Netflix股价为何一泻千里？

Netflix的投资者也许会觉得自己的心情就像坐了过山车，跟观看该公司新剧《杰西卡•琼斯》的感觉差不多。

一年来，Netflix的股价上涨了65%；但2015年12月初至今，这只股票回落的幅度超过25%。这还不是全部。今年2月份触底后，Netflix一度反弹17%；3月7日却又几乎下跌6%，股价已略低于96美元。到当天中午时分，Netflix已成为标普500指数中表现最差的个股。

Netflix剧烈震荡的理由很充分，那就是它很难预测。该公司在股市中没有真正的竞争对手，因此很难进行比较，它所在的行业也变化无常。分析师目前对它的估值介于每股85美元到155美元之间。一位分析师甚至相信，到2019年Netflix的价值可能达到每股200美元。难怪投资者会把它作为投机目标。

上周，Netflix的投资者也迎来了一些好消息，或者说看上去是利好的消息。来自股票研究机构MoffettNathanson的行业专家迈克尔•内桑森称，Netflix令2015年美国电视收视量出现了约一半的跌幅。据娱乐网站Variety.com报道，内桑森在报告中预测，Netflix的流媒体收视量占美国电视收视量的比例将不断上升，到2020年会达到14%左右。

问题在于，虽然Netflix争取到了电视观众，但不看Netflix的也大有人在。内桑森的报告称，收视总量减少了3%。Variety.com的报道显示，内桑森在报告中写道：“目前Netflix是电视行业的肉中刺，但未必会成为致命因素。”

Netflix在美国市场已经很火。加拿大皇家银行资本市场分析师马克•马哈尼的调查显示，53%的受访者目前都在用Netflix，超过了YouTube（46%）和亚马逊（27%）。在线投资银行FBR分析师巴顿•克罗基特在报告中指出：“如果美国市场接近饱和，用户增速就有可能放缓。另一风险是其他流媒体视频点播服务商带来的竞争，包括亚马逊Prime和Hulu，后者也采用订阅模式对外提供服务。”

乐观者的依据是Netflix在美国以外的成长潜力，但这个因素已经体现在了估值之中。举例来说，克罗基特估算，该公司美国流媒体业务的价值约为每股25美元，比当前股价的四分之一略高一些。剩下约72美元的价值来自国际业务，还有很小一部分来自DVD订阅和原创业务。

但Netflix的海外发展之路可能困难重重。以日本为例，马哈尼的调查表明，只有1%的日本受访者使用Netflix的服务，而YouTube、Nico Nico和GYAO!三家视频网站所占的比例分别为39%、18%和13%。实际上，就连谷歌的流媒体业务Google Play在日本的排名都高于Netflix。

这听起来也许像个机会，但高达57%的日本受访者都表示，他们“根本不可能”把钱花在流媒体内容上，这个比例几乎是美国的三倍。同时，只有6%的日本用户表示不太可能停止使用Netflix的服务，在美国，这个数字则接近75%。

如果股价已经体现出了这些风险，所有这些对投资者来说也许还好。但情况显然不是这样。就算把3月7日的跌幅考虑在内，Netflix的2017年预测市盈率仍接近370倍。要让估值显得合理，该公司的利润就得翻两番。如果净利润未能大幅上升，投资者或许就会把Netflix抛诸脑后。（财富中文网）

译者：Charlie

校对：詹妮

Netflix investors may feel like they are on an emotional rollercoaster similar to watching the streaming cable service’s series Jessica Jones.

The stock is up 65% in the past year. But it’s off more than a quarter since early December. Hold on. It’s up 17% since its February lows, and today, shares are down almost 6% to just under $96, making it, as of mid-day, the worst-performing stock in the S&P 500.

Shares of Netflixare volatile for good reason: The company is hard to predict. It doesn’t have a true publicly traded competitor (so comparisons are difficult), and it’s in a business that is rapidly changing. Analysts estimate the stock is currently worth anywhere from $85 a share to $155. One analyst even believes it could reach $200 a share by 2019. Small wonder investors are along for the ride.

Last week Netflix investors got some good news, or so it seemed. Industry specialist Michael Nathanson of MoffettNathanson said that Netflix accounted for about half the overall drop in TV viewing in the U.S. in 2015. In the report, Nathanson predicted Netflix’s total streaming hours as a percentage of TV viewing will continue to rise to about 14% by 2020,according to a story in Variety.

The trouble is that while Netflix cut into American TV viewing, it wasn’t by a whole lot. Overall, viewing dropped 3%, the report says. “Currently, Netflix is a source of industry pain, but not necessarily a cause of industry death,” he wrote in the note, according to Variety.

Netflix has already flooded the U.S. market. According to a survey conducted by RBC Capital analyst Mark Mahaney, 53% of respondents now use Netflix, more than YouTube (46%) and Amazon (27%). “Slowing subscriber growth is possible if the U.S. market nears saturation,” said FBR analyst Barton Crockett in a note. “Another risk is competition from other streaming VOD providers, including Amazon Prime and Hulu, which also offer services with subscription-based models.”

Bulls point to Netflix’s growth potential outside of the U.S., but this opportunity is reflected in the stock’s valuation. For example, Crockett says the U.S. streaming service is worth about $25 a share, or a little more than a quarter of the company’s current stock prices. The remaining value, or roughly $72 a share, comes from the international business (another small bit comes from DVD subscriptions and Netflix’s original business).

But that growth abroad is fraught with potential pitfalls. In Japan, for example, only 1% of the respondents of Mahaney’s survey use the company’s services, compared to 39% for YouTube, 18% for Nico Nico, 13% for GYAO!. In fact, even Google Play, the search engine’s also-run streaming service, ranked higher than Netflix in Japan.

That might sound like an opportunity, but a whopping 57% of the respondents said they were “not at all likely” to pay for streaming content, almost three times as many as in the U.S. At the same time, just 6% said they were not likely to cancel, compared to nearly three-quarters of Netflix’s U.S. users.

All of this might be OK for investors if these risks were price into the company’s shares. But it doesn’t appear to be. Even after today’s drop the stock trades at a nearly 370 times next year’s earnings. Earnings are expected to quadruple next year, so that valuation may make sense. But if Netflix’s bottom line doesn’t soar, investors may tune the company out.