老掉牙技术不会消亡的三个原因

过去几年，在流媒体音乐、智能手机和电子书的围剿之下，黑胶唱片、模拟相机和纸质书这些“过时的”科技，居然艰难地生存了下来。为什么？为什么在层出不穷的科技创新面前，“老掉牙的科技”为上面仍然能对人们产生着一定的吸引力？

《纽约时报》专栏作家尼克•比尔顿撰文阐述了其中的道理。

这些老技术十分笨重和不便，但它们却得以幸存下来，甚至出现了一定程度的复兴，这主要归功于三种力量的推动。其中既有情感和美学上的原因，也有完全出于实用性的考虑。

比如说，一些读者之所以仍然坚持阅读纸质的报刊和书籍，完全就是由于熟悉感。但是这个因素目前已经很弱了，而且还在继续减退，对于报纸来说尤其如此，目前仍然在坚守纸媒的人，主要是老年消费者群体。报刊发行量占总人口的比重逐年稳步下跌，从1945年的35%跌至2014年的15%以下。

对于老的科技企业来说，一个更加利好的消息则是消费者的怀旧心态。有些产品刚走红的时候，很多消费者甚至根本没摸过它。为了触摸更加真实的过去，许多千禧一代纷纷迷上了黑胶唱片，以至于就连松下这样的大品牌也重新推出多张经典唱片。出于同样的原因，就连卡带式录音机也仍然拥有大量拥趸。此外还有不少文艺青年重新鼓捣起了胶片相机。尤其是富士Instax这样的“拍立得”相机，也在千禧一代中相当有人气。

比尔顿还指出，有些老式技术之所以仍然焕发着吸引力，最有趣的一个原因就是它们的安全性。比如名人一般都很害怕各种“流出”和各种不光彩的“门”事件，因此，他们有强烈的动机用线下格式来保存他们的照片。随着美国人对网络安全风险的意识越来越强，并且注意到这种安全既可能来自黑客，也可能来自他们自己的政府，因此，把照片从网上搬到网下的潮流，很可能会进一步扩大。（财富中文网）

译者：朴成奎

审校：任文科

In the past few years, it’s become clear that old technologies like vinyl records, analog cameras, and print books are managing to hang on in the world of streaming music, smartphones, and ebooks. Writing in the New York Times, columnist Nick Bilton has unpacked some of the forces that give those standbys continuing appeal in the face of relentless innovation.

Bilton describes three forces feeding the survival, and even resurgence, of formats that can seem inconvenient or unwieldy compared to their newer competition. Some of them are emotional and aesthetic, while others are relentlessly practical.

Familiarity, for example, keeps some readers attached to things like print newspapers and books. But, particularly in the case of newspapers, that’s a weak and fading motivation, mostly confined to older consumers. Daily newspaper circulation as a percentage of population has steadily declined, from 35% in 1945 to less than 15% in 2014.

More promising for businesses is the pull of nostalgia, which can attract users who never touched a particular technology when it was new. The desire to connect with a past that’s seen as more authentic has drawn millennials to vinyl records in droves, leading, for instance, to the re-release of classic turntables by major brands like Panasonic. Even cassettes still have their adherents for similar reasons, and there’s a sizable movement back to film cameras, particularly easy-to-use instant cameraslike the Fuji Instax, which are huge with millennials.

Bilton also cites a few very practical reasons older tech can remain appealing, the most interesting of which is security. Celebrities nervous about leaks, for instance, have serious motivation to keep photos in analog, offline formats. With Americans increasingly conscious of cybersecurity risks from both hackers and their own government, that motivation seems likely to spread.