these devices offer a hyper-mobile option for on-the-go computing.”

    Gownder added that larger tablets will also appeal to corporate customers. In 2010, just 6% of all tablet purchases were made by businesses, Forrester research shows. That figure will jump to 20% by 2020, thanks to big-screen tablets.

    Ultimately, Bouchard says, the trend seems to be heading in the right direction. After years of trouble for the tablet market and the companies that make them, the confluence of big screens and healthy demand (along with a nice dose of hype) could lead the device type out of its dark ages.

    “[Customers are] looking for something else, essentially something they can be productive on,” Bouchard says. “There’s also a bigger hype at the moment for larger screens.”

    In other words, bring on the iPad Pro. The market is ready.