中国GDP真的只增长6.5%，局面会怎样？

中国上一季度的GDP增速首次“破七”，探低至6.9%。

中国国家主席习近平日前作出迄今为止最明确的表态：中国经济增长目标将调低至6.5%。尽管官方目标直到明年3月份公布备受期待的“十三五规划”时才会揭晓，但北京方面已经开始大力宣传“经济新常态”理念。这意味着，更低的经济增长速度（虽然依旧高于国际水平）和经济体制改革将并行存在。

毫无疑问，中国政府的首要目标是保持经济稳定增长。10月30日央行降息的目的正是刺激经济。此次降息后，金融机构的利率将下调0.25%，降至4.35%。相较于目前的国际标准，这一水平依旧较高，这也为未来大幅降息留出余地——这是许多国家目前不具备的“奢侈品”。

降息几乎不能被看做中国经济陷入困境的迹象之一。这样做的原因可能是，上个季度的GDP增速低于7%。尽管许多经济学家怀疑中国经济的统计数据有水分，但他们依旧认为，6.5%的增速符合中国经济转型期的现状。当然，中国经济将很难达到更高的增速。事实上，随着中国逐渐迈入发达国家行列，经济增速势必将继续走低。

向消费型经济转型将为私人投资者带来了机遇。种种迹象显示，中国政府对经济进一步自由化持支持态度。

服务业在中国GDP的占比已增至44%，较2011年的44%大幅增加。中国目前占全球智能手机市场的34%，钻石和高端珠宝市场的12%，在线游戏市场的18%。但不健全的金融市场则成为投资的障碍。因此，金融市场改革也成为政府关注的要点之一。

事实证明，金融行业改革并不容易。政府正在鼓励私人资本通过私人投资的银行进入银行业，但主导金融行业的依旧是国有银行。银行提供的信贷仍然占融资总额的90%。

当然，从放款人的角度来看，为国有或国家控股实体融资的风险，远远低于为中小企业融资。中国经济存在的一个显而易见的问题是，中小企业缺乏资金，改革的目标之一自然是为它们提供充足的贷款。政府一直在推动私营金融公司成为国有银行贷款市场之外的另外一种信贷来源。

政府的首要任务是建立多层次的资本市场系统，包括股票、债券、期货和私募股权市场，并允许市场发挥决定性作用。但国有企业持续存在的影响力、地位及结构，将使这项任务变得异常艰难。国有企业的主要股东依旧是行使管理控制权地方或中央政府。

上市公司大部分为国有企业。出于政治和社会原因，政府需要对它们进行扶持。这些国有企业从国有银行主导的银行体系当中获得最多的信贷，并且吸引了风险厌恶型投资者的资本。国有企业享有的被保护地位，使放款人不愿意投资除银行业之外的领域，尤其是扶持中小企业。这种地位势必会导致资本市场扭曲。

到目前为止，旨在推动国有企业对市场做出更快反应更快的努力鲜有成功。这意味着，中国金融市场的进一步发展，将取决于信贷公司、私人银行和专注于中小企业上市的“第三板”市场的发展。（财富中文网）

本文作者何卫平（音）为莫纳什大学法律专业讲师。

译者：刘进龙/汪皓

审校：任文科

Last quarter’s GDP growth missed the 7% mark.

Overnight, Chinese President Xi Jinping gave the strongest indication yet the country will revise down its economic growth goal to 6.5%.

The official target will not be known until China releases its highly anticipated 13th five-year plan in March next year, but play has already been made on the idea of the “economic new norm.” This means lower percentage rates of economic growth (although rates still high in international terms) coupled with structural economic reform.

Undoubtedly, the primary goal is to keep the economy growing strongly. The latest interest rate cut on Oct. 30 was intended to stimulate the economy. As a result, the financial institution interest rate was reduced by 0.25% to 4.35%. This remains high by current international standards and leaves room for further significant cuts, a luxury not currently available in many economies.

The cut can hardly be considered a sign of economic desperation. It may have been prompted because last quarter’s GDP growth missed the 7% mark, but 6.5%, even allowing for the alleged suspect nature of Chinese economic statistics, is still a rate many economists consider consistent with the “transitioning” economy. Certainly percentage growth rates higher than these are unlikely to be seen again and growth is in fact sure to trend lower as China moves to become a developed economy.

The transition to a more consumer-based economy offers opportunities for private investors, especially given signs of official support for continuing economic liberalization.

The services sector has grown to 52% of the country’s GDP, as opposed to 44 % in 2011. China now accounts for 34% of the world’s smart phone market, 12% of the diamond and high end jewellery market, and 18% of the online games market. But poorly developed financial markets are an impediment to investment. Accordingly, financial market reform is a matter of government concern.

The path of reform in the financial sector has proven to be difficult. The government is encouraging private capital to enter the banking sector via the privately-funded banks, but the sector remains dominated by government controlled banks. Credit provided by banks still makes up 90% of all financing.

Of course, from the perspective of lenders, financing state-owned or controlled entities (SOEs) involves less risk than financing small to medium enterprises (SMEs). One perceived problem with the economy is this lack of funding for SMEs, and naturally a goal of reform is to provide adequate credit for smaller organizations. There has been an attempt to promote private finance companies as an alternative source of credit to the state controlled bank lending markets.

The government’s overarching goal is to establish a multi-layered capital markets system including shares, debt, futures, and private equity markets. The objective is to allow markets to play a decisive role. But the continuing influence and position of the SOEs and their structure, in which the main shareholders remain local or central government authorities who exercise managerial control, makes this difficult.

Listed companies mostly remain SOEs, which need to be supported for political and social reasons, and these capture most of the credit available from the state dominated banking system and capital from risk averse investors. The protected position of SOEs discourages lenders from investing in places other than the banking sector, and in particular from supporting SMEs. The protected position of SOEs inevitably distorts the capital markets.

There has so far been little success in making SOEs more market responsive. This means further development of financial markets in China depends on the growth of credit companies, privately funded banks, and also the “third board” market, which focuses on SME listings.

He Weiping is a lecturer in law at Monash University.