2016会是“虚拟现实元年”吗？你最好先看看这些信息

自2012年以来，Oculus Rift一直都是虚拟现实领域的“模范生”——去年，Facebook斥资20亿美元收购Oculus，令其身价陡增。现在，虚拟现实爱好者们正在焦急等待着Oculus Rift头盔的具体上市日期，但该公司仍然犹抱琵琶半遮面。

在11月末的“游戏大奖”活动上，许多人期望Oculus创始人帕尔默•勒基将公布这一产品上市日期和价格。但他只是介绍了一款即将上市的新游戏《摇滚乐队VR版》。不过，Oculus此前曾宣布将在今年年底之前开始预售，这一计划并没有改变，帕尔默也在活动上重申Oculus Rift将在2016年第1季度上市。

虚拟现实界对Rift翘首以盼的同时，Oculus和三星联合推出的产品Gear VR已经吸引了许多人的注意。虽然还没有官方统计数据，但Gear VR的销量似乎异常火爆，这款设备在亚马逊上已经脱销，三星官网也宣布，无法保证在12月25日前发货。

准备在明年大展身手的虚拟现实头戴设备还有HTC和Valve联合推出的The Vive，以及索尼的PlayStation VR（原名“墨菲斯计划”）。这两款产品并未公布上市日期，不过预计将在明年上半年发售。

无论是在技术上，还是对于娱乐业而言，虚拟现实都是一项巨大的进步，但分析师警告，虽然媒体一直在热炒“2016年是虚拟现实元年”的说法（或许也是增强现实的元年，这取决于微软增强现实产品Hololens的表现），但虚拟现实行业在2016年或将迎来慢热开局。

麦格理资本公司的本•沙克特表示：“打个不太常用的比方，比如棒球赛，我们认为，现在连第一局都尚未开始。在虚拟现实/增强现实领域，我们才刚刚进入停车场，接下来才是停车场派对的时间。三星带来了一箱六瓶装的百威清啤酒，Facebook打来电话说要带一种新的微酿啤酒，索尼可能带来一款更大众化的美味爱尔啤酒。到2016年底，我们就能清楚谷歌正在‘酝酿’什么，或许苹果也会驻足观望，观察这个行业的形势。只有在2016年之后，虚拟现实/增强现实的竞赛才算真正开始。”

在本周末的PlayStation体验会上，索尼将展示更多虚拟现实技术，即将发布的新游戏将在此次活动上首次亮相。2015年，Valve和HTC没有按计划发布The Vive，而HTC目前依然无法摆脱财务困境，这两家公司基本上已经进入了沉默期。

内容对于虚拟现实至关重要，尤其是在游戏领域。市场上早已有开发工具，然而，尽管有报道称注入虚拟现实领域的投资已达到40亿美元，但市场对虚拟现实获得全线突破的预期依旧相对较低。

沙克特认为：“某些设备给出的承诺过高，最终可能无法达到预——这是不可避免的。但只要这些设备开始进入消费者手中，并且开发者发布的内容能够超越最初给人的新鲜感，带来真正独一无二的，有用的体验，那么在未来十年内，随着虚拟现实/增强现实技术的发展，娱乐、通信和许多企业功能都将发生翻天覆地的变化。”

就连投入大量资源创造虚拟现实游戏的开发者也认为，虚拟现实技术将沿着曲线轨迹缓慢发展。

CCG Games公司有3个工作室，共40人正在开发虚拟现实项目。CEO希尔马•佩特松表示：“对于前三年，我们坚持慎重的态度。鉴于当前的市场状态，如果过早进入市场，我们可能会高估前10年的发展，而对之后10年估计不足，这是很常见的。我们无法逆转时光，但快速前进则要容易得多。”

不过，也有分析师持乐观态度：投资银行派杰公司的分析师特拉维斯•贾克尔认为，至2016年底，将有1220万台虚拟现实头盔进入普通家庭。他预计，Rift的销量将达到360万台，Gear VR可达到500万台。Vive预计可销售210万台，而PlayStation VR预计可达到140万台。

每一款虚拟现实系统均有各自的优势，2016年的群雄逐鹿将非常有趣。Oculus背后有实力雄厚的Facebook支持，所以很可能推出带补贴的头戴设备，以促进消费者采购。背靠Valve公司的虚拟现实设备Vive，坐拥全球最大的电脑游戏发行系统Steam的支持。该系统拥有超过1.25亿活跃用户。而PlayStation VR则是唯一一款专为游戏机设计的系统，玩家无需依赖个人电脑的图形和计算机处理能力，即可获得始终如一的体验。

市场调研机构The NPD Group的游戏行业分析师利亚姆•卡拉汉表示：“虚拟现实备受瞩目。很长时间以来，我们一直在接受虚拟现实文化的熏陶，例如《星际迷航》里的全息甲板，或者《X战警》里的危险室。事实上：我们已经摸到了虚拟现实世界的门槛。”（财富中文网）

译者：刘进龙/汪皓

审校：任文科

Since 2012, the Oculus Rift has been the poster child for virtual reality—a status that was upgraded immeasurable last year when Facebook FB 1.72% bought Oculus for $2 billion. Now VR enthusiasts are waiting to learn exactly when they can own one, but the company continues to play coy.

