日本不再衰退——亚洲经济提振有望

初步数据称日本出现了五年来的第四次经济衰退，但最近公布的调整后数字完全打消了这种担心。其实不用看调整后的数字也能知道，日本经济不太可能出现滑坡了，因为就业率很高，酒店生意红火，商场超市的消费都很旺盛。

初步数据显示，2015年第二季度出现滑坡后，日本经济在第三季度再次下降0.8%，而通常来说衰退的定义就是连续两个季度出现负增长。不过，最终数据表明，三季度日本经济不仅并未下降，反而增长了1%。

虽然中国经济放缓影响了日本的出口，工资增长也缓慢，但作为全球第三大经济体，日本并没有一蹶不振。

首先，就业市场相当景气，失业率只有3.1%，处于20年来的低点。

酒店入住率也很高。丰田总部所在地、日本中部城市名古屋近期的酒店平均入住率为90%。

名古屋商工会议所副会长内藤弘康说：“每当有大型会议召开，酒店就会预订一空。近来不少高层建筑纷纷投入建设，其中都有酒店建设规划。”

“建筑工人、保安和卡车司机都不够用。一些相关行业的工资正在上升。”

从目前情况来看，兼职人员在就业和薪酬两方面均受益最多。2013年4月日本央行推出大规模经济刺激措施以来，兼职人员的工资已经上升了3.8%。

这带动了居民收入稳步增长，进而促进了消费。

10月份，由于消费者对首饰和奢侈品的需求旺盛，日本百货店销售额连续第四个月上升。伊势丹三越控股等百货商场因此上调了截至2016年3月份的财年业绩预期。

截至10月，本财年日本整体零售额同比上升1.8%，超市销售额连续第七个月实现增长。

在东京商业区，一位衣着入时、正在等朋友吃饭的女士说：“我觉得经济正在变好。经济好的时候我往往会更敢花钱。”

而且，感受到经济好转的不仅是大城市。在日本西部城市广岛，中型超市泉屋百货就没感受到经济衰退的寒意。

该公司发言人后藤郁夫说：“高档产品很畅销，比如我们货架上摆的顶级‘和牛肉’。”

资本支出同样显示出活力。日本政府的调查显示，2015年第三季度投资增速达到了八年多以来的最高点。

实际上，三季度调整后经济数据之所以“变脸”，从初步估算的下降1.3%变为上升0.6%，很大程度上都是因为资本支出。

尽管担心中国需求可能疲软，但在路透社的采访中，80%的公司都表示下半财年的开支计划不会变。

一些分析师指出，日本的经济周期变短了，原因是公司随着需求的波动调整库存的速度变快了，也就是说，经济趋向更频繁出现滑坡，但下跌幅度相当小，持续时间也很短。

第一生命研究所首席经济学家熊野英生因此认为，政府应该把眼光放得更长远一些，而不是疲于应付短期波动。

他说：“政府真正应该做的是采取措施来提高日本的增长潜力。”

不过，日本劳动力人口不断下降的长期结构性问题还是没法迅速解决。

一些日本公司已经开始未雨绸缪，不再把所有的鸡蛋都放在日本本土这个篮子里，其中就包括制造日本传统毛笔和刷子的白凤堂。

白凤堂社长高本和男表示，目前其产品在日本非常热销，但今年5月份开工新工厂时，公司已经展望得更远。

他说：“新工厂主要是为了提升产量以满足国外的需求……来自亚洲其他地区以及中东的需求都有望增长。”（财富中文网）

译者：Charlie

审校：夏林

Even before Tuesday’s revised figures banished what preliminary data said was Japan’s fourth recession in five years, it was an unlikely downturn, complete with high employment, heaving hotels and tinkling cash tills.

After the economy shrank in the second quarter, preliminary figures for a 0.8% contraction in the third quarter fitted the definition of a recession—two consecutive quarters of negative growth—but final figures for the July-September period put the economy back on the front foot with growth of 1%.

Though exports have taken a hit from China’s slowdown, and wage growth is lackluster, the world’s third-largest economy hadn’t been behaving like it was on the ropes.

The labor market is near full employment, with just 3.1% out of work, the lowest level in two decades.

Hotel occupancy rates are also high. They recently averaged 90% in Nagoya, the central Japanese city that carmaker Toyota calls home.

“When there’s a big conference, hotel rooms become fully booked. We’re seeing a construction rush of high-rise buildings with plans to build some new hotels,” said Hiroyasu Naito, deputy chairman of Nagoya’s chamber of commerce.

“There’s a shortage of construction workers, security guards and truck drivers. In some sectors, we’re seeing wages rise.”

For now at least, it is part-time workers who are seeing most of the benefit, both in hiring and pay. Part-time pay has jumped 3.8% since the Bank of Japan adopted a massive stimulus program in April 2013.

That is leading to a steady gain in household income, which is working its way into spending.

Department store sales rose for the fourth straight month in October on brisk demand for jewelry and luxury goods, helping operators like Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings revise up its earnings forecasts for the year to March 2016.

Overall retail sales rose 1.8% in the year to October, with supermarket sales up for the seventh straight month.

“I think the economy is getting better,” said a smartly dressed woman waiting for a dinner partner in Tokyo’s business district. “When the economy gets better, I tend to spend more.”

And it’s not just a big-city phenomenon.Izumi, a midsize supermarket operator in Hiroshima, western Japan, is also not feeling the pinch of recession.

“High-end products are selling well, such as the most premium ‘wagyu’ beef sold on our shelves,” said spokesman Ikuo Goto.

Capital expenditure is showing signs of life, too, with a government survey finding investment rose at the fastest pace in more than eight years in the third quarter.

Indeed, capital expenditure accounted for much of the swing in the revised third-quarter figures, flipping from a 1.3% preliminary drop to a 0.6% rise.

Despite concerns over soft Chinese demand, 80% of firms polled by Reuters said they were sticking to their spending plans for the second half of the fiscal year.

Some analysts say Japan’s economic cycle has become shorter as companies adjust inventory more quickly to fluctuations in demand, which means the economy tends to contract more frequently but the downturns are fairly shallow and short-lived.

So instead of responding to these short-term fluctuations, the government ought to take a longer view, says Hideo Kumano, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.

“What the government really needs to do is to implement steps to strengthen Japan’s potential growth,” he said.

But there is no quick fix for the long-term structural problem of Japan’s dwindling working-age population.

So when companies like Hakuhodo, which produces brushes for traditional Japanese calligraphy and for make-up, think ahead, they aren’t putting all their eggs in the Japanese basket.

For now, Hakuhodo’s general manager Ko Takamoto says domestic sales are very strong, but the company has wider horizons for the plant it opened in May.

“Our new plant is aimed at boosting production to meet overseas demand…We see growth prospects in Asia and the Middle East,” he said.