躲开这些风险，你今年的投资就安全了

不管怎样，2016年对美国股市来说应当是很不错的一年。

美联储加息释放看好美国经济的信号，总统大选年也通常不会令投资者失望。多数专家都预测当前牛市将有望持续到第七年。在最近一项投票调查中，参投策略师预测2016年底标准普尔500指数可能达到2207点，较目前点位上涨8%左右。

然而，这当中可能有诸多变数。这些看多的策略师也列出了种种可能重创股市的因素——从美国大选可能导致时局不稳，到远期经济可能崩溃等等。

以下就来盘点一下种种担忧。对于那些更愿意保持乐观的人来说，请记住那句老话——“华尔街正爬着忧虑之墙”。（即使市场上充满担心，但股票依然保持升势——译者注）

企业盈利可能停滞不前

在参与路透社投票调查的30位策略师中，大多数最担心的都是企业盈利能力疲弱。标普500企业在2015年盈利为持平，股票价格已经偏高。目前股价是过去一年盈利的19.3倍，高于15倍的平均值。因此企业盈利下降，股价会更为昂贵。

汤森路透分析师预计，2016年企业营收涨幅可能为3.9%，也就是说，如果成本上涨将使盈利连续第二年盈利持平。

新泽西Nuveen Asset Management的首席股市策略师鲍勃•道尔说，“如果劳动力成本开始涨一点，利息支出也上升的话……想保持利润上涨就很难了。”

强势美元可能冲击经济

2015年美元指数兑一揽子货币上涨8.4%，随着美联储宣布加息，其他国家也延续宽松的货币政策，明年美元可能会继续走强。

对那些有很多国际业务的美国企业来说，销售的压力会进一步增大，因为强势美元意味着美国商品的海外价格也随之上涨。

货币风险咨询公司FireApps首席执行官沃夫冈•科斯特尔表示，“如果美元走势和去年相似，美国企业蒙受的损失可能高达280亿美元。”他预测美元走强将使有国际业务的美国企业一季度每股获利折损3至4美分。

边缘候选人或当选

通常在大选年股市表现都不错，股票交易者年鉴的数据显示，无论哪方当选，在1950年之后的16个总统选举年里，标普500指数在其中13年里都出现上涨。

然而随着类似唐纳德•特朗普和伯尼•桑德斯的另类候选人参选，策略师怀疑2016年是否会出现小概率事件。

安联全球投资者美国投资策略师克里斯蒂娜•霍伯说，“候选人越是极端，股市的接受程度就越差”，她认为，贯穿全年的大选活动可能成为市场动荡的因素之一。

美联储或更激进

12月16日美联储启动近十年来首次加息，并强烈暗示未来将缓步加息，美股当日大幅上扬。

然而，如果央行在未见通胀加重或企业营收回升的情况下进一步加息，则有可能打压股市。位于纽约贝德福德山的Solaris集团首席投资官提姆•格里斯科说，“加息的担忧将萦绕不去。”

此外随着利率上升，相较于债券等其他资产类别，股票可能缺乏吸引力。

大宗商品价格或下跌

国际油价的持续下跌已经让能源公司以及为其提供贷款的银行和投资人备受打击，也令一些投资者惶惶不安。

富国银行基金管理公司首席股票策略师约翰•曼力说，“大宗商品价格的持续下跌可能会超出预期，变得难以控制”。

美国原油价格目前为37美元/桶左右，比2014年6月份时已下跌逾65%。如果油价和其他大宗商品价格还不能企稳，那么盈利跌势会扩散至金融公司、供应商等，并导致通缩蔓延的风险。

消费者或抑制支出

虽然目前汽油价格已经低于2美元/桶，但并没有刺激消费者大肆购物，加息可能令他们更倾向于节省开销。

芝加哥蒙特利尔私人银行BMO Private Bank的高级投资策略师杰夫•韦尼格尔表示，目前标普500的市销率已经创下历史新高。若没有销售收入带动，经济拉动利润进而促进股市上涨的结构将出问题。

中国经济硬着陆；其他国家亦表现平平

安联的霍伯说“中国是一只800磅重的大猩猩。”（注：喻中国影响力重大）

8月份中国股市下挫，而美股亦应声暴跌。鉴于中国经济前景仍然疲弱，投资者担心可能会影响大宗商品需求、货币均衡等。此外，中国经济不振也可能波及全球，冲击新兴市场和美国等。

或发生负面大事件

参与投票的策略师当中至少有九位都把恐怖主义或中东局势动荡列为2016年影响股市的最大风险之一。

联合投资公司首席股票投资官史蒂夫•奥特说“明显的风险是发生某种地缘政治事件，导致旅行和贸易禁令。这种情况是有可能发生的。”而且，一旦发生恐怖主义性质的公共事件，消费者可能无法外出。

尽管油价的自由落体式下跌对股市不利，反之亦然。中东若发生系统性危机则很容易造成油价飙升，但消费者和企业的成本也会提高。

觉得这些还不够打击信心？富国的曼力说，他担心“世界经济已失去了发展的勃勃生气”。

他说，“我最担心的是，六年前我们并没有真正解决问题，只是将其推迟了。我们这艘船之所以沉没并不是因为海水突然涌入，而是细小裂隙日积月累地漏水。我没说一定会发生，但真的很担心一语成谶。”（财富中文网）

译者：Pessy

校对：夏林

By all rights, 2016 should be a good year for the U.S. stock market.

