实例：一家外企如何应对中国经济下行影响

许多投资者都想知道中国经济下行究竟会对美国经济产生多大影响，联合技术公司（United Technologies）近期发布的收益报告，对这个问题有非常不错的参考价值。同时它也表明，世界其他地区的经济正呈现稳健发展，能在相当程度上抵消全球第二大经济体增速放缓所造成的不利影响。

联合技术公司是一家历史悠久的制造企业，主要生产用于楼宇和飞机的一些重要设备，比如飞机发动机、制动器、空调和电梯等等。它旗下最盈利的部门就是我们熟知的奥的斯电梯（Otis Elevator），其运营利润率高达20%左右。十多年来，中国市场一直是奥的斯最重要的增长引擎。由于中国举世瞩目的城镇化进程，奥的斯理所当然地认为中国业务的飞速增长还会持续下去。该公司所有新生产出来的电梯有近70%都卖到了从上海到青海的中国各大省市。

2006到2013年间，奥的斯在中国的营收入平均每年增长20%左右。现在这种增长势头出现了逆转。在2015年的大部分时间里，奥的斯的营收下跌程度并不大，这是因为2015年奥的斯还有很多订单尚未交货。该公司CFO阿希尔•约里对《财富》杂志表示：“如果我们今天收到一个订单，需要9到18个月的时间才能将电梯安装好。2015年销量的下滑并没有订单下滑得厉害，因为我们去年还有相当一部分积压的订单需要交货。”

尽管如此，奥的斯去年在华营收还是下滑了7%，算上人民币相对美元的贬值，这个数字还会进一步放大。而订单数量则下滑得更严重，2015年的订单数要比2014年低了13%。根据约里的预测，在计算过汇率影响后，今年奥的斯在中国的新电梯销售收入将下跌10%左右。

不过从总体上看，联合技术公司的收益还不算很糟糕。2015年，该公司的调整后收益为每股6.30美元，在排除强势美元因素的影响后，仅比上年下跌2%。该公司去年第四季度的收益还要略好于分析师之前的预期。

首先，新设备的销售额约占了奥的斯在华营收入的90%左右，另外10%则主要来自已安装电梯的维修保养服务。今年奥的斯的这项业务扩张了20%之多，这主要是由于过去几年中，建筑物所有人纷纷签订了让奥的斯非常有利可图的电梯维保合同。约里表示，维保服务的强势增长将在一定程度上抵消新电梯销量的剧烈下滑，将营收入的缩水额控制在7%左右（以固定汇率计算）。

近来美国建筑市场的复苏也在一定程度上抵消了中国业务的疲软。自金融危机以来，美国建筑业元气大伤，商业用房和住宅楼的建设长时间没有回暖。2015年，随着美国多地的建筑机械重新开工，北美地区的电梯订单飙升了50%，而且今年这种增长趋势还在持续。另外，除了中国，亚洲其他国家的建筑业也呈现强势增长，尤其是新加坡。总体上看，联合技术公司预计其营业利润将下滑2亿美元，下滑幅度仅为8%左右，而且前提还是人民币相对美元继续贬值。

即便如此，奥的斯今年的运营利润也有望超过18%。而且中国电梯市场的长期展望依然是乐观的，原因有二：

第一，中国的城镇化大趋势没有变，平均每年都有1500万到2000万名农村居民移居到城市；

第二，维保收入还将继续增加，而且速度还会加快。

约里表示：“这个模式的美妙之处，就在于如果你安装了设备，按照法律规定，你还得为这些电梯提供服务。”而在中国，由于相应法规刚刚出台不久，因此建筑物的所有人正在蜂拥地签订新的服务合同，而这种趋势应该会使奥的斯的维保收入显著增加。

总体来看，联合技术公司的管理层认为，2016年，公司的增长率应该是在一位数的低段至中段，并表示该公司的几项业务将在未来几年内恢复增长势头。

比如，它旗下的普惠（Pratt & Whitney）发动机部门最新研制的极为节能的Geared Turbofan发动机已经获得了7000个订单，该发动机目前已经安装在空客A320neo客机上，它很快也将出现在其它几款机型上。

另外，联合技术旗下的航空航天系统（Aerospace Systems）部门也获得了来自空客A320neo和波音787的大单。该公司如今为一架飞机提供的零部件包括制动器、发动机舱、动力系统等等，提供的内容是15年前的五倍。

2014年底，格雷格•海耶斯取代了路易斯•切尼弗特，成为联合技术公司的新任CEO。此后他明智地卖掉了公司的直升机部门——西科斯基飞机公司（Sikorsky）。据说这个动议起初受到了切尼弗特的反对，而这也可能正是导致切尼弗特离职的原因。通过这笔交易，海耶斯从买家洛克希德马丁公司手中拿到了90亿美元的高价。

2016年1月26日，洛克希德马丁公司宣布，西科斯基公司的商用直升机销量显著下跌。许多石油公司原本都使用直升机向海上钻井平台运送工人，但现在这些石油公司都停止购买新的直升机了。

