为什么说谷歌汽车是场恶作剧

在2016年CES展会之前，福特汽车首席执行官马克·菲尔兹仍对福特与谷歌联手打造福特自动驾驶汽车的消息遮遮掩掩。

菲尔兹在纽约一家酒店逗留时说：“我们跟很多公司都在谈。”随后他便立即奔赴泰特波罗机场，乘飞机前往拉斯维加斯。不过，鉴于分析师都信誓旦旦地说福特马上就会跟谷歌达成协议，我们应该回忆一下某家“无良”科技媒体的最新恶作剧。据该媒体报道，很快我们就可以乘坐谷歌汽车四处瞎逛了，后者最出名之处就是它的威宝娃娃风格和气泡一般的外形。

谷歌的自动驾驶技术货真价实，但这款车应该不会问世。谷歌表示无意自行制造和销售汽车。就像苹果公司的iCar一样，只有容易上当的狂热粉丝才会对此翘首以待。谷歌甚至不需要像特斯拉那样做出大家耳熟能详的行业变革承诺。该公司需要做的只是让它的“小碰碰车”在加利福尼亚转一转，剩下的事交给它的技术粉们就行了。

我逐渐意识到，许多“见利忘义”的科技媒体，比如《连线》和《快公司》杂志，不仅不在乎能否把事情做对，也不在乎自己是否犯了错。在互联网上，记忆和关注的持续时间都以毫秒计算，这就意味着你永远也不用道歉。如果需要更多证据的话，这次的谷歌恶作剧就表明，永远也不能相信那些报导硅谷消息的不靠谱预言家能把汽车方面的事说明白了。只有一句旁白最合适，也只有一条原则可以引起关注并奉承他们那些自私自利的消费者，那就是硅谷就是上帝和救世主。底特律以及地球上所有因循守旧的地方都是魔鬼，而且比真正的魔鬼要笨得多。

山景城那些赚了大钱的公司会用数百亿美元资金把自己变为利润率低下的汽车制造商，这种想法从一开始就很可疑。他们已经找到了后门的捷径，为什么还要这样做呢？谷歌现在的注意力集中在把自己的自动驾驶技术授权给多个合作伙伴方面，这就对了。它需要的只是一块出色的芯片和无线网络，这样就能在大家的车里做起生意来。在自动化这盘棋里，如果能成为“无形的手”来摆弄棋子，谷歌就绝对不需要通过造车来获得众多棋子。

对于态度谨慎的主流买家来说，他们不太可能放弃自己的福特、奥迪或者丰田，转而相信一家从未制造过汽车，也未提供过相关服务的初创公司散发的传单，就算它是在产品上使用特氟龙涂层的苹果公司。谷歌比其他任何公司都更清楚品牌忠诚度以及人们最深层的欲望，它当然意识到了这一点。所以说，谷歌汽车是不是不切实际的泡沫，他们的原创是否借鉴了雷克萨斯SUV或Radio Flyer的红色小推车根本不重要，这是因为架在四个轮子上的那个东西永远都只是承载着软件的特洛伊木马。真正实现了突破而且完全自动驾驶的汽车也许是另外一回事。另外，从斯坦福大学的神经科学研究中心到奥迪或日产的工程师们，自动化领域的一些重要人物都曾指出，谷歌在软件和硬件方面的领先优势被人们夸大了，或者维持不了多久。

感谢这个让爱德华·斯诺登流亡国外的元数据奇妙世界，谷歌（Facebook、电信公司和美国国家安全局）一直都很清楚大家在网上干了什么，此外，他们还知道大家去过哪里，跟谁说过话，以及大家的生活怎样。对他们来说，人们在车里的这段时间是需要填补的一段关键空白。开发或主导自动驾驶汽车以及车内资讯娱乐的控制网络是个生死攸关的机会。这还涉及随时向人们推销商品的能力，不管是App还是内容，或者是J. Crew毛衣。汽车完全实现自动驾驶以后，人类就得到了解放，可以通过车上越来越大的显示屏来搜索和观看付费内容。或者在经过洲际公路旁的Chick-fil-A时，看着这家鸡肉快餐连锁店的打折信息神奇地出现在汽车的显示屏上。

