IMF错判了中国经济形势

在中国商品出口额上月突然暴跌的背景下，国际贸币基金组织（IMF）副总裁大卫•利普顿近日警告道，下个月的全球经济增长率很有可能将跌落到目前3.5%的预期值以下。近来，中国商品出口额相比去年同期出现了高达25.4%的惊人降幅。出口大幅下降，加上一个月前沪深两市的抛售狂潮，使得很多人又开始担心，中国“世界工厂”的地位是否将要不保了。

这一连串坏消息带来的一个重要隐忧，就是中国的经济衰退是否会给其最重要的贸易伙伴——美国带来连锁反应。这些担忧其实有些过度了。首当其冲会受到中国经济局势影响的主要是亚洲国家，而美国和欧洲所遭受的影响相对来说应该是很小的。

之所以说欧美国家暂时没有必要过于担心中国经济问题，首先是因为中国和欧美国家不同，它仍然有大量的经济潜力。在中国经济由高速发展向稳健发展转型的过程中，无论当前出现何种问题，中国都有充裕的资源来解决。

相比来看，欧洲各国央行和美联储早就将利率下调至接近为零的水平，并且已经采取了多次量化宽松政策，而中国还有满手可用的牌没有打出来。就连最近把对中国的展望由“稳定”下调为“负面”的穆迪（Moody），也继续对中国给出了Aaa3的信用评级。

况且，相比普遍背负沉重赤字的西方国家，中国的预算赤字只有3%左右。中国还有大量的现金储备，而且如果它想提高出口和促进就业，它可以轻易地使人民币贬值10%。

与重视利润以及正在倾力与全球化的负面影响作斗争的西方国家不同，中国目前的第一要务是要确保国内社会的稳定。为了维护稳定，它甚至愿意承受一定损失。至少从目前看来，中国是拥有充裕的资源可以这样做的。光凭IMF副总裁的警告，并不能判断中国的经济问题是否会导致一次全球性的危机，但它的确说明，真正的改变已经发生了，而且这些改变显然会对商业环境产生影响。

中国目前在全球出口市场上大约占到了10%的份额，在全球进口市场上的份额约为8%。就算中国的出口额显著下跌，还可以靠世界上剩下的那90%来顶上。和出口相比，今年2月中国的进口额仅下跌了13.8%，而且跌幅还有一部分是由全球商品价格的下跌而导致的，特别是石油价格。可以预计，受中国进口额下跌影响最大的，应该是亚洲国家以及澳大利亚、中东等大宗商品出口国。

此外，中国对奢侈商品的进口可能也会下降。不过，美国和西欧国家的企业所受的影响预计将是最小的。虽然目前难以给出一个精确的数字，但这种影响可能不超过半个百分点。

这些都表明，在中国着手进行它急需的改革的过程中，中国还是有相当大的喘息空间的。中国当前首当其冲的问题是要摆脱对基建建设的过度依赖。基建项目虽然能促进就业，却带来不了多少可量化的经济回报。中国对房地产业不切实际的投资虽然保证了一定的就业率，但也催生出了数百座无人居住的“鬼城”，它们最终的命运可能就是大建之后的大拆。

未来一两年，中国还将需要对一批由于政治原因而提供支持，但几乎不产生任何投资回报的部分地方政府、行政部门和国有企业进行“断奶”。

与此同时，像影子银行以及一些目前不受监管的金融机构和金融工具也需要被纳入管控范围。而且如果中国要想恢复投资者的信心，就必须要提高金融系统的透明度。

中国的消费型经济的日益增长，已经催生出了一个极具吸引力的市场，它将确保中国经济至少能以每年4%至5%的速度增长。这虽然低于政府制定的6.5%到7%的预期，但它也比欧美发达国家的预期增长率高出一倍以上。无论是IMF的评估，还是任何针对中国经济下滑问题的分析，都说明经济环境已经发生了变化。最主要的区别是，在以前中国经济以两位数高速增长的那些日子里，几乎任何一家在中国的企业都能轻易盈利，而现在，在中国运营的企业则需要更细致的战略和更好的分析。虽然全球性的经济下滑不太可能出现，但规则毕竟已经改变了。