The Federal Reserve’s recent rate hike signals confidence in the economy and presidential election years typically reward investors. Most experts are predicting a seventh year for the current bull market, with strategists in a recent poll expecting the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index to end 2016 at about 2,207, roughly 8 percent higher than it is now.

But a lot could go wrong. The same strategists have cataloged a long list of worries – everything from a destabilizing U.S. election to a meltdown far away – that could hit stocks hard.

Here is their laundry list of concerns. For those who’d rather stay optimistic, remember the old chestnut: Wall Street climbs a wall of worry.

COMPANIES MIGHT STOP EARNING PROFITS

Most of the 30 strategists polled by Reuters cited weak earnings as their prominent concern. With S&P earnings growth projected to be flat in 2015, stocks already are pricey. The market is trading at roughly 19.3 times trailing earnings, well above its 15 average. Any stumble in earnings would make stocks even pricier.

Thomson Reuters analysts now expect revenue to grow 3.9 percent in 2016, meaning any increases in costs could keep earnings flat for a second year in a row.

“If labor costs start moving up a bit and interest expense is moving up … it’s going to be hard to keep margins up,” said Bob Doll, chief equity strategist at Nuveen Asset Management in Princeton, New Jersey.

STRONG DOLLAR COULD KEEP INFLICTING PAIN

The dollar, up 8.4 percent against a basket of currencies in 2015, is expected to see further gains next year as the United States hikes rates while other countries continue easy money policies.

That could further pressure sales of U.S. companies with heavy international exposure because it makes U.S. goods more expensive overseas.

“If we have a similar movement to last year, then we’re going to have roughly a $28-billion hit to corporate America,” said Wolfgang Koester, chief executive of currency risk consulting firm FireApps. He said he expects the dollar to shave 3 to 4 cents from first-quarter earnings of U.S. companies with foreign exposure.

THE PUBLIC COULD ELECT A FRINGE CANDIDATE

Stocks historically do well in a presidential election year, with the S&P gaining in 13 of the 16 presidential election years since 1950, regardless of which party won, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

But strategists wonder if 2016 might be one of the exceptions to the trend, with outliers like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders running this year.

“The more extreme the candidate, the less well-received the candidate typically is by the stock market,” said Kristina Hooper, U.S. investment strategist at Allianz Global Investors. She said she expected election activity throughout the year to contribute to market volatility.

THE FED COULD GET AGGRESSIVE

The stock market rallied on Dec. 16 when the U.S. Federal Reserve announced its first rate hike along with strong hints that it would move slowly on future increases.

But if the central bank continues to raise rates without seeing higher inflation or an earnings pick-up, that could dent stocks. “Rate hikes should be a consistent worry,” said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment officer of Solaris Group in Bedford Hills, New York.

As rates rise, stocks could become less attractive compared with other asset classes like bonds.

COMMODITIES COULD FALL

The continuing decline in oil prices, which has hurt energy companies and the banks and investors that lend to them, has some investors spooked.

“The commodity picture could get out of control to the downside,” said John Manley, chief equity strategist at Wells Fargo Funds Management.

U.S. crude is now about $37 a barrel, down more than 65 percent since June 2014. Should the prices of oil and other commodities fail to firm, the risk is of spreading deflation, as declining earnings in those sectors spread to financial firms, suppliers and more, said Manley.

THE CONSUMER COULD BAIL

Even with gasoline under $2 a gallon, consumers have resisted spending sprees and higher interest rates may entice them to tilt even more towards saving.

The price-to-sales ratio of the S&P has already topped previous peaks, says Jeff Weniger, senior portfolio strategist at BMO Private Bank in Chicago. Without sales, the whole growing economy-growing-earnings-improving-stock-prices structure could go south.

CHINA LANDS HARD; OTHER COUNTRIES DON’T DO MUCH BETTER

“China is the 800-pound gorilla,” said Allianz’s Hooper.

In August, Chinese stocks fell and the U.S. market swooned in response. With the outlook for the world’s second-largest economy still weak, investors worry that it could hurt demand for commodities, currency balances and more. Furthermore, weakness in China could ripple across the globe, hitting emerging markets and the United States as well.

SOMETHING BIG AND TERRIBLE COULD HAPPEN

At least nine of the strategists polled listed terrorism or Middle East instability among their biggest concerns for the stock market in 2016.

“The obvious risk is some sort of geopolitical event that freezes up travel and trade. It could happen,” said Steve Auth, chief investment officer for equities at Federated Investors. Consumers, too, could be kept at home by any public events perceived as terrorist in nature.

While free-falling oil has proven bad for stocks, the reverse would not necessarily help. A systemic crisis in the Middle East could easily spike oil prices, raising costs for consumers and businesses.

Not dark enough? Manley of Wells Fargo says he worries about “the risk that the vital spirit has gone out of the world’s economy.”

He said, “The deepest darkest fear I have is that we didn’t really fix it six years ago, we just delayed it for a while. And rather than being sunk by a gash we are being sunk by a slow leak. It’s not what I think, but it is what I worry about.”