中国该反省自己的“非洲战略”了！

第六届中非合作论坛正在南非召开。该会议已有15年历史，一直是中国和非洲国家确定投资、贸易以及融合事务的主要会议，而本次论坛则是习近平担任中国国家主席后的第一届。

面对非洲这个快速增长的大陆，作为全球第二大经济体的中国，看来打算将在非投资再次提高一倍，中非关系由此可能更进一步。但这种关系对非洲的影响会一直像对中国那么好吗？其他开始从中受益的国家可以学到些什么呢？

散播财富和投资

虽然中国国内经济增长开始放缓，而且今后几年预计“只能”实现个位数增长，但中国仍是全球经济发展速度最快的经济体之一。作为近几十年经济增长的标杆，中国越来越急于将自己的财富和影响力散播开来。中国经济腾飞的部分原因就是获得了大量的外商直接投资。

随着中国逐渐接近全球最大经济体这个角色，并承担相应责任，流出中国的资金也越来越多。预计，中国很快就会超过美国，成为其他国家的最大投资者。

相关迹象之一就是中国牵头设立了手握1000亿美元资本金的亚投行，与世界银行、国际货币基金组织形成三足鼎立之势；另一个体现则是中巴经济走廊，它西起巴基斯坦港口城市瓜达尔，东至中国新疆，相关协议的金额达到创纪录的460亿美元。

目前，中国的直接对外投资规模估计为5310亿美元，其中4%（约220亿美元）的资金进入了非洲，投入到了自然资源开采、金融、基础设施、发电、纺织和家电等领域。这个数字乍看起来很小，但它对非洲经济的影响重大而长远，尤其对撒哈拉以南的非洲地区更是如此。目前，得到投资最多的有尼日利亚、苏丹、南非和安哥拉。

除了投资项目，中国还迅速成为非洲的最大贸易伙伴。2014年，中非贸易额为1660亿美元。这一指标还有望不断上升，预计到2030年将达到1.7万亿美元。

就业机会难确保

然而，尽管规模巨大，但大多数投资对非洲的整体竞争力都有不利影响。这种情况可谓由来已久，一方面是由于，这些项目的基础都是政府最高层领导人之间达成的协议，并未在竞争环境下进行透明招标；另一方面，这些合资项目的大多数员工一直都是中国人，这样就难以实现在当地创造就业机会的承诺。

就算有些项目雇佣了非洲当地人，也常常无视当地法规和制度，有时会带来很不安全的工作环境。比如，在中国经营的赞比亚铜矿山，只有工作满两年的员工才能配备安全帽，而且矿井中通风条件很差，致死事故时有发生。

大部分的中国在非项目会又由中国人获得，他们会从一个项目转到另一个项目。2000-2011年，由于中国劳动者不断增多，南非人可能已经失去了7.5万个工作机会。在尼日利亚，随着中国低价纺织品的流入，有80%的尼日利亚纺织公司被迫关门歇业。

中国企业的违法行为可能也会影响非洲人对它们的印象。举例来说，按照法律，25英亩（近8.1万平方米）及以下的小范围矿山开采只能由加纳公民进行，然而，许多中国人与当地土地所有者合作进行黄金开采，全然不顾加纳法律的约束。由此产生的结果是，许多非洲人都觉得自己正在被外来者所利用。

单方面贸易隐忧

可能更糟的是，在中国和非洲之间流通的商品也没能改变对中国投资的担忧。

中国从非洲购买的主要是自然资源，比如矿产和金属；非洲国家从中国进口的则以各类成品为主，包括机械、电器、塑料和橡胶等。这样的交易可能对双方都有利，但人们往往会因此认为，中国正在利用非洲的自然资源来满足自己的工业生产需求。而且，中国向非洲国家出口的产品，往往质量很差、价格很低，这不仅削弱了非洲公司的竞争力，还让它们越发依赖于中国。

最新研究表明，中国并没有显著提高非洲的技术水平，也没有转移足够的生产技术，或者让非洲的生产率水平得到实质性提升。

如何扭转局势？

最近，中国在对待非洲时变得更有策略，以免让人觉得中非交流只会让中国受益。比如说，外界相信，在今年的中非合作论坛上，中国将设法减少对非洲只重商贸而受到的广泛批评，具体做法之一就是让非洲公司更多地获得资金渠道。实际上，2001-2010年，中国进出口银行为非洲国家提供了627亿美元贷款，比世界银行多125亿美元左右。

同时，和许多人的看法相反，中国的投资并不是集中在法制不健全的非洲国家。实际上，获得中国投资最多的是南非。只是在西方政府退避三舍的其他非洲国家，中国人和中国公司的身影往往更为显眼。

事实上，正如研究者指出的那样，中国的投资重点并非自然资源，而是服务业和制造业。这表明，中国正在以更大的力度来帮助非洲国家增强竞争力。

最近，中国一直倾向于减少对大型石油和矿产协议的宣传，而是把重点放在可以创造就业机会的领域，放在基础设施投资和技术转移方面。今年的中非合作论坛也将体现出这一点。

但相对于非洲资源遭人利用的顾虑，中国为铁路及其他基础设施项目提供的贷款足以抵消前者的影响吗？

中国政府面临的挑战是，在进一步加深和非洲关系的同时，也要消除负面影响。中非合作论坛带来的就是这样的机会，这对中国及其对外政策模式，以及不断迈出国门的中国企业来说，可能是一条扭转局势的途径。

要做到这一点，关键在于确保在非洲运营的中国公司遵守当地法律法规，而且改变对当地人的看法，将他们视为平等的生意伙伴。唯有如此，中国才能在非洲既获得人心，又获得矿产。

马克•埃斯波西托是哈佛大学商业和经济学教授。特伦斯•谢是欧洲管理学院金融学副教授兼i7创新和竞争力研究所竞争力研究负责人。本文最初发表于The Conversation。（财富中文网）

译者：Charlie

校对：詹妮

China’s ties to Africa are likely to get stronger this year as the world’s biggest economy appears poised to once again double its investments across the fast-growing continent.

