苹果面临三大威胁：中国居首

尽管iPhone销量疲软令很多人感到担心，但苹果仍然保持着全美股市最有价值公司的地位。

不过在瑞银分析师史蒂夫•米伦诺维奇看来，苹果公司面临着三个有可能“改变游戏格局”的重大威胁，它们甚至有可能将苹果掀下全球最盈利公司的宝座。这三大威胁可以简称为“3C”，分别是中国（China）、聊天机器人（chat bots）和廉价手机（cheap phones）。

“当前围绕苹果的主要争议是，iPhone的升级基本上只是着眼于添加一些边缘性的新功能，并且拉长升级周期。”米伦诺维奇在周三的一份简短的报告中写道：“可以说这是一个高级问题，因为问题的重点在于升级的时间，而不是来自苹果生态系统以外的挑战。”

据分析师们预测，今年iPhone手机的销量可能逊于去年的2.31亿台。而像苹果手表和苹果电视这样的新产品目前的销量还不能算是彻底打开了局面。

米伦诺维奇认为，除了iPhone销量疲软，苹果公司还面临着更为严重的三大威胁，其中以中国居首。过去几年，苹果之所以实现了令人瞠目的迅猛增长，一个重要因素是中国最大的移动运营商——中国移动终于同意销售iPhone。

米伦诺维奇指出：“在企业计算领域，随着联想和华为等中国国产品牌的成熟，IBM、惠普和思科等国际品牌在中国市场上的销量遭遇了下滑。如果中国政府在手机领域也同样偏向国产供应商，就有可能给苹果造成严重威胁。”

第二大威胁则是聊天机器人对苹果应用商店业务的挑战。在Facebook的聊天机器人本周正式发布后，这一技术立即成为人们关注的焦点，风头一时无两。要知道，市值高达500亿美元的Facebook在替苹果拉拢和保留用户方面也扮演了极为重要的角色。目前像FB这样的即时通讯应用正在逐渐包含所谓的“机器人应用”的功能。也就是说，它充当了一个自动化的数字助手，能够帮你摘取信息、完成电子交易，甚至预订出租车等等。

米伦诺维奇表示：“目前这种所谓的‘机器人’程序，也就是用来将任务自动化的软件程序，主要寄居在即时通讯软件里（也就是‘应用内应用’）。Facebook还刚刚发布了能让企业与消费者进行互动的聊天机器人平台Messenger Bot Store。那么，苹果的App Store会因此损失份额吗？”

第三大威胁，则是人们早就预测过，但到目前为止还从未实现过的“黑童话”——消费者将放弃对苹果的忠心，转投已经变得“足够好”的廉价机海。

米伦诺维奇也提到了廉价手机的威胁，但他似乎并不非常担心这一幕会真的发生。

“也有一些相反的观点认为，苹果的销售对象主要是具有品牌意识的消费者，而不是企业。而且苹果也通过产品整合和品牌的生态系统建设保持了充分的差异化。即便考虑到了计算硬件商品化的历史，仍然有一些看好苹果的人认为，苹果是历史的一个例外。”

本周三上午，苹果股价上浮了1个百分点。年初至今，苹果股价已经上涨了6%，高于标普500指数的2%的涨幅。（财富中文网）

译者：朴成奎

Apple remains the most valuable company on the stock market despite concerns about slowing iPhone sales.

But UBS analyst Steven Milunovich sees three far more serious issues on the horizon that could actually “change the game” and take the world’s most profitable company down. Call it the three C’s of the apocalypse: China, chat bots and cheap phones.

“The main Apple debate today is about iPhone upgrades based on marginal new features and lengthening of the upgrade cycle,” Milunovich wrote in a short report on Wednesday. “This is a high-class problem in that the issue is timing of upgrades rather than challenges from outside the ecosystem.”

Analysts expect Apple’s iPhone sales will drop somewhat below the 231 million devices it sold last year and newer products like the Apple Watch and Apple TV have yet to gain enough sales to make up the difference.

But the more important issues for Applestart with China, according to Milunovich. Apple’s astounding growth the past few years was fueled by growth in China after the country’s largest mobile carrier, China Mobile, finally agreed to sell the iPhone.

“A more serious issue would be if the government were to favor domestic suppliers as we have seen in enterprise computing,” Milunovich writes. “IBM, HP, and Cisco have suffered declining sales in China as domestic champions like Lenovo and Huawei mature.”

The second issue, hitting maximum hype currently thanks to Facebook’s announcements this week, is the danger of chat bots to Apple’s app store business. The $50 billion business has been critical in helping Apple attract and retain iPhone customers, Milunovich said. But messaging apps are increasingly incorporating the functions of apps via so-called bots, automated digital helpers that can pull up information, complete commerce transactions, and order a taxi.

“Bots—software that automates tasks—mostly reside in messaging apps (apps within apps),” the analyst noted. “Facebook just announced the Messenger Bot Store, a bot platform that allows businesses to interact with consumers. Could the App Store lose share?”

Finally, the Apple boogeyman that has long been predicted and never come to pass—the threat that consumers will drop their allegiance to the iPhone and switch to cheap smartphones that have become “good enough.”

Milunovich mentions the cheap phone threat, though he sounds less than convinced it is about to come to pass.

“Counter arguments are that Apple sells to brand-conscious consumers rather than to businesses and it has maintained sufficient differentiation through product integration and the ecosystem,” he writes. “Still, given the history of hardware commoditization, bulls are taking the position that Apple is an exception to history.”

Shares of Apple were up 1% on Wednesday morning. The shares have gained 6% so far this year, outpacing the 2% rise in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.