中国仍将经济增长作为第一要务

在刚刚过去的周末，中国一年一度的“两会”对未来一年进行了规划。与过去五年极为相似，今年的一个重头工作仍然是：经济增长。

没有对债务的忧虑，也不担心对自由市场施加更多影响的后果——这样的改革真糟糕。

中国总理李克强在上周六日召开了为期两天的会议，宣布今后五年的国内生产总值（GDP）增速目标为每年6.5%至7%，要“牢牢抓住发展第一要务不放松”。这是中国共产党自1995年以来第一次设立增长目标区间，当时中国的经济总量只有法国的一半。设立区间值也许是为了掌握更大的灵活性来应对混乱的经济状况。在中国北方，制造业城镇开始萧条；而在南方，以科技和消费者服务为主业的沿海城镇里，GDP有着每年近两位数的增长，房价也在飙升。

这一目标意味着至少在接下来这一年，中央会有大量宽松的财政和货币支出。

中国政府表示，中国自2009年起开始实施大规模刺激项目，由于基础设施的资本投资进一步增加，2016年的预算赤字将会达到GDP的3%，比2015年的2.3%有所上升。

中国国家发展和改革委员会负责起草预算和五年计划。发改委表示，到2018年，将有超过300个大型交通项目开始实施，包括修整机场，架设高铁，扩张常规交通网络。

一位经济学家把这种宽松政策称作“努力维持正常”。

经济增长是执政基础之一，而其中的一个核心承诺就是，到2020年，人均收入要实现翻番。如果无法在这期间保持6.5%的年均GDP增长，这个目标就不可能实现。

越来越多的西方投资者怀疑，中国高达约2.8倍GDP的债务、不景气的工业，和大量资金的外流，有可能导致短期的经济震荡，而中国政府于上周末表示，中国经济具有较强的支撑弹性空间。这听起来像是在为自己辩护。

负责起草五年计划的发改委被认为是中国顶尖经济规划机构。发改委主任徐绍史认为，中国经济硬着陆完全是不可能的。

针对乔治•索罗斯“中国经济即将‘硬着陆’”的预测，徐绍史在记者招待会上表示：“所谓‘硬着陆’的预言，是一定要落空的。请大家放心，不存在这种可能。”

那么，有没有可能中国债务水平已经无法维持，根本感觉不到更多的刺激政策和更高的经济目标带来的压力？好吧，或许也不存在这种可能。（财富中文网）

译者：严匡正

China’s annual spectacle of government meetings this weekend produced a promise for the next year that was remarkably similar to what China has said for much of the past half decade: economic growth is what’s important.

Not worries over debt, or tired concerns about giving free markets more influence—reforms be damned.

Premier Li Keqiang, the country’s second in command, on Saturday opened two days of meetings by announcing the annual GDP growth target range for the next five years of 6.5% to 7% and calling to give “top priority to development.” It’s the first time the Communist Party has set a growth range since 1995, when China’s economy was half the size of France’s, perhaps to give itself more flexibility in a confusing economy where manufacturing towns in the country’s north are in recession while the coastal southern towns specializing in technology and consumer services post nearly double-digit GDP growth and skyrocketing home prices.

The target means plenty of loose fiscal and monetary spending over at least the next year.

The budget deficit will increase to 3% of GDP for 2016, up from 2.3% in 2015, the government said, as more funds are funneled into the type of infrastructure-based capital spending that China has gorged itself on since a massive stimulus project in 2009.

This weekend the the National Reform and Development Commission, the policy group that drafts budgets and five-year plans, said more than 300 big transportation projects would begin between now and 2018, including revamped airports, more high speed rail, and the expansion of regular transportation networks.

One economist called the looser policy ‘running to stay in place.’

Economic growth is the cornerstone of such legitimacy as the Party has in China, and one of its core promises was to double per capita income from 2010 to 2020—a goal it can’t reach without 6.5% GDP growth till then.

The government crafted a strong message of resiliency this weekend amid more Western investors questioning whether the country’s rising debt levels, around 280% of GDP, stagnant industrial industries, and high levels of capital flight could produce a short-term shock to the economy. It all sounded defensive.

The head of the NDRC, which crafts the five-year plans and is generally considered the country’s top economic planner, said there was not even apossibility of a hard landing for the economy.

“Predictions of a hard landing are destined to come to nothing,” National Development and Reform Commission head Xu Shaoshi said at a news conference in response to a question about George Soros’s predictions. “Rest assured, this possibility does not exist.”

And the possibility that China’s already unsustainable debt levels won’t feel the pressure of more stimulus and more high economic targets? Well, that might not exist either.