苹果2016年可能巨资收购这四家公司

手握2000多亿美元现金的苹果公司在2016年可能会找到花钱之道。

今年12月10日，在线投资银行FBR & Co.分析师丹尼尔•艾夫斯在给投资者的报告中指出，他认为2016年苹果可能把部分资金用于一次大规模收购。潜在目标有四个，分别是Adobe、Box、GoPro和特斯拉。艾夫斯说，苹果或许会认真考虑扩展产品线的问题，途径可能就是收购这些行业龙头。

艾夫斯写道：“苹果通过iPhone建立的消费电子帝国处于全盛时期，其他公司难以匹敌。我们认为，苹果首席执行官蒂姆•库克目前的关注重点是为今后10年内打造新的前沿技术和产品。”

艾夫斯接受《财富》杂志采访时表示，苹果“面临着新的形势”。他认为，苹果投资于那些可能帮它延伸产品线的公司，关键原因是智能手机行业增长放缓引发的担忧，以及“需要在核心iPhone业务以外找到增长点”。

他说：“苹果需要推出其他类别的产品，而且我们认为收购比自创更合理。在这方面有一定的机会，他们需要在全盘考虑之后作出决定，而且要摒弃常规做法，实施一次具有战略意义的收购。”

艾夫斯在报告中指出，收购Adobe或Box可能有助于苹果加强和其他企业的关系。在他看来，个人云存储服务商Box在企业领域的业务规模也很大，因而有可能帮助苹果找到进入办公市场的新途径；Adobe同样有望给苹果的企业业务带来强劲动力。

艾夫斯在报告中指出：“Adobe可能成为进入企业领域的理想渠道，掌握处于主导位置的创作平台可能提升苹果硬件产品（Mac电脑、iPad和iPhone）在这个重要用户群体中的销售水平。苹果还有可能进入企业数字化转型的核心市场，因为Adobe的文件云/营销云应用正在帮助企业抓住数字营销的增长、企业移动设备激增以及物联网带来的机遇。”

Box目前的市值为16亿美元；Adobe则要大得多，市值为442亿美元。

不过，2016年苹果将斥巨资进行收购的预期几乎找不到先例。虽然在过去几年中收购了30多家公司，但其中大多数都是小公司，收购价都在数千万美元。通常，苹果会终止被收购方的运作，并将其核心业务融入自己的现有平台，比如Maps、iCloud和iTunes。

近来，苹果进行的最大一笔收购是去年的Beats Electronics，收购价为30亿美元。从那时起，苹果再也没有实施过大型并购，甚至连一点儿迹象也没有。

同时，苹果单季利润仍可达到数十亿美元，手中的现金也不断增多。这当然没有逃过投资者的目光，而且这些投资者都希望苹果返还一些现金。过去几年中，苹果也采取了相应措施，除了回购股票，它还为美国股市分红做出了最大的贡献。但它一直没有进行过大规模收购。

在艾夫斯看来，有充分理由认为2016年的情况将与以往不同。他指出，便携式相机厂商GoPro可能成为苹果的主要收购目标。艾夫斯认为，GoPro的便携式相机“处于苹果的智能手机、可穿戴设备和多媒体产品的交叉领域，位置很独特。”市值26亿美元的GoPro可能还有助于苹果打开其他产品领域的“大门”，包括无人机和虚拟现实。他说，在这些领域中，苹果“一直扮演着追赶者的角色”。

此外，艾夫斯也不愿放弃苹果收购特斯拉的想法。虽然他承认这种可能性不高，但他指出，苹果似乎很想生产电动汽车，而收购目前市值296亿美元的特斯拉可以“加快苹果的步伐”，让它更迅速地进入这个市场。

当然，相信特斯拉很有价值的不只艾夫斯一人。实际上，特斯拉创始人兼CEO埃隆•穆斯克去年曾披露，苹果要跟他“谈谈”。不过，穆斯克说自己无意将特斯拉转让给任何公司，更不用说苹果了。随后，一直有报道对“苹果收购特斯拉”泼冷水。

艾夫斯相信，如果苹果决定收购上述公司中的一个（或多个），整合过程将很迅速。他对《财富》杂志表示，被收购方很可能保留自己的品牌，但核心产品可能并入苹果的业务。最终，至少部分产品会使用苹果的品牌。

苹果、Box、Adobe和GoPro均拒绝就艾夫斯的推测发表评论。特斯拉尚未就此作出回应。（财富中文网）

译者：Charlie

校对：詹妮

Apple has over $200 billion in cash, and in 2016, may just find a way to spend it.

