重塑全球经济格局的五大趋势

尽管如此，细心的观察家们仍可以提前发现很多能够影响世界格局的经济趋势。例如，不少专家曾认为美联储今年没有能力去加息，然而，只要仔细研究一下数据，预测美联储12月的加息举措也并非难事。2016年，新的经济趋势将涌现或迅速发展，对我们的世界形成或好或坏的影响。以下是2016年的五大经济趋势。

Every year brings its share of economic events that take us by surprise. Few people predicted the collapse in oil prices that started in the summer of 2014, or were able to time the sharp decline in economic growth in China that started a few months ago.

That said, many of the economic trends that shape our world can be spotted ahead of time by careful observers. For instance, many pundits argued that the Federal Reserve wouldn’t be able to raise rates this year, but a close examination of the data would have enabled you to predict the Fed’s December liftoff. In 2016, new economic trends will emerge or gain steam, and shape the world we live in for the better or worse. Here are the top five:

美国仍将是全球经济引擎

随便找一个普通的美国人，如果你告诉他美国经济是主要国家中增长最快的，他会很惊讶。然而，虽然美国经济增长慢，其他发达国家的经济增速比美国还慢，中国经济增速又出现大幅下滑，事实就是如此。

中国政府表示，中国的GDP增速已在2015年降至6.9%，明年预计将达到6.8%，而在过去10年中，其年均增速一直保持在10%以上。听起来比美国2.5%-3%的预期增长高得多。然而，很多经济学家对中国官方数据的准确性持怀疑态度，他们估计中国明年的增速更接近3%-4%。

更为重要的是，到目前为止，美国是全球最大的贸易赤字国，这意味着其他经济大国，例如德国、日本和中国，都要靠美国的需求来推动经济增长。尽管中国领导人意识到中国经济必须从投资和出口型向消费型转变，但预计全球经济在2016年仍将继续依赖美国消费者。

The Global Economy Will Continue to Be Powered by America

If you ask the average American, he would be surprised to find out that the U.S. economy's performance is best in class. But with the rest of the wealthy world growing even more slowly than America, and with the collapse in economic growth in China, that's exactly what it's become.

The Chinese government says that GDP growth there has slowed to 6.9% in 2015, and that it will grow by 6.8% next year after averaging more than 10% for the past decade. That sounds much faster than the 2.5% to 3% growth expected here at home, but many economists doubt the accuracy of Chinese government numbers, estimating that growth will be closer to 3% to 4% in the years to come.

But more important, the United States has by far the largest trade deficit in the world, which means that the other big economies like Germany, Japan, and China are dependent on U.S. demand for their economies to grow. While Chinese leaders recognize that it's imperative for their economy to shift from an investment and export model to one built around consumer spending, expect global economy to continue to lean on the U.S. consumer in 2016.

中国将持续温和增长

多年来，中国的经济增速一直是美国的三倍，令全世界为之侧目。中国经济增长靠的是政府主导的投资以及对发达国家的大规模出口。中国经济安然度过了上一场全球金融危机，没有出现重大的衰退，当然也是靠着大规模的政府刺激政策，这些政策也进一步推动了中国的投资拉动型增长。

然而，这些投资的很大一部分都源于不断增长的债务而不是利润，其中既有政府债务，也有企业债务。随着消费支出推动经济增长的压力增大，中国必须下大力气将财富从有权有势的政府官员和国企管理者手中转移到普通家庭里。然而，在政治上很有困难，也不会迅速实现。预计中国将在2016年和此后的一段时间内将继续行走于坎坷的转型之路上。

China Will Stay Stuck in Second Gear

For years, the world has watched as China posted economic growth rates three times as fast as the United States, built on the back of government-directed capital investment and massive exports to the wealthy world. The Chinese economy blew past the global financial crisis without so much as flinching, again with the help of massive government stimulus that enabled further investment-led growth.

But much of this investment was enabled by growing debt, both government and corporate, rather than profits. China must do the hard work of shifting wealth from powerful government officials and managers of state-owned enterprises to Chinese households, with consumer spending carrying more of the economic burden. This will, however, be politically difficult and won't happen overnight. Expect this bumpy transition to continue in 2016 and beyond.

大宗商品的价格将下跌

中国经济增速的大幅下滑让大宗商品经历了2008年以来最差的一年。2015年，彭博大宗商品指数下跌了26%。由于中国是大宗商品这一全球经济基础的主要需求国，分析师们预计2016年大宗商品的价格难有起色。

Commodities Will Be Cheap

The collapse in Chinese growth helped commodities class have its worst year since 2008, with the Bloomberg commodities index falling 26% in 2015. As China was the main source of demand for the basic building blocks of the global economy, analysts expect commodities to remain soft in 2016.

欧洲将逼近危机边缘

或许在很多美国人眼中，欧洲债务危机已经成为了过去时，然而，这一问题仍在继续发酵。欧元区的失业率仍维持在10.7%的高位，而欧盟第五大经济体西班牙的失业率已经超过21%。虽然欧洲经济目前正在缓慢增长，失业率也在慢慢下降，但导致危机的欧盟各国经济失衡问题依然存在。

欧盟各国生产力水平相差很大，比如希腊和德国之间，一方面德国的出口享受了不公平的优势，另一方面生产力较低的国家失业率上升至危险水平。在解决根源问题之前，预计欧洲也只能应付度日，政府债务水平也将有增无减。

Europe will edge closer to crisis

While many Americans may think of the European debt crisis as something that occurred in the past, it's actually still ongoing. The unemployment rate for the euro area remains at 10.7%, with unemployment in Spain, the union's fifth-largest economy, over 21%. Though Europe is slowly growing and its unemployment rate slowly falling, the imbalances that created the crisis still remain.

The Euro binds together countries like Greece and Germany with vastly different productivity levels, giving Germany unfair advantages in export markets while keeping unemployment in less productive countries dangerously high. Until Europe deals with the fundamental cause of its troubles, expect the continent to muddle along, while government debt levels steadily rise.

印度将成为经济增长新星

国际货币基金组织预计，2016年印度经济增速将达到7.3%，比中国官方的注水数据还高。2016年将是一个转折点，年轻得多、技术水平欠发达的印度将超越其东部邻邦中国，成为增速最快的经济大国。

虽然印度经济不免与其他新兴经济体一样面临各种阻力，但人口优势还是很明显的。未来10年中，尽管中国在总人口数上仍将稳居世界第一，但印度的劳动力人数将超过中国。目前印度总理纳伦德拉•莫迪正忙于为这个世界上最大的民主国家制定更为宜商的政策，各种迹象表明，明年将是印度崛起的一年。（财富中文网）

译者：冯丰

校对：夏林

India will become the new growth king

The IMF expects the Indian economy to grow at 7.3% clip next year, faster than even the Chinese government's trumped-up numbers. 2016 will be a turning point, in which a much younger and less technologically advanced India surpasses its neighbor to the east to become the fastest growing large economy.

Though the Indian economy hasn't been spared from the headwinds that have slowed other emerging market economies, it does have demographics on its side. Over the next ten years, the Indian workforce will grow to be larger than the Chinese, even as China's overall population remains the world's biggest. Narendra Modi has his hands full guiding the world's largest democracy towards more business-friendly policies, but the signs point to an emergent India in the new year.