中国上季经济增长创近年新低

经济学家称，中国一季度的增速创金融危机以来的新低。这表明，虽然中国经济近期出现了短期的企稳迹象，但这一世界第二大经济体仍面临着下行压力。

路透社最近对64名经济学家的调查显示，第一季度GDP增速也有可能降至6.7%，与去年同期持平，但低于2015年第四季度的6.8%。

这是2009年一季度以来最为疲软的经济增长。当时，经济增速跌到了6.2%。中国经济在2015年增长了6.9%，创20多年以来的新低。

一季度的年增速预测范围为5.8%到7.2%，中间值为6.7%。

充满希望的迹象

尽管不均衡的全球需求正在下行，多个关键领域出现了过度投资，且国有企业疲弱的生产效率仍不见起色，但近期房地产市场和工业的短暂抬头为乐观主义提供了一些依据。

1月和2月，固定资产投资年增速提升至10.2%，而2015年全年为10%。这两个月的工业利润出人意料地较去年同期增长了4.8%，结束了连续7个月的负增长。

在这两个月中——中国将其数据进行了整合以应对春节长假的日期调整——工业利润出人意料地较去年同期增长了4.8%，结束了连续7个月的负增长。

近期其他的指标，包括工厂采购经理人指数和中国生产价格指数，也释放出了一些经济初步企稳的信号。

香港野村证券首席中国经济师Yang Zhao说：“第一季度，我们看到部分实体经济在3月出现了企稳迹象，而地产投资也在1、2月出现了反弹，因此这说明实体经济活动似乎略有起色。”

他说：“但是，第一季度金融领域的贡献，会出现大幅倒退。这也是为什么我们认为整个GDP将在去年第四季度的基础上继续下滑的原因。”

分析师称，尽管经济出现了一些复苏迹象，而且CPI也有所上涨，但央行有可能会为了实现货币供应和增长目标来调整货币政策，同时帮助负债累累的工业企业为其昂贵的债务再融资。

香港渣打银行大中华地区经济研究负责人Ding Shuang说：“CPI增幅已经超过了一年期存款利率，这意味着减息空间受到了限制。”

他说：“然而，银行要求继续降低储备金比率，因为这与今年实现13%的货币供应增长目标息息相关。”

自2014年年底以来，中国的银行一直在奉行长期的宽松政策，并于最近通过2月29日的准备金比例下调释放了约1000亿美元的贷款。决策者们也已表示，他们打算在2016年增加对经济的财政支持，并将财政赤字调高至GDP的3%。

月度指标

中国于4月15日公布一系列月度指标和GDP数据，分析师们则将寻找短期经济改善的其他证据。

工业产值3月的同比增长可能会达到5.9%，较2月的5.4%略有上升，而中国经济的关键引擎——城市固定资产投资——有可能在一季度达到10.3%的整体增幅，而1月和2月均为10.2%。

3月，零售额年度同比增长为10.4%，较2月的10.2%有小幅攀升。

译者：冯丰

审校：詹妮

Economists say that China grew at its slowest pace since the financial crisis in the first quarter, highlighting continued downward pressure on the world’s second largest economy despite some tentative recent signs of stabilization.

Growth in first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) likely slowed to 6.7% from the same period last year, down from 6.8% in the fourth quarter of 2015, according to a Reuters poll of 64 economists.

That would be the weakest pace of expansion since the first quarter of 2009, when growth fell to 6.2%. China’s economy grew 6.9% in 2015, its slowest rate in more than two decades.

Forecasts for annual growth in the first quarter ranged from 5.8% to 7.2%, with a median of 6.7%.

Hopeful Signs

While downdrafts from uneven global demand, over-investment in several key sectors and weakening productivity among state-owned firms remain, recent signs of a tentative pick-up in real estate and industry provide some reasons for optimism.

Annual growth in fixed asset investment quickened to 10.2% in January and February combined from 10% in the whole of 2015, while industrial profits during those two months unexpectedly rose by 4.8% from a year earlier, ending a seven-month streak of declines.

During those two months—China combined their data to account for the shifting dates for the long Lunar New Year holiday—industrial profits unexpectedly rose by 4.8% from a year earlier, ending a seven-month streak of declines.

Other recent indicators including factory purchasing managers’ indexes and China’s producer price index have also hinted at some initial signs of stabilization.

“In Q1, we saw some stabilization in March for the real part of the economy, and property investment also rebounded in January and February, so it shows that the hard core activity seems to have slightly picked up,” said Yang Zhao, chief China economist at Nomura in Hong Kong.

“But in terms of the contribution of financial sector in Q1, it’s going to have significantly retreated. That’s why we think the overall GDP will continue to slow down from the last Q4,” he said.

Analysts said that despite some signs of green shoots and an uptick in consumer price inflation (CPI), the central bank was likely to keep monetary policy accommodative to hit money supply and growth targets, and aid heavily indebted industrial firms to refinance expensive debt.

“CPI inflation is already higher than the one-year deposit rate, meaning the room for additional rate cuts is limited,” said Ding Shuang, head of Greater China economic research at Standard Chartered in Hong Kong.

“But bank required reserve ratio cuts will continue as they will be necessary to achieve the 13% money supply growth target this year,” he said.

China’s bank has been engaged in an extended easing campaign since late 2014, most recently releasing an estimated $100 billion for lending by cutting bank reserve ratios on Feb. 29. Policymakers have also said they intend to ramp up fiscal support for the economy in 2016, boosting the fiscal deficit to 3% of GDP.

Monthly Indicators

A raft of monthly indicators were released with the GDP data on April 15, and analysts are looking for additional evidence of tentative economic improvement.

Industrial output likely grew 5.9% in March from a year earlier, slightly up from February’s 5.4% figure while urban fixed asset investment, a crucial driver of China’s economy, likely accelerated to 10.3% in the first quarter as a whole, from 10.2% in January and February.

Annual retail sales growth was seen at 10.4% in March, rising slightly from the previous month’s 10.2%.