全球CEO对经济的信心下降

参加达沃斯论坛的商界精英们，对全球经济的信心水平较之前一年再次下降。

据普华永道最新调查显示，全球仅有27%的CEO认为，2016年全球经济将有所好转。一年前这一比例为37%；2014年，CEO们的信心最高，达到了44%。这家会计咨询公司对1300多名高管进行了调查，并在世界经济论坛正式开幕后的第一个晚上，发布了调查结果。世界经济论坛每年在瑞士召开。

美国CEO们明显更加悲观。仅有12%的美国CEO预计，世界经济将在2016年有所好转，一年前这一比例高达55%。此外，有27%表示全球经济增长将减速。

最近，大宗商品市场的下跌，已经表明全球经济增速正在放缓。事实上，我们很难得知CEO的态度是对市场下跌的反应，还是源自客户的反馈或者其他商业统计数据。实际上，有35%的全球CEO认为，他们的公司在未来12个月将保持增长，但这较一年前的46%也有所下降。

普华永道主席戴瑞礼表示，该事务所在12月份进行了该项调查。但考虑到2015年底以来的市场表现，他预计，CEO们的信心水平可能更低。

调查的预测值存在一个问题。在普华永道2013年的调查中，仅有20%的CEO相信经济增长率会提高。但当年的全球经济却实现了大幅增长。

奇怪的是，CEO们最大的担忧似乎并非源自经济方面。CEO们提出的给公司带来最大风险的原因，可以解读成企业界的各种不满。近80%的CEO表示，他们担心过度监管，69%的CEO担心税费提高的威胁。在商业方面，61%的CEO担心网络安全，排在了第一位。

戴瑞礼表示：“即便将调查结果分开解读，我们也可以明显看出，CEO对经济的信心水平相比前一年有了显著下降。”（财富中文网）

译者：刘进龙/汪皓

The Davos man is, once again, less confident than he was a year ago.

Only 27% of CEOs around the world think the global economy will improve in 2016, according to a new survey by PricewaterhouseCoopers. That was down from 37% a year ago; confidence peaked 2014 at 44%. The accounting and consulting firm released the survey of more than 1,300 top executives on the first official night of the World Economic Forum, the global confab held each year in Switzerland.

U.S. CEOs are strikingly more pessimistic. Just 12% of them predicted the world economy would improve in 2016, which was down from 55% a year ago. What’s more, 27% said global economic growth is likely to decline.

The recent drop in commodities markets has been suggesting that the global economy could be slowing. Indeed, it’s hard to know whether the CEO attitudes are a reaction to the drop in markets, or a result of them reporting back what they see from customers or other business statistics. Indeed, 35% of all CEOs thought their own company would grow in the next 12 months, but even that was down from 46% a year ago.

PwC’s chairman, Dennis Nally, noted that the survey was taken in December. Given what markets have done since the end of 2015, he said he would expect that confidence had dropped even further.

And there was a question about the survey’s predictive value. Only 20% of CEOs were confident growth would increase when PwC did the survey in 2013. Yet world growth rose that year.

Oddly, the biggest concern among CEOs did not appear to be driven by the economy. The list of reasons CEOs said were the biggest risks to their businesses reads as the typical laundry list of corporate complaints. Nearly 80% said they were worried about overregulation, and 69% cited the threat of higher taxes. Among business concerns, 61% said they were worried about cybersecurity, which was the No. 1 business concern.

“Even when you pull the survey apart, it’s clear the confidence level of CEO was down in a significant way from last year,” says Nally.