电视真没人看了，都是智能手机的天下

市场调研公司尼尔森的最新调查，证实了一个已成为传统看法的事实：智能机正在步步为赢，传统电视则节节败退。在电视行业最想获得的18岁至34岁年龄组观众中，这一现象尤其明显。

尼尔森的调查显示，传统电视在各年龄组的收视率在2009年—2010年度达到峰值，自此之后一路下滑。在2009年—2010年度之前，电视观众自1949年以来每年都在增长。

此项调查是尼尔森首次尝试对传统电视、网络、手机以及其它设备上的视频观看行为给予综合评估。数据显示，今年5月，在18岁至34岁年龄组中，智能机、平板电脑以及流媒体机顶盒、游戏主机等电视连接设备的使用量同比增长了25%以上，达到每分钟850万人左右。相比之下，同年龄组的电视观看人数下降10%至每分钟840万人。

很明显，在用户花在智能机、平板电脑以及电视连接设备的时间中，部分用于观看电视节目。但是在许多情况下，观众将本花在电视观看上的时间用在了智能机等移动设备上，这些设备上出现的广告被用户跳过或移除，这大幅影响了尼尔森的客户群。

A new study of media and attention by Nielsen Co. confirms what has now become conventional wisdom: Smartphones are winning and traditional television is losing, especially when it comes to viewers in the most desirable 18 to 34 demographic.

Nielsen also says that traditional TV viewing by all age groups peaked in the 2009-2010 season, and has been on the decline ever since. Until that point, the audience for TV had grown every year since 1949.

The study is Nielsen’s first attempt to come up with a comprehensive measurement of video-viewing behavior across traditional TV, the web, mobile phones, and other devices.

The data underlying the report shows that among 18 to 34-year-olds, the use of smartphones, tablets, and TV-connected devices such as streaming boxes or game consoles increased by more than 25% in May compared with the same period a year earlier, to about 8.5 million people per minute.

In that same category, TV viewing fell by 10% to 8.4 million people per minute.

Obviously, some portion of the time that these viewers spend on smartphones, tablets and TV-connected devices is devoted to watching TV shows. But in many cases they are time-shifted, and the advertising that comes with them is skipped or removed, which affects Nielsen’s client base significantly.

尼尔森将这份报告称之为可比较的指标报告，因为这是该公司首次将传统电视与Netflix等流媒体服务、移动设备、YouTube等网络服务的视频观看在同等标准下进行整合。尼尔森指出，许多通过YouTube、Facebook等服务进行的在线视频观看比较，对实际观众的评估有误导性。用户在一个小时或以上时间内观看一段视频的时间可能达到数十分钟，但是一些调研公司对于观众的认定不需要这么长时间的视频观看时间。用户观看了几秒钟的视频可能就会被一些调研公司认定为观众。

“我们的第一感觉可能是，数千万的视频观看量拥有的观众要超过电视节目拥有的几百万观众，但实际上两项数字得出的方式完全不同，”尼尔森表示，“电视观众指的是一个节目平均每分钟的观看人数，而不是数字媒体通常对视频总播放时间内对观看人数的衡量。整体来说，观看电视广播的用户数量更为庞大。”

Nielsen calls its report the Comparable Metrics report, because it’s the first time the measurement company has tried to combine equivalent ratings for usage of traditional TV and radio with the use of streaming services like Netflix, mobile devices, and web services like YouTube.

The company also takes pains to point out that many comparisons of video viewing online through services like YouTube or Facebook confuse the measurement of actual audiences — in the sense of people watching a video for multiple minutes at a time over an hour or more—with the measurement of transitory viewers who are only present for a few seconds or more.

“It may appear on first glance that tens of millions of video views is a much larger number than a few million persons in the audience of a TV program, but the two numbers are reporting completely different things,” Nielsen says. “The TV audience expresses viewers in an average minute of the program rather than across the total duration, as digital media is commonly reported. The number of persons exposed to a telecast as a whole is a much larger figure.”

在线音乐零售商eMusic前CEO、美国风投公司Venrock媒体投资人大卫·帕克曼(David Pakman)曾表示，用户的注意力正持续从传统媒体形式转向流媒体游戏平台Twitch、阅后即焚应用Snapchat等新平台。年轻用户的行为代表着未来，Facebook、YouTube等产品首先被青少年使用，然后再扩大到年龄更大的人群中。

这可能不是尼尔森或尼尔森的客户想要听到的，后者多来自传统电视或电视广告行业，但这是事实。他们应该清楚的是，当这种趋势开始主导尼尔森等公司的分析报告时，一切可能就为时已晚。（财富中文网）

This paragraph can be read as one long veiled reference to a recent post on Medium from media investor David Pakman of Venrock, former CEO of eMusic.

In that post, which was entitled “May I Have Your Attention Please,” Pakman talked about how attention has shifted and is continuing to shift away from traditional forms of media to new platforms such as Twitch (which streams video people playing video games), as well as Snapchat and others.

“The behavior of the young is predictive of the future. Facebook, YouTube, Twitch, Tumblr, Snapchat, Reddit, WhatsApp, Instagram, Vine and YouNow were all catalyzed by teen use first, and later spread to older age groups,” Pakman wrote. “If you want to know which companies to bet on, just follow the attention.” The post got some push-back from a number of media-watchers, including Joe Marchese of Fox Networks, who said — in a response very similar to the one Nielsen makes in its report — that this is comparing apples and oranges.

All of these criticisms of video measurement on YouTube, Facebook and other platforms have some truth to them, including Nielsen’s. But it doesn’t change the fact that for growing numbers of users, particularly younger users, the video-watching experience is driven primarily by Snapchat and YouTube and Twitch and Facebook. It may not be apples to apples, but they are growing and TV is not.

That may not be what Nielsen wants to hear — or its clients, a majority of whom come from the traditional TV and TV advertising industries. But it is the truth. And those groups should remember that by the time those kinds of trends start dominating the data in analytics reports like Nielsen’s, it is usually too late.