但不要搞错了，设计、制造和推广自动驾驶联网汽车的将是日产、奥迪、福特、梅赛德斯-奔驰以及其他老牌汽车厂商。对于选择跟谷歌联手的公司来说，谷歌的贡献将主要限于在这背后飞速运转的软件代码，或者出现在人车界面上的那些东西。如果汽车厂商想出了办法来阻止科技公司进入这条新的利润链，以免后者分享胜利果实，请不要感到意外。菲尔兹表示，为满足顾客轻松连接智能手机的要求，2017年出厂并且安装了福特Sync联网系统的福特和林肯轿车都将预装Apple CarPlay和Android Auto软件。同时，福特也在推广自己的开源手机App SmartDeviceLink。具有讽刺意味的是，该软件的目标就是屏蔽谷歌和苹果的服务。丰田和QNX Software等大公司均已加入了竞争者行列。

菲尔兹说，只要合理，福特就会跟别人合作；如果合作不合乎情理，福特就会单独行动。福特的目标是开发四级自动化的主流轿车，而不仅仅是昂贵的豪华车型，这种自动化水平意味着驾驶者可以完全放手不管，让汽车自行处理几乎所有的情况。

福特将把进行自动驾驶测试的Fusion轿车的数量提高两倍，达到30辆。该公司正在密歇根大学的MCity模拟场地测试这款产品，而且已经获得了加州政府的公路测试许可。福特采用了Velodyne的Lidar激光雷达系统，该公司曾在2005年DARPPA机器人挑战赛上使用过这种产品。该系统发出的不可见光脉冲频率接近每秒百万次，生成的周边环境3D图像有着难以置信的清晰度。菲尔兹说，最新Lidar硬件的尺寸大幅缩小，“真的就跟冰球一样大”，这让它很容易安装在汽车上。

虽然尚未成为事实，但有迹象表明福特和谷歌会进行合作。菲尔兹的前任艾伦·穆拉利现在是谷歌的董事。谷歌自动驾驶项目负责人约翰·克拉夫切克则曾是福特的工程师。

和我们中的大多数人一样，菲尔兹也无法预测五年或15年后的自动化行业会是什么模样，或者哪家公司将率先在市场上推出真正的自动驾驶汽车。但上文提到的这家科技媒体坚持说它知道，这种反复出现的行径着实“无耻”，就像它在下一期刊物中阿谀奉承某位CEO的封面文章一样。人们却一直买它的账。要我说的话，如果再看到有人在硅谷四处散播闪亮泡沫一样的无稽之谈，大家就应该提醒他，在这里泡沫会带来什么样的结果。(财富中文网)

译者：Charlie

On the eve of its press conference at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, Ford chief executive Mark Fields was still coy on the automaker’s reported deal to partner with Google to build self-driving, Ford-branded cars.

“We’re talking with everyone,” Fields said during a sit-down in a New York hotel, just before he zipped to Teterboro Airport for a flight to Vegas. But with analysts assuring us that a Ford-Google deal is imminent, it’s worth recalling the latest hoax perpetrated by a conscienceless tech media: that before long, we’d all be dorking around town in the Google Car, the famously Weebles-styled, self-driving bubble.

The tech giant’s self-driving technology is real, but the car itself is vaporware. Google GOOG 0.14% says it has no intention of creating and selling its own car. As for an iCar from Apple AAPL -1.96% , only a gullible fanboy should wait in line. Yet Google didn’t even need to trot out familiar, Tesla-esque promises TSLA -1.54% to revolutionize the industry. All it had to do was putt around California in its little bumper car, and its tech toadies did the work for them.

I’ve come to believe that many in the cynical tech media—your Wired, your Fast Company—not only don’t care to get it right, they don’t care if they’re wrong. With memories and attention spans measured in milliseconds, the Internet means never having to say you’re sorry. If more proof were needed, the Great Google Hoax shows that the extravagant soothsayers who cover Silicon Valley can never be trusted to get the automotive story straight. There’s only one narrative that fits, one gospel with which to snare eyeballs and flatter their self-regarding consumers: Silicon Valley is Lord and Savior. Detroit and other hidebound corners of the earth are the Devil, only much dumber.