Daniel Ives, an analyst at FBR & Co., on Dec. 10 wrote in an investor report that he believes 2016 could be the year Apple uses some of its cash to make a big acquisition. Pointing to four companies—Adobe, Box, GoPro, and Tesla —Ives said that Apple may be thinking seriously about expanding its product lineup and will use those industry giants to do it.

“While Apple has built its golden consumer empire around its unrivaled iPhone franchise, we believe [Apple CEO Tim] Cook’s crystal ball is now focused on building out new technology growth frontiers/product areas for the next decade,” Ives wrote.

In an interview with Fortune, Ives said that Apple is “facing a new paradigm.” He pointed to concerns over slower growth in the smartphone industry and the “need to put fuel in the engine outside of the core iPhone franchise” as key reasons for Apple to invest in companies that could help it expand its product lineup.

“Apple needs new product categories and buying makes more sense than building in our opinion,” he says. “There’s a window of opportunity here and they need to call an audible, go away from usual playbook, and do a deal that makes strategic sense.”

In his note, Ives argued that buying Adobe or Box could help the company improve its relationships with the corporate world. He argues that Box, which provides cloud-based storage to consumers but also has a strong presence in the corporate world, could help the iPhone maker find a new way into the office. Adobe, he says, would also provide a nice boost for Apple’s corporate business.

“Adobe would provide a nice pipeline into the enterprise; gaining control of the dominant platform for creatives could give Apple a boost in selling its hardware (Macs, iPads, iPhones) into this all-important user base,” he wrote to investors. “Apple would also be at the center of the digital transformation within enterprises, as Adobe’s Document Cloud/Marketing Cloud applications are helping enterprises grapple with the growth of digital marketing, proliferation of mobile devices in the enterprise, and Internet of Things.”

Box currently has a market cap of $1.6 billion. Adobe, a much larger company, has a $44.2 billion market cap.

Still, there is little precedent for Ives to claim that Apple could open its wallet for big acquisitions in 2016. While Apple has made more than 30 acquisitions over the last few years, most have been small firms that it buys for tens of millions of dollars. Those companies are often shuttered and their core features integrated into Apple’s existing platforms, including Maps, iCloud, and iTunes.

Apple’s biggest acquisition in recent memory was its pickup last year of Beats Electronics for $3 billion. Since then, the company hasn’t made a major acquisition and has shown no signs that it might.

Meanwhile, Apple continues to generate billions of dollars in profit each quarter and stockpile its cash. That, of course, hasn’t gone unnoticed by investors, who have wanted some of that cash back. Over the last few years, Apple has responded by being among the largest dividend distributors on Wall Street and buying back shares. Major acquisitions, however, have been elusive.

For his part, Ives believes that there are credible reasons to believe 2016 could be a different year. He pointed to action camera maker GoPro, which he says, would be a strong acquisition target for Apple. He argues that GoPro’s action cameras “are uniquely positioned at the intersection of Apple’s smartphone, wearables, and multimedia offerings.” He believes that GoPro, which has a market cap of $2.6 billion, could also help Apple “open the door” to other product areas, including drones and virtual reality. In those areas, he says, Apple “has been playing catch-up.”

Ives also wouldn’t let the idea of a Tesla buyout die. While he acknowledged that Apple acquiring Tesla would be a long-shot, he says that the iPhone maker seems committed to making electric cars, and buying up Tesla, which is currently valued at $29.6 billion, would “accelerate the move” to that market.

Of course, Ives is not alone in believing Tesla is valuable. In fact, Tesla founder and CEO Elon Musk revealed last year that he was approached by Apple for “talks.” Musk, however, said that he has no interest in selling Tesla to any other company, let alone Apple. Subsequent reports have since thrown cold water on the idea that Apple would buy Tesla.

In the event Apple decides to acquire one (or more) of these companies, Ives believes the integration may be swift. He told Fortune that it’s likely the acquisition targets would keep their brand names, but their core products would be integrated into Apple’s own. Eventually, at least some of those products would get Apple branding.

Apple, Box, Adobe, and GoPro declined to comment on Ives’ speculation. Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment.