2020年美国将超越中国成制造第一强国

今年美国总统竞选的关键话题之一是美国工业的竞争力，尽管唐纳德•特朗普和伯尼•桑德斯经常使用丰富多彩的语言来表达其观点：美国已经丧失经济优势。

两位候选人极为蔑视最近达成的贸易协定。他们认为，这些协定表明美国无法与中国或越南等国家竞争，后者的劳动力成本要低很多，同时也缺乏往往会给企业带来沉重负担的环境法规。

不过，如果你去问问真正的制造业高管，你就会发现他们对美国的未来要比这些政客乐观得多。根据德勤公司与美国竞争力委员会联合发布的2016年度《全球制造业竞争力指数》，美国制造业的竞争力高居全球第二位，仅次于中国。此外，全球制造业高管预计，到2020年，美国将成为全球制造业竞争力最强的经济体。

A key theme in this year’s presidential race is competitiveness of American industry, though candidates like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders tend to use more colorful language when describing their belief that the United States has lost its economic edge.

Both candidates despise recent trade deals, which they feel have proven that the U.S. can’t compete with countries like China and Vietnam, which have far cheaper labor and less onerous environmental regulations.

But if you ask actual manufacturing executives, they’re far more bullish on America’s future than many of its political leaders. On Thursday, professional services firm Deloitte teamed up with the Council on Competitiveness to release its 2016 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index, showing that the United States is the second most competitive manufacturing economy after China. What’s more, global manufacturing executives predict that by 2020, the United States will be the most competitive manufacturing economy in the world.

美国排名持续飙升的原因在于，廉价劳动力对制造商成本的影响早已不复当初。20世纪90年代，中国制造业的工人数量达到顶峰，之后开始下滑。随着制造业对工人的需求不断减少，一国制造业取得成功的重要因素就变为，它能否获得先进的技术和原材料，知识产权的保护措施是否完备等等。在这些方面，美国都要胜过中国。

这不是说对制造业就业率下滑感到焦虑就是杞人忧天。尽管制造类企业认为，美国是做生意的好地方，但他们在美国取得成功并不意味着，他们能如同半个世纪以前那样，提供大量薪水丰厚的工作岗位。

在整整一代人的时间里，大多数工人的薪酬一直停滞不前。对于大部分没有大学文凭的美国人而言，机遇正在不断减少。因此，把糟糕的制造业就业情况看作一种可以被矫正的政治错误，是很自然的事情。然而，在过去20年里，中国丧失的制造业工作岗位其实比美国更多。这一事实有力地表明，对中国强硬完全无助于提高美国的就业率。

就如同农业等众多行业曾经的经历一样，制造业就业率的下滑是一种再自然不过的经济过程，而不是政治错误。随着各个经济部门更加擅长它们所做的事情，它们需要的劳动力往往会变得越来越少。

所以，尽管我们可以理解总统候选人对制造业境况的关心，但那些声称自己能提高制造业就业率的人，要么是不了解他们所谈论的领域，要么就是在说假话。事实上，美国的政客们应该赞美那些愿意在美国经商的制造业高管，即便他们拯救不了苦苦挣扎的美国工人。（财富中文网）

译者：严匡正

审校：任文科

So why has the United States been shooting up the ranks? Long gone are the days when cheap labor was the most important input for manufacturers. Total manufacturing employment in China peaked during the 1990s and has been falling ever since. And as manufacturing continues to reduce the number of workers needed, the important ingredients to success in the sector are whether advanced technologies and materials are available, and whether or not intellectual property protections are strong. The United States beats out China on both of these scores.

This is not to say that anxiety over the decline of manufacturing employment is misguided. While it’s good that manufacturing firms think that the United States is a great place to do business, their success in America will not have the same impact, in terms of providing a huge number of well-paying jobs, as they did a half-century ago.

Pay for most workers has been stagnant for a generation, and opportunities for the majority of Americans without a college degree are shrinking. It’s natural to look at the phenomenon of declining manufacturing employment as a political failure that can be rectified. But the fact that China has lost more manufacturing jobs than the U.S. over the past 20 years is a strong indication that playing hardball with the Chinese isn’t going to do anything to increase employment in the United States.

Rather than a political failure, the decline of manufacturing employment is a natural economic process that many industries, like agriculture, have gone through in past eras. As sectors become better at what they do, they often require fewer people to get the work done.

So while it’s understandable the state of manufacturing is of concern to presidential candidates, those who say they can bring back lost jobs in the sector either don’t know what they are talking about, or are being disingenuous. Instead, American politicians should be lauding the fact that manufacturing executives want to do business here, even if that fact won’t save the struggling American worker.