全球15位顶尖风投家解读“独角兽”泡沫
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估值10亿美元以上的“独角兽”公司如雨后春笋般四处涌现。那么，我们是否已身处科技泡沫之中？《财富》汇总了多位知名风投家的观点，其中大多数人认为，科技泡沫并不存在——至少目前是这样。 创业公司的估值过高了吗？真的有这么多价值10亿美元的“独角兽”公司吗？我们是否已身处科技泡沫之中？ 这是一个标准的采访话题，尤其是对科技大会的风险投资家而言。答案仍是众说纷纭，其中，大部分人都否认存在泡沫，但他们也预测有部分创业公司将遭遇冲击。那么，究竟是哪些将退出“独角兽”榜单呢？ |
Are startups overvalued? Are there too many billion-dollar “unicorns”? Are we in a tech bubble? It’s standard interview fare, especially for venture capitalists at tech conferences. To understand why, read our breakdown of the reasons journalists can’t stop asking about the tech bubble. And if you’re in need of a gift for the doomsaying venture capitalist in your life, consider “Unicorn Tears.” Opinions vary on whether this is a bubble. Most say it’s not, while issuing dire warnings that a shake-out is coming for certain startups. Just don’t ask them to name which ones are on their dying unicorn lists. |
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Bill Gurley 比尔•格利 格利是第一批敲响资金消耗率警钟的著名投资者之一。早在一年多前，他就表示创业公司冒的风险太大了。 他在专栏文章中重申了这一观点： “独角兽公司从大规模融资中获得巨额资金后，为了让融资行为显得正当合理，它们开始大肆烧钱，从而给它们的长期发展埋下隐患。面对这些潜在的独角兽公司，后期投资者将传统的风险评估抛置一旁，生怕错失购买股权的机会。而传统的早期投资者、公共机构投资者和手头有大量余钱的富人也涌入了高风险的后期游戏。” 在2015年春天的西南偏南大会上，他曾断言一些独角兽公司“即将夭折”。 随后在8月份，他发表推文称，市场波动可能会对科技股带来成倍的影响，这会让后期创业公司的流动性受损。他写道：“如果真是如此，成长能力大于盈利能力的估值观念可能就接近终结了。这或许会是个转折点。投资者可能会重新关注商业模式的生存能力和盈利能力。对许多人来说，这似乎会是个突然的转变。” 最近，他还点名了一些估值很高的快递创业公司，表示它们和互联网泡沫期间失败的那些快递创业公司“一样烂”。 |
Bill Gurley Gurley was among the first of the prominent investors to sound the alarm on burn rates. A year ago, he said startups are taking on too much risk. In a February op-ed, he re-iterated that point: "Companies are taking on huge burn rates to justify spending the capital they are raising in these enormous financings, putting their long-term viability in jeopardy. Late-stage investors, desperately afraid of missing out on acquiring shareholding positions in possible “unicorn” companies, have essentially abandoned their traditional risk analysis. Traditional early-stage investors, institutional public investors, and anyone with extra millions are rushing in to the high-stakes, late stage game." In the Spring, he predicted “dead unicorns” at South by Southwest. In August, he tweeted that the market volatility might result in compressed multiples for for tech stocks, which would hurt liquidity options for late stage startups. “If so, we may be nearing the end of a cycle where growth is valued more than profitability. It could be at an inflection point,” he wrote. “Investors are likely to refocus on business model viability and path to profitability. This will seem like an abrupt sea change to many.” Most recently, he called out some highly valued delivery startups, saying, “it’s the same shit” as the failed delivery startups of the dotcom bubble. |
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Marc Andreessen 马克•安德森 安德森不认为我们身处泡沫之中，并强烈捍卫这一观点。在2015年6月面向基金投资者的一次演示中，他表示由于市场发生了巨大变化，这一次的情况与往日不同。 不过，他对创业公司也提出了几条强烈的警告。他曾发表推文称：“担忧。”一旦市场出现变化，那些烧钱太快的创业公司就会“蒸发”。 |
Marc Andreessen Andreessen doesn’t believe we’re in a bubble and will passionately argue that point. In a June presentation to investors in his fund, he argued that this time is different, thanks to big differences in the market. Still, he’s issued several strong warnings to startups. “Worry,” he tweeted last year. Startups with high burn rates will “VAPORIZE,” when a market turns. |
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Vinod Khosla 维诺德•科斯拉 科斯拉在TechCrunch Disrupt大会上表示，如果这确实是场泡沫，企业家应该准备好大量资金充当驱动力，确保当他们需要“踩急刹车”的时候，烧钱的速度能够维持下去。 |
