中国盯上“投机者”索罗斯

《人民日报》海外版刊发文章称：“索罗斯对人民币和港元的挑战不可能成功——对此无须怀疑。”

中国官方媒体之所以如此警告索罗斯，是因为他日前预测称中国经济面临资本外逃、传统产业衰退、债务仍居高不下等问题，未来会面临更多困难。

索罗斯以1992年做空英镑闻名，当年他击溃支持本币的英国央行斩获了10亿美元。虽然自此之后，索罗斯的投资战绩远称不上完美无缺，但他做空英镑之举，无疑向所有央行发出了警告：如果本币汇率实际上已疲弱，不要试图维持其强势地位。

不过，索罗斯从未宣布在做空人民币和港元。

在瑞士达沃斯的世界经济论坛期间，索罗斯没怎么提具体投资策略，只是表示在做空美股和亚洲货币。

中国如此激动是有原因的。除了索罗斯的空头背景，人民币对美元汇率2015年一直走弱，自去年夏季以来累计下跌6%，导致中国资本外流。据估计，中国2015年全年资本外流规模可能达到1万亿美元。

中国央行已经承诺要保持人民币汇率稳定，人民币离岸汇率随即跳涨。这或许正是受中国央行入市购汇所致。

即便无需对战索罗斯，中国的技术专家型高官也有许多经济问题要处理。1月27日，中国股市又大跌6%，创14个月新低。然而，中国对付“投机者”也许会招来更多态度更积极、财力更雄厚的投机者。（财富中文网）

译者：Pessy

校对：夏林

China’s state press is warning George Soros not to bet against its currency after the hedge fund star-turned philanthropist predicted a “hard landing” for its economy last week.

“Soros’ challenge against the renminbi and Hong Kong dollar is unlikely to succeed, there is no doubt about that,” the overseas edition of People’s Daily, the Communist Party’s main mouthpiece, saidTuesday.

The admonition came after Soros predicted more trouble for the Chinese economy, which is hampered by capital outflows, old industries in recession, and still-mounting debt.

Soros is known for his 1992 bet against the pound and famously breaking the Bank of England, earning $1 billion in the process. His investment record since then is far from perfect, but that 1992 bet sterling has been a warning to all central banks ever since against trying to defend unrealistically strong exchange rates.

But Soros never said he was betting against the renminbi or Hong Kong dollar.

At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Soros was light on specifics, only saying he was betting against U.S. stocks and Asian currencies.

China has reason to be defensive. In addition to Soros’ history, the renminbi has weakened against the U.S. dollar over the past year—six percent since the summer—driving capital outflows, which according to estimates may have reached $1 trillion last year.

The country’s central bank has promised to keep the currency stable. And today, the yuan jumped higher in offshore trading, probably because of central bank purchases.

China’s technocrats have plenty of economic problems to deal with, even if they don’t have to battle Soros. The local stock market fell another 6% to a new 14-month low. But in lashing out at ‘speculators’, China may ultimately invite more aggressive and better-funded bets against their policy.