Many expected Oculus founder Palmer Luckey to announce the system’s launch date and price during The Game Awards on Thursday night. Instead, he showcased an upcoming game called Rock Band VR. Oculus, though, has not changed its position that pre-orders for the system will begin before the end of the year, and Palmer reiterated the Q1 2016 launch date at the show.

As the VR world continues to wait for the Rift, it seems the public has become seemingly distracted by the Gear VR, a product resulting from a partnership between Oculus and Samsung SSNLF 4.76% . While no official figures are available for that system, it appears to be selling briskly, with Amazon AMZN 0.87% unable to keep it in stock and Samsung’s own site saying it can no longer guarantee delivery by Dec. 25.

Also warming up on deck for next year is The Vive, a VR headset by HTC and Valve, as well as Sony’s SNE 0.55% PlayStation VR (formerly known as Project Morpheus). Both products lack firm launch dates, but will likely be ready for delivery in the first half of next year.

Virtual reality is certainly a big advancement, both technologically and for the entertainment industry, but analysts warn that despite the anticipated media blitz and proclamations that 2016 is the year of VR (and, perhaps, augmented reality as well, depending on what Microsoft does with Hololens), it’s going to be a slow start.

“To over use the not used often enough baseball analogy, we don’t even think we are in the first inning yet,” says Ben Schachter of Macquarie Capital. “For VR/AR, we have just pulled into the parking lot and tailgating is about to begin. Samsung just arrived with a six-pack of Bud Light, Facebook FB 1.72% called and is bringing a new microbrew, and Sony might bring a more mass-market palatable ale. By the end of 2016, we’ll have a better sense of what’s been brewing at Google GOOG 1.90% , Microsoft MSFT 3.16% , and perhaps Apple AAPL 3.32% might even stop by just to see where this is all going. Only after 2016 will the VR/AR game begin.”

Sony, meanwhile, is expected to show off more of its VR technology this weekend at its PlayStation Experience fan event, which includes first looks at unannounced games that will soon launch. Valve and HTC have largely gone into quite mode after missing their scheduled 2015 commercial launch and HTC’s ongoing financial troubles.

Content is critical for VR, especially in the gaming space. While developer kits have been around for some time, expectations for true breakthrough titles are still fairly low on all fronts, despite the reported $4 billion investors have put into the field.

“It is … inevitable that some of these devices will overpromise and under deliver,” says Schachter. “Yet, once these devices begin to get into consumers hands and developers launch content that moves beyond the ‘wow’ moment and into uniquely, useful experiences, it will be clear that entertainment, communication, and many enterprise functions will change dramatically over the coming decade as VR/AR evolve.”

Even developers who are pouring resources into creating VR games say they expect the technology to be on a slow curve trajectory upwards.

“We’re taking a cautionary view for the first three years,” says Hilmar Pétursson, CEO of CCP Games, which has 40 people in three studios working on VR projects. “When you’re early to a market like this, it’s extremely common to overestimate what happens in the first 10 years and underestimate what happens in the next 10. … It’s hard to wind back the clock, but it’s much easier to fast forward.”

However, some analysts are a bit more optimistic: Piper Jaffray analyst Travis Jakel says that by the end of 2016, there could be 12.2 million VR headsets in homes. He expects Rift sales to come in at 3.6 million and Gear VR to hit 5 million. Vive, meanwhile, is estimated to sell 2.1 million units, while PlayStation VR is slated to sell 1.4 million.

Each VR system has its own advantages that should make the 2016 battle interesting. Oculus has the deep pockets of Facebook behind it, which could result in a subsidized headset, aiding consumer adoption. Vive’s association with Valve gives the headset a link to Steam, the largest PC gaming distribution system with over 125 million active users. Meanwhile, PlayStation VR is the only system designed for consoles, ensuring that players get a consistent experience that’s not reliant on their PC’s graphics and computer processing power.

“It has a lot of buzz,” says Liam Callahan, games industry analyst for The NPD Group. “We’ve been promised VR culturally, whether it’s the holodeck in Star Trek or the Danger Room in X-Men, for a long time. And the fact is: We’re on the doorstep of it.”

译者：刘进龙/汪皓

审校：任文科