与此同时，联合技术公司的股票似乎已经做好了飙升的准备。自从2015年年初以来，该公司的股价已经下跌了25%，目前的价格约在85美元左右。其市盈率也由17左右跌至13.4，股息生息率则从2.2%提高到3%。

多年以来，联合技术公司在向股东返利方面，做得一向好于它的康涅狄格州的“老乡”——通用电气公司（GE）。通用电气虽然规模更大，但联合技术却做得更好。它在面临中国经济下行压力时表现出的韧性，更加证明了这个工业巨人所具有的增长潜力。(财富中文网)

译者：朴成奎

For investors parsing the impact of China’s slowdown on the U.S. economy, United Technologies’ earnings last week were a pretty good primer on the size of the drag. It also showed how surprisingly sturdy growth in many other parts of the world economy can buffer weakness in the world’s second largest economy.

United Technologies is an old-line maker of essentials that fill and power buildings and airplanes, everything from aircraft engines and brakes to air conditioning systems and elevators. Its most profitable division is Otis Elevator, with rich operating margins in the 20% range. For more than a decade, China has been a great growth engine for Otis, and given China’s phenomenal urbanization story makes China, United Technologies expected that to continue. Between nearly 70% of all newly-manufactured elevators are sold in cities from Shanghai to Qinghai.

From roughly 2006 to 2013, Otis’ revenues from China surged around 20% a year. But now, the long upward trend has gone into reverse. The decline was muted during much of 2015 because Otis started the year with a backlog. “We pick up an order today, and it takes nine to eighteen months to install the elevator,” CFO Akhil Johri told Fortune. “Last year, sales didn’t decline as much as orders, because we were still working off a decent backlog.”

Still, Otis’ revenues from China fell 7%, adjusting for the decline in the yuan versus the dollar that amplified that figure. Orders are dropping more sharply—they were down 13% for 2015 versus 2014. Johri predicts that revenues from new elevators will decline around 10% this year in China, after the effect of exchange rates.

And yet, in all, United Technologies earnings weren’t all that bad. For 2015, the company’s adjusted earnings were $6.30 a share, down just 2% from the year before, after adjusting for a stronger dollar. The company’s fourth quarter earnings were slightly better than analysts had expected.

First of all, new equipment sales account for 90% of Otis’ revenues from China; the other 10% is maintenance on servicing the installed lifts, and that business is expanding as much as 20% this year as the building owners sign lucrative maintenance contracts on the equipment installed over the past few years. The strong growth in servicing, according to Johri, will partially offset the sharp fall in sales of new elevators, reducing the revenue shrinkage to around 7%, in constant currency.

And weakness in China was offset by a surge of building activity in the U.S. In the U.S., the financial crisis sapped construction of residential and office towers. But last year, orders in North America jumped 50% as the building cranes returned, and the surge continues. High-rise construction is also strong in Asian markets outside China, notably Singapore. All told, United Technologies forecasts a drop in operating profits of as much as $200 million, about 8%, and that’s only if the yuan continues falling against the dollar.

Even so, Otis should post operating margins exceeding 18%. And the long-term outlook for elevators in China is still positive, for two reasons. First, the urbanization story remains intact, as 15 to 20 million Chinese move from farms to cities each year. Second, the revenues from maintenance should keep waxing, at an accelerating pace. “The beauty of the model is that you install the equipment and you’re required by legislation to service those elevators,” says Johri. In China, that legislation is relatively new, so building owners are rushing to sign new service contracts, a trend that should swell Otis’ maintenance revenues.

All told, United Technologies’ management is projecting low-to-mid-single digit growth for 2016, and says the company is booking business that should restore growth in the years to come. Its Pratt & Whitney engines division has won 7,000 orders for its new, super-energy efficient Geared Turbofan engine, that’s now aloft on the Airbus A320neo, and will also power several other aircraft. Its Aerospace Systems unit has won big contracts for the neo and Boeing 787, and now supplies five-times the content per plane—brakes, nacelles, power systems, and the like—as it did fifteen years ago.

Greg Hayes, who replaced Louis Chenevert as CEO of United Technologies in late 2014, made a good move in selling the Sikorsky helicopter unit—a gambit reportedly opposed by Chenevert, and that may have led to his departure. Hayes garnered a premium price of $9 billion for Sikorsky from its acquirer, Lockheed Martin. On January 26, Lockheed announced that Sikorsky’s commercial helicopter sales had fallen sharply. Oil companies that use the choppers to transport workers to offshore platforms have stopped growing their fleets.

At the same time, United Technologies stock looks like its ready to fly. It’s fallen 25% since the start of 2015 to around $85. That decline has lowered its price-to-earnings ratio from almost 17 to 13.4, and lifted its dividend yield from 2.2% to 3%. For years, United Technologies has been beating its Connecticut (soon to be Massachusetts) neighbor GE in returns to shareholders. GE is bigger, but United Technologies is better. Its resilience in the face of the downturn in China provides more proof this industrial stalwart is light on its feet.