中国承诺将让经济保持强劲态势

春节过后，中国决策层共同向海内外投资者传递了一条信息，那就是中国政府将为不断放缓的经济提供支撑，保持人民币汇率稳定，同时确保就业处于稳定态势，即便是在产能过剩行业进行调整的情况下。

拿出一连串的“定心丸”后，中国政治领域将发生两件大事，一是2月底将在上海召开G20财长会议，二是下个月召开的全国两会将确立今后五年的经济发展规划。

2015年夏天，中国股市暴跌，8月份人民币又出人意料地贬值，这让全球市场受到震动，并让外界担心中国这个世界第二大经济体是否健康，以及中国政府是否有能力在应对经济长期放缓的同时实施重大结构性调整。

中国国家发改委发言人赵辰昕2月17日在北京对记者表示：“中国经济的基本面没有发生变化。中国经济仍将保持中高速增长。”

赵辰昕说：“中国外汇储备第一大国的地位没有变，较大规模的贸易顺差没有变，人民币国际化稳步推进的态势也没有变。”

不过，2015年中国GDP增速为6.9%，是25年来的最低水平。经济学家同时预计，尽管政府延长了已经实施一年的促增长措施，今年中国经济将进一步降温。

光大证券首席经济学家徐高在北京表示：“我们预计今年中国经济增速为6.7-6.8%。硬着陆风险不大。这种风险可能来自不恰当的政府政策。只要政策对路，硬着陆风险就非常小。”

春节前，某地方发改委发布公告称，国家发改委计划为地方基础设施项目安排4000亿元人民币（613亿美元）资金。

国家发改委表示，1月份已批准投资541亿元人民币，以便支持经济增长。2015年发改委批准的项目金额为2.52万亿元人民币。

2月16日，中国人民银行也出台了支持工业企业的措施。

数据同时表明，1月份中国新增人民币贷款达到了创纪录的2.51万亿元，远远超过市场预期。这也表明中国仍维持着宽松的货币政策。

此外，商务部发言人也在表示，资本外逃风险不大，而且人民币没有持续贬值的基础。人民币贬值正是今年初全球市场大幅下挫的原因之一。

不过，国际市场以及中国的主要贸易伙伴仍对中国的汇率政策感到担心。

中国人民银行曾在六个月内给了投资者两记重拳——该行分别在去年8月和今年初突然大幅下调人民币兑美元汇率。随后，为了稳定人民币，它又迅速而果断地实施了干预。

2015年中国人民银行动用的外汇储备数量创下了历史记录。它通过卖出美元、买入人民币来支撑人民币汇率，并逼退了押宝人民币将进一步贬值的投机者。

G20财长和央行行长会议将于本月底在上海举行，预计人民币将成为会议的主要议题之一。

虽然中国政府的最新承诺可能缓解了外界对人民币立即大幅贬值的担忧，但大多数经济学家和货币策略分析师都预计，在中国经济出现企稳迹象前，人民币将继续面临压力，资本也将继续外流。

徐高指出：“春节过后，国务院和各部委都释放出了积极信号。”

“就经济而言，政府提升投资规模的空间仍非常大。2016年是十三五（2016-2020年）开局之年，政府将确保今年经济增速至少达到6.5%。”

赵辰昕也表示，中国有能力也有信心保持稳定的就业水平，不会受到政府化解煤炭和钢铁过剩产能以及处置“僵尸企业”的影响。

他说，中国政府将采取措施解决产能过剩问题，但也会努力减少下岗工人数量。

新华社上个月报道，中国打算削减1-1.5亿吨钢材产能，这可能造成40万人失业。

虽然大多数私营机构经济学家都说目前看来中国经济不存在急剧恶化的风险，但他们也都坚持认为，中国经济将缓慢地波浪式下行。

瑞银驻香港特约首席经济学家汪涛周一发表报告称：“我们预计中国经济将继续放缓，企业资产负债情况将恶化。”

“不过，我们认为立即出现系统性金融危机的风险非常小，原因是国内储蓄水平高，银行流动性充足，政府广泛参股银行和众多债权人，以及资本管制措施。”(财富中文网)

译者：Charlie

校对：詹妮

Chinese policymakers emerged from the Lunar New Year hiatus with one collective message for nervous investors at home and abroad - Beijing will put a floor under the slowing economy, keep its currency steady and ensure employment remains stable even as bloated industries undergo restructuring.