Vinod Khosla At TechCrunch disrupt last week, Khosla said that if this is a bubble, entrepreneurs should have plenty of money fueling their tanks and make sure their burn rates are sustainable in the case of they have to “hit the brakes hard.” |
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Josh Kopelman 约什•科普曼 作为风投公司The First Round Capital的合伙人，科普曼认为这段时期还不算泡沫。不过他的公司已经减缓了投资步伐。 他在一封写给基金投资者的信中指出，一些针对估值过高公司的投资将会贬值或失败：“尽管我们已经尽了最大努力，但我们投资的部分公司预计将随着时间的推移而陷入低迷（还有许多可能会完全消失）。” |
Josh Kopelman The First Round Capital partner stopped short of calling this period a bubble. But his firm slowed its pace of investment this year. In a letter to his fund’s investors, he noted that some over-valued investments would end up being worth less or fail: “Despite our best efforts, we expect that several of our portfolio companies will end up being marked down over time (with many potentially being written off entirely).” |
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Aileen Lee 艾琳•李 最近分析估值十亿美元以上的创业公司时，这位Cowboy Ventures风投公司的合伙人表示，她对创业市场“极好的基础面”持乐观态度，尽管许多估值很高的创业公司的“资本效率低得惊人”。 她警告称，如果局势恶化，损失最大的将是创业公司的员工。投资者的优先认股权和创始人的早期流动资产都能让他们在面对危机时得到一定的保护。 |
Aileen Lee The Cowboy Ventures partner is positive about the “fantastic fundamentals” of the venture market, even though valuable startups have “surprisingly low capital efficiency,” she noted in a recent analysis of billion-dollar startup unicorns. She warned that startup employees have the most to lose if things go badly. Preferred stock options for investors and early liquidity for founders shields them from risk. |
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ChamathPalihapitiya 查马斯•帕里哈皮蒂亚 这位Social + Capital的合伙人最近发出警告称，对旧金山创业公司的投资已经失控，这些资金让那些不怎么样的创业公司存活了太长时间。 “资本市场里的大部分钱最终会追逐少数真正优秀的公司。问题在于这里有一堆骗子公司融资了太长时间，以前不是这样的。” |
Chamath Palihapitiya The Social + Capital partner recently warned that spending in San Francisco startups has gotten out of control, and it is keeping sub-par startups alive for too long. “There’s way too much money in the system ultimately chasing few really great companies. The problem with that is you have a bunch of imposter companies get funded for a lot longer than [is] traditionally the case.” |
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Mary Meeker 玛丽•米克 2014年，米克在年度互联网趋势报告中否认了泡沫的存在。2015年她就没那么看好行情了，她承认互联网公司的估值有些过高，不过其他领域的公司还是被低估了。她表示：“只有极少数公司能成为赢家，而且将成为大赢家。” |
Mary Meeker Last year, Meeker argued against a bubble in her annual Internet Trends report. This year she was less bullish, noting that there are pockets overvaluation at Internet companies, but other areas are undervalued. “There are few companies that will win -- but those who do will win big,” she said. |
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Roelof Botha 罗洛夫•博沙 这位红杉资本合伙人曾经在2008年做过一个名为“逝去吧！好时光”的著名演示。他对彭博社表示，如今的演示应该起名为“深浅灰”。他补充道，他认为科技泡沫离我们还远得很。 “如果你看看上市科技公司的估值，会发现没有出现1999年和2000年初那样的泡沫。人们总是拿过去那些他们认为估值过高的私企作为例证。我可以肯定，在任何时候都会有那么一些公司估值过高，最后遭遇失败。但我觉得你现在可能找不出所有公司都存在的系统性问题。” |
Roelof Botha The Sequoia Capital partner behind the famous 2008 “RIP Good Times” presentation told Bloomberg last week that today’s version of the presentation would be called “Shades of Grey.” He added that he doesn’t believe we’re anywhere near a tech bubble: “If you look at the valuations of public tech companies, it’s nowhere near the frothy levels that you saw in 1999 and early 2000. Often people point to anecdotal examples of private companies that they think are overvalued and I’m sure in the fullness of time, it’ll prove to be that some of them were overvalued and won’t be successful. But I’m not sure you can point to something systemic that cuts across all of those companies.” |