The run-up to the sixth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) to be held in South Africa is under way. The forum—in its 15th year and the first held under President Xi Jinping’s administration—has been the main venue for setting the investment, trade, and integration agenda between China and countries in Africa.

But has this relationship been as good for Africa as it has been for China? And what can other countries beginning to receive more of its largesse learn from it?

Spreading wealth

As the poster child for economic growth in recent decades, China has been increasingly keen to spread its wealth and influence around.

Even though the country is suffering from a slowdown and expected to achieve “only” single-digit growth rate in the coming years, it remains one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. Its success has been, in part, the result of it being the recipient of huge amounts of foreign direct investment itself.

As China gradually embraces the roles and responsibilities of the world’s biggest economy as well, it is increasingly reversing that flow of cash and is expected to soon surpass the U.S. as the largest investor in other countries.

The inauguration of the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, a rival to the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, is a sign of that, with its $100 billion in financial firepower, as is the new China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which will run from Gwadar in Pakistan to China’s western Xinjiang region, supported by a historical agreement of over $46 billion.

Indeed, the amount of investments made by China abroad is estimated to be $531 billion in outward foreign direct investment, with 4% of it—$22 billion—going to investments in natural resource extraction, finance, infrastructure, power generation, textiles, and home appliances in Africa.

That’s a small sum at first glance, but its economic impact to the region is both huge and far-reaching, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, with the biggest investments made in Nigeria, Sudan, South Africa, and Angola.

In addition to investment projects, China has quickly become the continent’s biggest trading partner, with trade volume of $166 billion in 2014. This is likely tocontinue to increase and reach an estimated $1.7 trillion by 2030.

Losing hearts, minds, and jobs?

But despite the substantial investments, most of the them have been routinely cast as detrimental to Africa’s overall competitiveness.

The projects are dependent on deals made at the highest political levels. They lack competitive and transparent bidding processes, and most of the work force employed at these ventures has been Chinese. Promises of job creation have not been fulfilled. Further, when Africans are hired, local rules and regulations are often flouted, leading at times to poor safety.

For instance, at Chinese-run mines in Zambia’s copper belt, employees must work for two years before they get safety helmets. Ventilation below ground is poor, and deadly accidents occur almost on a daily basis.

More frequently, jobs are lost to Chinese employees, who are ferried in project by project. For example, the growing Chinese presence in South Africa may have cost the country 75,000 jobs from 2000 to 2011. In Nigeria, the influx of low-priced Chinese textile goods has caused 80% of Nigerian companies in this industry to close.

Africans’ impression of Chinese firms could also be shaped by illegal practices carried out by them.

For example, by law, mining on small plots of 25 acres or less is restricted to Ghanaian nationals. However, many Chinese continue to explore for gold in conjunction with local landowners, even thoughregulations have made it clear that such practice is illegal. The result: Many Africans see themselves to be exploited by the newcomers.

One-sided trade?

Perhaps making matter worse, the kinds of goods that the two partners trade with each other have done little to change such perception.

Whereas China buys from Africa mainly natural resources—minerals and metals—African countries import primarily the finished results, ranging from machinery and electrical goods to plastics and rubber.

Such an arrangement could benefit both parties, but it’s more often seen as China exploiting Africa’s natural resources to feed its need for industrial output.

At the same time, by exporting cheap—and often shoddy—manufactured goods to African countries, local companies not only become less competitive but they also grow increasingly dependent on China.

Recent research has also suggested that the Chinese presence has failed to bring significant skill developments, adequate technological transfer or any measurable upgrade to the productivity levels to this part of the world.

Jobs and infrastructure, not just oil and mines

Recently, China has become more tactful in its approach to Africa, trying to preempt the perception that its presence in Africa may be one-sided only.

In this year’s China-Africa forum, for example, the Middle Kingdom is believed to be making efforts to mitigate the broad criticisms of its “mercantilist” approach toward Africa by, among other things, offering more access to capital for local companies. The fact is that China’s Export-Import Bank extended$62.7 billion in loans to African countries from 2001 to 2010, some $12.5 billion more than the World Bank.

And contrary to what many may believe, China’s investment is not concentrated in countries with inadequate rule of law. The biggest recipient is in fact South Africa—though the Chinese presence is often more visible in other countries from which Western governments have shied away.

Indeed, as researchers have pointed out, Chinese investments are not concentrated in natural resources: Services are the most common sector, with significant investments in manufacturing as well. This suggests that China is now doing more to help African countries to build up their competitiveness.

Lately, the Middle Kingdom has tended to reduce to publicize major oil and mining contracts and instead has focused more on areas where it’s creating jobs, investing in infrastructure, and transferring technology. And the latest Forum on China-Africa Cooperation is meant to showcase that.

But will loans to support new railroads and other infrastructure projects be enough to make up for concerns that African resources are being exploited?

The challenge for Xi, and China, is to further develop the relationship and at the same time alter sometimes negative perceptions. That’s the opportunity presented by the forum, which could be a game changer for China, its external policy model and its growing footprint beyond its borders.

Key to that is ensuring Chinese companies operating in Africa comply with local rules and regulations. They also have to change their views of the locals, so that the latter are seen as equal business partners.

Only by making such fundamental shifts can China capture people’s hearts and minds and not just their mines.

Mark Esposito is a professor of business & economics at Harvard University. Terence Tse is an associate professor of finance and head of competitiveness studies at i7 Institute for Innovation and Competitiveness at ESCP Europe. This piece was originally published on The Conversation.