达沃斯论坛更应关注2亿气候难民

本周，各国商界和政界的领袖齐聚达沃斯世界经济论坛，预计气候变化问题将是许多人关注的焦点，因为另一种难民危机即将爆发。这次的危机与种族或地缘政治冲突无关。原因在于我们的环境。

多年的气候恶化造成了饥荒、洪水、干旱和其他环境冲击与压力，导致整个社区和人口不得不离开家园，到其他地方寻求庇护。据挪威难民理事会（Norwegian Refugee Council）统计，自2008年以来，每年平均有2,640万人——相当于每秒钟一个人——因为自然灾害的原因，被迫背井离乡。

受到干旱和饥荒的威胁，成千上万的索马里人和埃塞俄比亚人逃往肯尼亚的难民营；而在孟加拉国，气候变化已经造成海岸地区居民向城市更快速度迁移。如果气候变化不能得到抑制，到2050年，气候难民的人数将达到2亿人。而且这个威胁不止限于一个地区——它将带来全球性的影响，不论发展中国家还是发达国家都难以幸免。全世界要想阻止气候移民潮，各国政府、慈善界、商界和公民社会的领导者们，必须从现在开始采取一些关键措施。

首先是认识到问题的存在。按照国际法规定，气候变化导致的移民被视为“流离失所”问题，而不是难民问题。实际上，对于“移民”和“难民”的区别，欧洲最近一直在争论不休，因为各国都在尽量限制提供避难所的人数。国际法律可以追溯到1951年，当时气候变化并不是人们关注的问题，因此国际法律只规定了为因战争和迫害被迫离开国家的人提供保护。从法律上来说，各国没有义务帮助或收容气候难民。

但决策者们必须修改法律，为因气候变化被迫前往其他国家寻求庇护的人们提供更多权利。

其次是找到新的融资解决方案，吸引私有部门的资金参与气候变化适应能力的建设，例如种植抗旱作物和利用土地灌溉系统，最大程度减少干旱对农业生产和生活的影响。但仅发展中国家每年便需要为此投入2,000亿至3,000亿美元，这是许多国家无法承受的。

新成立的绿色气候基金（Green Climate Fund）或许可以提供帮助，但这远远不够。参与绿色气候基金的发达国家，同意至2020年每年投入1,000亿美元，解决气候变化带来的严重后果。慈善人士和发展组织必须致力于推广当今的创新融资机制，使我们可以落实解决方案，为苦苦应对气候变化影响的人们和社区提供支持，让他们过上有保障、有尊严的生活。

例如，目前正在开发的极端气候调节机制（Extreme Climate Facility，XCF）便是一种创新的融资机制，旨在为非洲国家提供资金，专门用于增强这些国家的气候适应性。该机制预计将在未来30年内，发行超过10亿美元债券。机构投资者和私人资本是填补资金缺口的关键，但我们只能通过与XCF的“灾难债券”类似的解决方案来实现这个目标。这种债券专门面向全球资本市场的机构投资者发行。

最后一个关键的步骤是，在受影响社区提供有意义的影响，在自然灾害之后及时获得资金支持是关键。人们往往不会在自然灾害发生之后立刻离开家乡，他们只有在别无选择、看不到希望的时候才会离开。只要人们可以及时获得资金支持，他们便有机会恢复生活，留在自己的家园，帮助重建社区。

非洲风险能力（African Risk Capacity）的灾害保险创建于2014年，这个保险解决方案希望通过为非洲政府提供资金，面对气候灾害进行及时干预，以解决这个问题。非洲风险能力的目标是，到2020年，为30个国家提供近15亿美元的干旱、洪水和台风保险——间接为1.6亿非洲人提供保险。

目前正在开发的另外一种解决方案是金融危机风险管理（Financial Disaster Risk Management），这一新型融资机制旨在更快为小额贷款机构提供资金，使他们可以为生活在非洲、亚洲和南美洲灾难易发地区的人们提供贷款。该方案预计截至2020年可融资超过3亿美元。相比依靠短暂的外部支持或人道主义援助，小额贷款机构提供的贷款，可以大幅促进就业，重建受灾害冲击的经济。

未来可能会产生2亿气候难民，因此很显然，解决这个问题不能只靠更严格的边境管制，或者公平的迁移安置配额。相反，问题的解决必须依靠国际金融机构和国际发展组织的共同努力，他们必须认识到气候移民非常人性的一面，人们做出这个决定不是出于没有选择，而是出于绝望。要想阻止气候变化的破坏，我们必须想方设法为人们提供必要的资源，增强人们对气候变化的适应能力，使他们留在自己最爱的家乡。

本文作者萨阿迪亚·麦兹伯格现任洛克菲勒基金会（The Rockefeller Foundation）的执行理事，该基金会为XCF和金融灾难风险管理的研发提供了资金。

译者：刘进龙/汪皓

As business and political leaders gather for the World Economic Forum in Davos this week, climate change will be top of mind for many, as another refugee crisis is poised to begin. This one, however, won’t be because of ethnic or geopolitical strife. The cause will be our own environment.