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Mark Cuban 马克•库班 这位《创智赢家》的明星曾发表博文称，现在的科技泡沫比2000年的互联网泡沫还要糟糕，原因在于，现在的私人公司股份还没有流动性。他写道：“比估值崩溃的市场还要糟糕的，是一个没有估值也没有流动性的市场。” |
Mark Cuban In March, the Shark Tank star blogged that the current tech bubble is worse than the dotcom bubble in 2000 because there’s no liquidity for private company shares. “The only thing worse than a market with collapsing valuations is a market with no valuations and no liquidity,” he wrote. |
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Jim Breyer 吉姆•布莱耶 这位Facebook和Etsy的幕后风险投资家最近表示，当下的繁荣有一半可能在一至两年内终结。 |
Jim Breyer The venture investor behind Facebook and Etsy recently said he sees a 50% probability that the current boom cycle will end in one to two years. |
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Brad Feld 布拉德•菲尔德 这位Foundry Group执行董事最近在博客上表达了他对创业公司烧钱速度越来越快的不安。他指出，每个月200万美元的资金消耗让他想吐，而每个月400万美元则会让他身体不适。他总结道：“更多创始人和投资者需要仔细思考独角兽公司的消亡，少花点精力来谈论和试图成为独角兽公司，这样做肯定没坏处。” |
Brad Feld The Foundry Group managing director recently expressed his discomfort with increasingly high burn rates in a blog post, noting that a monthly net burn rate of $2 million makes him vomit and $4 million one makes him physically ill. He concluded: “It’d be useful for more founders and investors to ponder unicorpses and spend less of their energy talking about, and trying to become, unicorns.” |
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Fred Wilson 弗雷德•威尔逊 这位Union Square Ventures的合伙人发表博文称，巨大的资金消耗率让他“好几个月都心情焦躁”。Union Square公司“投资的许多企业每个月都花掉好几百万美元”，这点让他很不高兴。他总结道，他希望更多的公司能建立真正的业务，创造真正的利润。 |
Fred Wilson Last year Wilson, a partner at Union Square Ventures, blogged that he’s been “grumpy for months” about sky-high burn rates. Union Square has “multiple portfolio companies burning multiple millions of dollars a month,” a fact he’s not happy about. He concluded that he wished more of his portfolio companies were building real business and generating real profits. |
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Todd Dagres 托德•达格瑞斯 这位Spark Capital的合伙人曾表示目前业界存在“泡沫”。他对彭博社表示：“我们绝对处在泡沫之中。这一次没有2000年那么糟。如果你醒过来发现整个房间都是独角兽公司，那你一定是在做梦，你也不能指望这个梦持续多久。” |
Todd Dagres The Spark Capital partner cried "bubble" in March. “We are definitely in a bubble," he told Bloomberg. "This one is not as bad as 2000. If you wake up in a room full of unicorns, you are dreaming and you can’t expect the dream to continue." |
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Kate Mitchell 凯特•米歇尔 这位Scale Venture Partners的投资人相信，公共市场的波动有可能让风险投资市场受益，因为如此一来，进入私人市场的大量公共市场资金就不会继续推高估值。她对财经频道CNBC表示：“那些外来的资金要回去了，我认为这意味着私人市场的供需会更加平衡。” |
Kate Mitchell The Scale Venture Partners investor believes public market volatility is likely to benefit the VC market, because the big public market funds that crept into the private markets will stop driving valuations up. “Those tourists are going to go home, and I think that means there will be a better balance of supply and demand in our markets," she told CNBC. |
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Jon Sakoda 琼•萨克达 “许多积极融资的公司难以达到估值预期，未来将不得不面临重新评估。”2015年8月，NEA公司合伙人萨克达表示，许多初创企业有愧于它们获得的高估值。(财富中文网) 译者：严匡正 审校：任文科 |
Jon Sakoda In August Sakoda, a partner at NEA, argued that a lot of startups aren’t going to live up to their high valuations. He told Reuters: "Many companies in the market for funding right now are struggling to meet their valuation expectations and are going to have to reassess.” |
