中国经济开局并非一片黯淡

2016年开年以来对中国经济的恐慌或许正在缓解。

上周末公布的一系列经济数据给中国这个全球第二大经济体带来了一些希望。与此同时，上周五人民币兑美元创一年新高，2月份中国的资本外流也明显放缓。

这些数据并不出色，但也不是很糟糕。今年前两个月中国社会消费品零售额同比上升10.2%，稍低于预期。5.4%的工业产值增长率也没有达到预期。不过，占中国GDP 15%的房地产行业在2015年的淡季过后再次开始发力。住宅销量增速达到2013年春季以来的最高水平，房地产投资也出现了一年半以来的首次正增长。

整体来看，中国经济似乎比几个月前更加稳定。中国央行甚至可以笑看做空人民币的投机者损失数亿美元的消息了。

上周末公布这些经济数据时，十二届人大第四次会议已接近尾声。政府官员都信心满满，以胜利者的姿态宣布经济已经止住下滑态势。然而，这些与悲观者看法相反的胜利口号看来只在短期内有效。

新任证监会主席刘士余表示，今后面临市场失灵时，仍然会果断出手。新股审核制也不会发生变化，这符合到目前为止的预期。对改革派来说，这两方面的表态均让他们感到失望。

此外，对于受到沉重打击的非主要城市房地产市场，中国政府正在设法予以提振。住建部最近介绍了四川省某市在不到一年时间里消化房地产库存的经验，途径是补贴农民工购房（减税，降低首付比例）以及降低门槛，让农民工有资格享受社会福利，包括解决子女上学问题。

研究人士越发一致地认为，短期来看中国经济已经企稳。中国央行还在上周末表示，如果经济仍未进入稳定状态，央行将保持警惕并实施宽松货币政策，以便进一步为经济提供数十亿美元的资金支持。

不过，对于实施经济稳定方案必然提高负债水平的问题，中国政府说的不多。他们表示，这是今后的问题。

就目前而言，中国经济有望已成功避开了危机。（财富中文网）

译者：Charlie

校对：詹妮

The panic over China’s economy so far this year might be waning.

Taken together with the Friday news of the renminbi hitting a year-high against the U.S. dollar and capital outflows slowing way down in February, the host of economic figures China released over the weekend offers some hope for the world’s second-largest economy.

The economic figures weren’t great, but neither were they terrible. Retails sales for the months January and February grew at 10.2% year-over-year, slightly below estimates. Industrial production growth of 5.4% also missed estimates. However, real estate, responsible for 15% of the country’s GDP, is humming again after a slow 2015. Housing sales grew the fastest since spring 2013 and property investment growth experienced the first positive growth in half a year.

Put it all together and you have an economy that appears to be on steadier ground than it was a couple of months ago. Chinese central bankers can even delight in the news speculators are losinghundreds of millions on bearish currency bets.

The economic releases came over the weekend as Communist Party officials finish a week and a half of government meetings in Beijing. Officials sounded assured and victorious that the carnage has stopped.

But the victories they claimed over pessimists appear short-term.

The new stock market regulator said the country would continue intervening in the stock market to prop up prices when necessary. The IPO system requiring government approval for every listing wouldn’t change either, as had been expected by now. Both statements were disappointing for reformers.

Separately, the government is propping up the real estate market in hard-hit smaller cities. The Ministry of Housing explained recently how a city in Sichuan province reduced its housing inventory in less than a year by subsidizing home purchases by migrant workers (lower taxes, lower down payments) and loosening the requirements on those workers to qualify for social benefits including their children’s’ education.

There’s more consensus among researchers that the economy has stabilized for the short-term. And if it hasn’t, the central bank said this weekend it will stay vigilant with loose monetary policy to pump in billions more dollars of support.

But the government didn’t talk much about the rising debt level needed to support its stabilizing plans. That’s a problem for later, they signaled.

For now, there’s hope that crisis has been averted.