The string of assurances comes ahead of two high-profile political events for China: a meeting of G20 finance chiefs in Shanghai later this month and next month's annual gathering of China's legislature - where the next five-year economic development plan will be finalised.

A rout in Chinese stocks last summer and its unexpected devaluation of the yuan CNY=CFXS in August have rattled global markets, raising concerns about the health of the world's second-largest economy and Beijing's ability to steer it simultaneously through both a protracted slowdown and radical restructuring.

"China's economic fundamentals have not changed," Zhao Chenxin, a spokesman for the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the country's top economic planner, told reporters in Beijing on Wednesday. "The economy will maintain a medium- to high-rate growth."

"China's status as the world's largest holder of foreign exchange reserves has not changed, the large-scale trade surplus has not changed and the steady progress in the yuan internationalization has not changed," Zhao said.

Still, gross domestic product expanded 6.9 percent in 2015, the slowest in a quarter of a century, and economists see a further cooling this year even if the government expands its year-long stimulus campaign.

"We think growth could be 6.7-6.8 percent this year," said Xu Gao, chief economist of China Everbright Securities in Beijing.

"The risk of a hard landing is not big. The risk of a hard landing may come from improper government policies. If policies are right, the risk of a hard landing is very small."

The NDRC plans to allocate 400 billion yuan ($61.3 billion) to fund local governments' infrastructure projects, a local branch of the economic planner said in a statement before the long Lunar New Year break.

The economic planner said on Wednesday that it had okayed 54.1 billion yuan of investments in January - following approval of 2.52 trillion yuan worth of projects in 2015 - to help support growth.

The announcement followed measures announced by the central bank on Tuesday to support China's industries.

Data also showed banks doled out a record 2.51 trillion yuan of new loans in January, far more than markets had expected and suggesting Beijing is keeping monetary policy loose.

Separately, a spokesman for the commerce ministry on Wednesday downplayed the risk of capital flight, and said there is no basis for continued depreciation of the yuan, a scenario that has been one factor behind a massive sell-off in global markets early this year.

Still, global markets and China's major trading partners remain nervous about its foreign exchange policy.

The central bank has stunned investors twice in six months - in August and early this year - by allowing sudden, sharp drops in the value of the yuan against the U.S. dollar, only to intervene quickly and forcefully afterwards to steady it.

It burned through a record amount of foreign reserves in 2015 as it sold dollars and bought yuan to support the currency and deter speculators betting on further declines.

The yuan is expected to be among the key topics of discussion at the meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors from the Group of 20 economies in Shanghai at the end of this month.

While Beijing's latest assurances of stability may have tempered fears of an imminent and sharp devaluation, most economists and currency strategists expect the yuan will remain under pressure and capital outflows will continue until the economy shows some signs of leveling out.

"After the Lunar New Year, the cabinet and government ministries have all sent out positive signals," said Xu at China Everbright Securities.

"For the economy, there is still lots of room for the government to step up investment. 2016 is the first year of the 13th five-year plan (2016-2020) and the government will ensure growth of at least 6.5 percent this year."

NDRC's Zhao also said China has the ability and confidence to maintain stable employment levels, even as the government moves to curb overcapacity in the coal and steel sectors to squeeze out so-called "zombie firms".

The government will take steps to resolve factory overcapacity but will try to reduce the number of layoffs, he said.

China's plan to cut its steel production capacity by 100-150 million tonnes will lead to the loss of up to 400,000 jobs, the official Xinhua news agency reported last month.

And while most private economists agree the economy does not appear to be in danger of sharp deterioration at present, most are sticking to forecasts of a gradual and bumpy slowdown.

"We expect the economy to continue to slow and corporate balance sheets to worsen," Tao Wang, Hong Kong-based China economist at UBS, wrote in a report on Monday.

"However, we see the risk of an immediate systematic financial crisis as very small, due to high domestic saving and ample banking liquidity, extensive government ownership of banks and many debtors, and capital controls."