中国企业招聘规模大幅度下降

数据分析机构CBB的一项调查显示，今年第一季度中国企业的资本支出降到了至少五年来的最低点。这充分表明，虽然政府出台了各项政策防止经济剧烈滑坡，但中国经济依然表现乏力。

CBB的这项季度性调查覆盖2200多家公司。调查结果还表明，企业的招聘规模下降。随着公司管理层压缩借贷和支出，就业连续第二个季度面临下行压力。

调查中只有33%的公司一季度资本支出上升，也是此项调查开展五年来的最低水平。

2014年第二季度以来，资本支出上升的受访公司所占的比例已经下降了40%以上。

但调查表明，由于收入稳定增长，今年一季度公司利润高于上季度的低点。

利兰德•米勒和谢赫扎德•卡齐在调查报告中写道：“今年一季度中国经济是否再次整体下滑还不明朗。但政策方面的挑战有所增加，因此中国政府或许会认为经济更疲弱。”

多年来，经济学家一直对中国的官方数据表示怀疑。为更好地把握中国这个全球第二大经济体的风吹草动，他们转向参考CBB等民间机构的调查结果以及水泥、钢铁产量或发电量等指标。

上周，国务院副总理张高丽在一个高层经济论坛上表示，截至3月初的数据表明中国经济正在好转。

CBB的调查结果显示，今年前两个月中国工业产值增速降至2008年以来的最低点，进出口规模继续下降，只有固定资产投资增长率超过了预期，原因是房地产投资速度加快。

调查表明，一季度员工人数增加的公司仅占23%，是2012年CBB首次进行此项调查时的一半。

调查报告指出：“2009-2010年的过度增长过后，借贷和支出水平下降是不可避免的。招人规模下降的问题则要尖锐得多。”

CBB调查发现中国企业发展压力渐增，这也与路透社上周的分析不谋而合，路透社称由于客户的付款周期变长，中国公司的流动性处于10年来最紧张的状态。部分企业为了维持经营被迫寻求成本更高、安全性更低的资金。

国务院总理李克强上周四表示，今年前两个月国内就业保持稳定，调查失业率约为5.1%。但外界普遍认为，中国的实际失业率要高得多。

2015年中国经济增长率为6.9%，降至25年来的最低点。今年中国政府设定的增长目标为6.5%-7%。

虽然更倾向于通过增加财政支出和减税来促进经济增长，以及减轻结构性改革的阵痛，但中国政府也表示，今年将采取更灵活的货币政策。（财富中文网）

译者：Charlie

审校：夏林

Capital expenditure by Chinese companies fell to the lowest in at least five years in the first quarter, a private survey showed, highlighting persistent weakness in the economy even as the government ratchets up policy support to head off a sharper slowdown.

The quarterly survey of over 2,200 firms by China Beige Book International (CBB) also showed less hiring by companies, marking the second consecutive quarter of downward pressure on employment as executives scale back borrowing and spending.

Only 33% of firms reported capital expenditure growth in the first quarter, the lowest in the survey’s five-year history.

The share of firms reporting capex growth has fallen by over 40% since the second quarter of 2014.

However, profits in the first quarter improved from the previous quarter’s lows as revenue growth steadied, the survey showed.

“It’s unclear whether the economy as a whole weakened again in the first quarter. But policy challenges appear to have grown, and Beijing therefore may perceive the economy as weaker,” survey report authors Leland Miller and Shehzad Qazi wrote.

Economists have questioned China’s official statistics for years and turn to private surveys such as the CBB and measures such as concrete, steel or electricity production to better gauge changes in the world’s second-largest economy.

Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli told a high-level economic forum last week that recent data through early March showed that the economy is improving.

The latest reported data showed factory output in January and February grew at its weakest pace since 2008, while exports and imports continued to shrink, although fixed-asset investment growth beat expectations due to quickening property investment.

The survey showed just 23% of firms expanded their workforces in the first quarter, falling to half of what CCB reported in its inaugural report back in 2012.

“Less borrowing and spending was necessary after the 2009-10 excesses. Less hiring is a much more pointed problem,” it said.

The survey’s findings of growing strains on corporate China echo those of a Reuters analysis last week, which showed Chinese companies are facing their tightest liquidity crunch in a decade as customers take longer to pay their bills, forcing some into more costly and less secure borrowing to stay afloat.

Premier Li Keqiang said on Thursday that China’s employment was stable in the first two months of 2016, with a survey-based jobless rate at about 5.1%, though the real jobless rate is widely believed to be much higher.

The government has set a growth target of 6.5% to 7% for 2016, after the economy expanded 6.9% in 2015—the slowest pace in 25 years.

Beijing has pledged to make monetary policy more flexible this year even as it leans more on increased fiscal spending and tax cuts to support economic growth and cushion the pain from structural reforms.