中国进出口贸易开年不利

中国1月份进出口数据远低于经济学家的预期。但或许要等到2月份数据公布后，投资者才能更加清晰地预测中国经济今年的前景。

最新的中国贸易数据显示，中国开年贸易疲软，可能会加剧市场对中国经济严重放缓的担忧。

1月份出口总额同比下降11.2%，经济学家之前预测中国出口会小幅下降2%。进口回落近20%。许多经济学家此前预测，与去年大部分时间类似，中国进出口数据会缓慢好转。2015年初，中国进出口总额也曾大幅下降，之后开始缓慢复苏。当时的下跌并未使各界对中国的前景产生怀疑。资本经济公司（Capital Economics）的中国经济学家朱利安·埃文斯-普理查德曾对中国贸易抱有较高的预期，他在文章中写道：“目前的数据意味着，我们的预测可能是错误的，或者至少可以说，中国迎来了更加不稳定的开年。”

疲软的出口数据也表明全球贸易陷入低迷：中国对美国出口同比下降9.7%；对欧盟出口同比下降11.9%；对两个亚洲最大贸易合作伙伴日本和韩国的出口总额，同比分别下降了5.3%和15.9%。

中国的进口数据更令人担忧。1月份，按美元计算，中国进口总额年比下降18.8%，12月份下降了7.6%。野村证券首席中国经济学家赵阳将进口数据疲软归因于国内经济低迷，以及政府为减少工业部门产能过剩所采取的措施。

此外，显而易见，12月份进口总额的实际下降幅度可能高于官方公布的7.6%，因为一些公司利用超额发票向境外转移资金，进而夸大了进口数据。去年，由于人民币兑美元贬值，许多中国大陆公司选择香港的贸易伙伴，通过使用人民币支付虚开的发票，加快向境外转移资本。

所以，尽管1月份进口数据高达两位数的下降令所有人感到意外，但12月份的情况可能同样糟糕。

现在对中国在2016年的经济状况下定论仍为时尚早。分析人士认为，年初的数据通常并不可靠，因为中国农历新年假期的时间并不固定。在一周春节假期期间，中国经济实际上处于停工状态，并且中国消费者会购买礼物，类似于西方的圣诞节。实际上，在春节假期期间，零售销售额增长了11.2%，这意味着中国的消费需求依旧强劲。

此外，进口的低迷程度可能被夸大。虽然大宗商品价格下跌导致中国主要大宗商品的进口总额下降，但进口量却以两位数增长。有投资者推测，中国是大宗商品价格下跌的主要赢家——获益4600亿美元。

由于1月份的贸易数据存在缺陷，因此投资者或许要等到2月份数据公布之后，才能更加清晰地预测今年中国的经济前景。(财富中文网)

译者：刘进龙/汪皓

审校：任文科

Export and imports come in far below expectations.

The latest trade figures out of China depict a dreary start to the year and may only heighten anxieties about a serious economic slowdown in the country.

Exports fell by 11.2% in January from the year before, whereas economists were expecting a modest decline of about 2%, and imports plummeted by almost 20%. Many economists had expected both figures to continue improving at the slow pace they had for most of last year, ever since recovering from a dramatic fall to start 2015. The fact that they did not created fresh doubts about China’s prospects. One of those who expected better figures, Capital Economics’ China economist Julian Evans-Pritchard, wrote that “today’s data suggest that there is a risk we could be wrong or at least that the year has got off to a shakier start than expected.”

The ugly export data also indicated weakness across the world: China’s exports to the U.S. fell by 9.7% year-over-year; those to the European Union by 11.9%; and those to its two largest trading partners in Asia, Japan and South Korea, fell by 5.3% and 15.9%, respectively.

Imports were the more worrisome number for China. In January, imports in U.S. dollar terms fell by 18.8% compared to last year and a 7.6% decline in December. Nomura economists led by Yang Zhao ascribed the much weaker import data to a slumping home economy and government measures to reduce overcapacity in the industrial sector.

It’s also clear that the December decline was probably much worse than the officially-reported 7.6% because it was inflated by companies using overcharged invoices as a disguise for moving money out of the country. As the renminbi was losing value against the U.S. dollar last year, mainland Chinese companies used trading partners in Hong Kong to move more of their capital out of the country and Chinese currency by paying inflated invoices.

So the double-digit January fall in imports was a dreadful figure that surprised everyone. But it may have been nearly as bad in December.

Still, it may be too early to write off China in 2016. Analysts note that early year data is often unreliable because of the shifting date of the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, when the country’s economy effectively shuts down for a week and the Chinese buy gifts in a Christmas-esque display of consumerism. In fact, the holiday provided an encouraging note as retail sales during the holiday increased by 11.2% from last year, signaling a resilient Chinese consumer.

Also, the crash in imports may be overstated. Imports in major commodities rose by double-digits in volume in January even as the value of those fell because of the drop in commodity prices. Some investors have speculated China is a big winner in the commodities fall—to the tune of $460 billion.

Because of the flaws of January trade data, investors may have to wait till February figures are released to get a better outlook on China.