本文作者努诺•费尔南德斯是瑞士IMD商学院的战略金融项目主任。

译者：朴成奎

The sudden slump in Chinese exports last month prompted IMF deputy chief David Lipton to warnnext month’s projections for global growth will very likely drop below the current prediction of 3.5%.Chinese exports declined by an astonishing 25.4%compared to the same period a year earlier. The unexpectedly sharp fall combined with a dramatic sell-off on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges a month earlier sparked new concerns that China’s role as “factory to the world” is beginning to go off the rails.

An important concern raised by the flood of bad news was whether China’s economic woes might be enough to trigger a new recession in the United States, which still ranks as China’s most important trading partner. Those fears are overblown. The most immediate effects of the slowdown will be felt in Asia. The impact on the U.S. and Europe is expected to be minimal.

One reason for not being overly concerned is that in contrast to Europe and the U.S., China still has plenty of economic firepower. It has more than enough resources to deal with any immediate problems resulting from the difficult transition to amore sustainable growth rate. While central banks in Europe and the Federal Reserve in the U.S. long ago reduced interest rates to near zero and engaged in multiple bouts of quantitative easing, China still has numerous options that it can ball back on. EvenMoody, which recently downgraded China’s outlook from “stable” to “negative”, continues to give China an Aaa3 credit rating.

In contrast to Western countries running huge deficits, China’s budget deficit is only around 3%. It has enormous cash reserves, and if it wants to increase exports and boost employment, it can easily devalue the renminbi by as much as 10%. In contrast to the West, which emphasizes profit and is desperately trying to cope with the downside of globalization, China’s top priority is to head off civil unrest, and safeguard its fragile social fabric. It is willing to operate at a loss in order to maintain stability, and at least for the moment, it has more than enough resources to do that. While the IMF’s reassessment may be unwarranted in bringing extrapolated fears on whether or not China may cause a global crisis, it does signal that very real changes are taking place. And these changes have a clear impact on the business environment.

China currently accounts for roughly 10% of the world’s exports and 8% of its global imports. Even if China were to drop out completely, 90% of the world’s commerce would still be there to pick up the slack. In contrast to exports, the dollar amount of China’s imports in February dropped by only 13.8%, and part of that decline was due to a global fall in commodity prices, especially oil. The expectation is that a decrease in Chinese imports will probably have the greatest impact in Asia, and among exporters of commodities, particularly Australia and the Middle East. Luxury goods may also experience a drop off. The impact on companies in the U.S. and Western Europe is expected to be minimal. Although it is difficult to come up with a precise figure the actual impact is likely to be less than a half percent.

All this means that China still has considerable breathing space to institute badly needed reforms. Chief among these is a transition from an over reliance on infrastructure projects which create jobs, but produce little in the way of quantifiable financial returns. Unrealistic investments in real estate have managed to keep some of the population working, but it has also resulted in hundreds of uninhabited “ghost cities” that may eventually be headed for the demolition heap. In the next year or so, China will need to wean off the regional governments, municipal administrations and non-productive state-owned companies that are currently supported for political reasons, but which produce little or no return on investment. Shadow banking, financial institutions and instruments that have gone unregulated, also needs to be brought under control, and the financial system will have to become much less opaque if investor confidence is to be restored.

China’s growing consumer economy has created an attractive market, which will ensure that China’s economic growth is at least between 4%and 5% a year. That is lower than Beijing’s current target of 6.5% to 7% but it is still more than double the projected growth in more mature economies such as the U.S. or Europe. The IMF reassessment and any analysis on downturn in China simply are indicators that the environment has changed. The major difference is that from now on, business in China will require a more nuanced strategy and better analysis than the heady days of double digit growth, when almost any enterprise could easily turn a profit. Though a global slowdown in unlikely, the rules have changed.

Nuno Fernandes is director of the strategic finance program at IMD business school in Switzerland.