Years of climate degradation has resulted in famine, floods, drought, and other environmental shocks and stresses that are leading entire communities and populations to leave their homes to seek refuge elsewhere. Since 2008, an average of 26.4 million people annually — the equivalent of one person every second — have been forced to leave their homes due to natural catastrophes, according to the Norwegian Refugee Council.

Threatened by drought and starvation, thousands of Somalis and Ethiopians have fleed to refugee camps in Kenya; while in Bangladesh, climate change has forced accelerated migration from coastal regions to cities. If climate change continues unchecked, as many as 200 million climate refugees may be on the move by 2050. The threat will not be isolated to a single region — the impact will be global and felt by both developing and developed nations alike. If the world stands a chance to stem the tide of climate migration, there are several crucial steps that leaders across government, philanthropy, business and civil society should be taking now.

The first step is recognition of the problem. Climate-based migration is considered a “displacement” issue, not a refugee issue, according to international laws. Indeed, the debate about the distinction between “migrant” and “refugee” has recently surfaced in Europe as countries seek to limit the number of people for whom they provide asylum. International laws dating back to 1951, when climate change was not an issue, provide protection only for people forced to leave their countries because of war and persecution. Legally, nations have no obligations to help or house climate refugees.

Policymakers must reform the laws and provide greater rights to people forced to seek refuge in other countries due to climate change.

The second step is to find new financing solutions that attract funding from the private sector to climate resilience efforts, such as planting drought-resistant seeds and using land irrigation systems that minimize the impact of droughts on agricultural production and livelihoods. But many countries can’t afford these expenses, estimated to be between $200 and $300 billion a year for developing countries alone.

The new Green Climate Fund, where advanced economies have agreed to invest $100 billion per year by 2020 to address the consequences of climate change, may be helpful, but it won’t be enough. Philanthropists and development institutions must focus on surfacing those innovative financing mechanisms today, so that we can put in place solutions that will support individuals and communities in their struggle with the impacts of climate change — and allow them to live with security and dignity.

For example, the Extreme Climate Facility (XCF) is a new innovative financing mechanism currently in development that aims to provide African countries with funds dedicated to climate adaptation. The facility is anticipated to issue more than $1 billion in bonds over the next 30 years. Institutional investors and private capital are the key to closing the funding gap, but we will only reach that goal with solutions like XCF’s “catastrophe bonds” that will be intentionally offered to institutional investors in global capital markets.

The last critical step is providing a meaningful impact on affected communities, immediate access to funds following natural disasters is essential. People don’t generally choose to leave their homes immediately after a natural disaster—they leave when they run out of options and have exhausted all hope. With access to immediate funding, people have a chance to bounce back, remain in their homes, and help rebuild their communities.

The African Risk Capacity catastrophe insurance pool, created in 2014, is an insurance solution that attempts to solve this problem by providing African governments with access to funds for timely interventions in response to climate disasters. By 2020, the African Risk Capacity aims to reach 30 countries with nearly $1.5 billion of coverage against drought, flood and cyclones—indirectly insuring 160 million Africans.

Another solution currently in development is Financial Disaster Risk Management, a new financing mechanism designed to channel funds more quickly to micro-finance institutions so that they can provide loans to people living in disaster prone areas of Africa, Asia, and South America. The facility is anticipated to raise more than $300 million in funds by 2020. Rather than depending on external support or humanitarian aid, which is often short-lived, loans from micro-finance institutions can significantly boost job creation and rebuild a disaster-struck economy.

As we look toward a future that includes potentially 200 million climate refugees on the move, it’s clear that the answers won’t lie with stricter border controls or equitable relocation quotas. Instead, solutions will emerge from joint efforts by international financial institutions and international development organizations that recognize that there’s a very human face to climate migration, and that it’s a decision made not out of choice, but out of desperation. If we are to beat back the ravages of climate change, we must find ways to ensure that people have the resources to stay resilient and remain where they want to be: at home.

Saadia Madsbjerg is managing director of The Rockefeller Foundation, which has provided grant funding for the research and development of XCF and Financial Disaster Risk Management.