The idea that the profit minters of Mountain View would spend tens of billions of dollars to become low-margin automakers was dubious to begin with. Why should they, when they’ve finally found easy entry through the back door? Google is now rightly focused on licensing its self-driving technology to multiple partners. All it needs is a genius microchip and a wireless connection to open up shop in your car. Google never needed to build cars like millions of game pieces, if it can be the invisible hand that shuffles them around the automated game board.

As for cautious mainstream buyers, they’re not likely to trade in their Ford F -4.45% , or Audi AUDVF -1.61% or Toyota TM -2.28% , to take a flyer on a startup—even a Teflon-coated Apple—that has never produced or serviced a single car. Google, the company that knows more than any other about our brand loyalties and deepest desires, surely recognizes this. So it never mattered whether the Google Car was a utopian bubble, their original retrofitted Lexus SUV or a red Radio Flyer wagon: The thingy on wheels was always a Trojan Horse for the software inside. A truly breakthrough, fully self-driving car might be a different story. But some leading lights in autonomy, from the nerve center ofStanford to engineers at Audi or Nissan NSANY -3.24% , argue that any Google edge in software and hardware is exaggerated or short-lived.

Thanks to the wonderful world of metadata that got Edward Snowden exiled, Google (and Facebook and phone companies and the NSA) already has a great idea of not only what you do online, but where you go, who you talk to and how you live. For them, the time you spend in your car is a critical node to fill in the remaining blanks. It’s a kill-or-be-killed opportunity to develop or dominate the networks that control automated cars and in-car infotainment. That includes the ability to sell you more stuff 24/7, from apps to content to a J. Crew sweater. Make the car fully automated, and the human race is freed to stare, well, Google-eyed, at paid content on the car’s ever-larger screen displays. Or to see a Chick-fil-A discount magically appear as you cruise past its interstate exit.

But make no mistake: Nissan, Audi, Ford, Mercedes-Benz DDAIF -3.32% and other legacy automakers will design, build, market and service the self-driving and connected car. Google’s contribution—for those who choose to align with the company—will largely be limited to the software code whirring behind the scenes, or the stuff streaming through an interface. Don’t be surprised if automakers find ways to block tech companies from sharing the spoils in their newly profitable cabins. Bowing to customers’ demands for convenient smartphone links, Fields says that Ford will offer Apple CarPlay and Android Auto in every 2017 Ford and Lincoln equipped with its Sync connectivity system. Yet Ford is also pushing its open source SmartDeviceLink software for phone apps—ironically to cock-block Google and Apple’s services. Big players like Toyota and QNX Software have already joined up.

Fields says that Ford will partner up where it makes sense and go it alone where it doesn’t. Ford intends to develop mainstream cars, not just pricey luxury models, that achieve Level 4 autonomy, meaning the ability for drivers to sit back, check out and let the car handle virtually any situation.

Ford is tripling its autonomous Fusion test fleet to 30 cars, is testing at University of Michigan’s MCity simulated environment, and got a license to test on public roads in California. It’s working with Velodyne’s Lidar system, which Ford has experience with dating back to the autonomous DARPA challenge of 2005. Such Lidar systems pump out invisible illumination, nearly a million pulses per second, to create incredibly detailed 3D images of their surroundings. The latest, dramatically scaled-down Lidar hardware, Fields said, “is literally the size of a hockey puck,” making it easy to integrate into a production car.

While a Ford-Google deal is not yet fait accompli, there are signs in its favor. Alan Mulally, Fields’ retired predecessor, now sits on Google’s board of directors. John Krafcik, who heads up Google’s self-driving project, is a former Ford engineer.

Like most of us, Fields can’t predict what the automotive industry will look like in five or 15 years, or who will bring the first true robocar to market. But the tech media keeps insisting it knows, as shamelessly and recurringly as the next fawning CEO cover story. And people keep buying it. Tell you what: The next time someone inflates a shiny bubble of B.S. around the Valley, remind him what bubbles tend to do in that corner of the world.