对冲基金教父：中国经济感觉就像在衰退

全球最大的对冲基金桥水公司创始人雷·达里奥认为，中国经济正走向“某种衰退”，持续时间恐怕会长达三年。

世界第二大经济体让全球最大对冲基金的经理深感忧虑。他使用了“衰退”一词。

雷·达里奥在全球对冲基金领域极具影响力。他一手创建的桥水公司如今掌管着多达1600亿美元的资金。这位教父级大佬表示，中国经济正走向“某种衰退”，持续时间恐怕会长达三年。达里奥表示，这将给全球经济和美联储带来难以估量的影响。

达里奥在瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛上表示：“中国将对世界经济产生负面影响。中国正在进行周期性调整，全球的通缩压力将由此加剧。”

达里奥称，中国最大的问题在于国际收支平衡。目前，流出中国的资金远远多于流入资金。根据国际金融研究所的数据，2015年有高达6760亿美元逃离中国。他还表示，多年的政府开支导致地方债务问题日益严峻。他说，尽管地方政府支出约占GDP的30%，但这些开支已经比地方政府预算高出20%。消除这些赤字，将使得中国GDP增速减少6个百分点，达里奥说。

对此，中国工商银行董事长姜建清表示，中国的地方债务仍在可控范围，尽管中国房地产存在供给过度的情况，但住宅正在迅速出售，对其他类型房地产的需求也在增长。此外，政府和消费者都有了更强的负债能力。政府数据显示，一线城市的房价在过去几个月有所增长，尽管中西部城市的房价仍在下跌。

达里奥表示：“中国的债务目前来看还不算太高，但债务增速正在超过收入增速，这种情况持续不了多久。”

达里奥并不认为中国经济会出现负增长，或是接近负增长。不过，他认为，中国的经济增速在接下来几年将会降至5%或更低——感觉就像衰退一样。中国政府为2015年设定的目标GDP增速是7%，但最终未能达成，而且许多西方经济体担心最终数据依然有所夸大。达里奥说：“多年前，我们曾经把日本3%的增速看作衰退。对中国来说，我认为这个基准线是5%。”

达里奥认为中国经济从长期来看仍将有较好表现，从整体来看，监管部门和决策者在应对目前的经济问题上做得很好。

高盛公司的盖瑞·柯恩也参加了这次研讨会。他表示，尽管中国政府下定决心要转变经济增长方式，但相较于政府开支，依靠消费支出拉动经济往往要难得多。

柯恩表示：“大多数市场参与者都相信，人民币汇率将在2016年走低。”(财富中文网)

译者：严匡正

审校：任文科

It will definitely feel like one, even if Beijing’s statistics suggest otherwise.

The manager of the world’s largest hedge fund is worried about the world’s second-largest economy, and he’s using the R-word.

Ray Dalio, who heads the $160 billion hedge fund firm Bridgewater, says China’s economy is headed for a “sort-of recession,” that will last as long as three years. Dalio says the implications of that could be huge for the world economy, and the U.S. Federal Reserve.

“China is going to be a negative for the world economy,” says Dalio, who was talking on Thursday morning on a panel at the World Economic Forum. “China is going through a cyclical adjustment that will add to the world’s deflationary pressures.”

Dalio said China’s biggest problem is its balance of payments, with more money flowing out of the country than is coming in (around $676 billion left the country last year, according to the Institute for International Finance). Dalio also said China’s economy, after years of government spending, has a local debt problem. Dalio said that local government spending accounts for about 30% of GDP. Yet, Dalio says the average local government is now 20% over budget. Erasing those deficits, Dalio says, would cut six percentage points off of China’s GDP growth.

Jiang Jainqing, who is the head of board chairman of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China IDCBY 1.42% , the world’s biggest bank by assets, said that China’s local debt is manageable, and while there is a glut of real estate in China, houses are rapidly filling up, and demand is catching up for other properties. What’s more, the government and consumers have more capacity to borrow. Government data suggest house prices have been rising in the country’s top-tier cities for the last few months, although prices in cities further inland are still falling.

“China’s debt is not too high right now,” says Dalio. “But it’s growing faster than incomes and that’s not sustainable.”

Dalio doesn’t actually expect China’s growth rate to turn negative or even close to it. He does say, though, that the country’s economic growth will likely fall to 5% or lower for the next few years, and that that will feel like a recession. China’s government has targeted GDP growth around 7%, but undershot that in 2015, even according to figures that many western economists fear were inflated. “Years ago we used to describe 3% growth in Japan as a recession,” says Dalio. “For China, I think that level is 5%.”

Dalio still thinks China’s economy will do well in the long term, and that regulators and policy-makers have generally done a good job in dealing with the current economic troubles.

Goldman Sachs’ GS -1.37% Gary Cohn, who was also on the panel with Dalio, says the problem for China is that, as it makes the transition to a consumer economy, it is harder to generate spending than when growth was being driven by the government.

“Most market participants believe China’s currency will be lower at the end of 2016 than it is today,” says Cohn.