苹果在走下坡路：库克该学学星巴克了

苹果首席执行官蒂姆•库克正带领公司告别过去的辉煌，走上一条截然不同的道路。随着iPhone一路畅销，占据业内主导地位，苹果的股价一路高涨，也攫取了手机市场高得惊人的利润份额。竞争对手们要么大幅亏损，要么获利微薄。苹果市值达到5550亿美元，其中约90%的市值由手机业务贡献。

而今，不少紧追慢赶的对手都在努力从苹果口中抢食。美国政府也盯着库克要解锁iPhone。美国联邦调查局希望获得iPhone的加密数据，协助追查在加州南部城市圣贝纳迪诺犯下枪击凶案的极端分子。库克拒不接受，认为加密才是保护消费者隐私的正当行为。当然，与联邦政府打持久战是所有管理者挥之不去的噩梦。

五年前库克被任命为首席执行官时，苹果的市值为3600亿美元，销售额1080亿美元。如今，该司的营业收入持续增长至2340亿美元，尽管最近股市动荡，其市值仍增加了将近2000亿美元。史蒂夫•乔布斯领导苹果的最后五年里，公司的营业收入暴增五倍，达到1080亿美元，市值在610亿美元的基础上增加了六倍。

库克在任期间，iPhone的市场占有率和全球用户大幅增长，即便乔布斯在世估计也会为发展势头骄傲。不过乔布斯最广为人知的名言是：“成为坟墓里的首富对我而言并不重要。能在晚上睡觉前说一句‘今天我们做了些了不起的事’，这才是我在乎的。”

而苹果现在亟需的就是做出新的“了不起的事”。

其他知名企业的首席执行官也面临类似的艰巨挑战，竭力坚持公司的核心价值，不断创造价值。除了跟美国联邦政府抗争，库克主要精力都放在努力让苹果重拾增长上。

上周，意大利毛衣奢侈品牌创始人布鲁奈罗•库奇内利在旗下公司上市不久后告诉我，新加入的投资者对他说：“给我们增长30%。”库奇内利创立公司不仅仅是为了销售和盈利。他的宗旨是一视同仁地对待本地供应商，给予员工远超市场水平的薪资，确保在商业世界里珍视并强化的“人性”的一面。他自称公司监护人，而不仅是首席执行官，对于提出无理增长要求的新投资者，库奇内利怒目而视。库奇明确告诉他们，10%已经是很可观的增长，任何更高的增长都是在炒作公司。他兑现了承诺，而且他相信现在的选择会为公司指明未来50年乃至更久以后的发展方向。

在2000年短暂“退休”八年后，霍华德•舒尔茨重新执掌星巴克首席执行官的帅印。走马上任后，他让所有星巴克门店关门一天。退休期间，星巴克为了追求销售与盈利增长20%承受了巨大压力。2008年回归管理层后，舒尔茨决定，公司要更强调速度、服务和产品质量。

在致星巴克员工的一份备忘录中，舒尔茨为“星巴克的体验走下坡路”和“品牌的商业化”惋惜。当时，星巴克的同店销售滑坡，消费者排名下滑，舒尔茨坚称要重新强调品质管控和体验，可谓大胆之举。舒尔茨明确了公司的价值观，推动全盘改造、有计划的扩张，促进员工与客户之间有人情味的互动。

舒尔茨二度掌舵以来，星巴克的市值猛增六倍，达到880亿美元。如今的星巴克在大力扩张、树立全球品牌形象、先于同行投资电子会员卡、开辟新的经营时段，增强核心业务实力，表现都超出预期。

美国天然食品零售巨头全食超市的联席执行官约翰•麦基也曾经做过无异于豪赌公司未来的重大决策。他的新计划提出全盘调整，推出产品搭配较少、提供给有限客户服务但价格更低的新品牌，名为“365全食超市”。麦基还出版了一本书，说服美国民众选择接近未经加工的食品，主要选用富含植物蛋白、全麦、豆类、果蔬的饮食。这又是一项有悖大众直觉判断的行动：加工食品历来是传统杂货商的核心盈利源。假如365全食超市获得成功，将转为向美国6000万中等收入家庭提供服务，而不再仅服务于收入最高的2000万家庭。这一转型将推动公司的下一轮发展。

全食超市的销售额已经停滞在140亿美元。麦基希望通过彻底改造让公司迈上增长的新台阶。在有些市场，同店销售额要么持平要么略有下降。为了公司股票的市盈率保持高位，维持上行走势，全食超市要至少实现5%的实际增速。如果不开创二线品牌，全食超市可以选择强行降价，但那么做必定会影响公司价值：公司高于市面平均水平的利润来自高利润的方便食品、售价不菲的滋补品，以及每平方英尺销售场地销售额和净价更高的新鲜食品、鱼类和肉类。全食超市的营业利润是一般食品连锁零售店的三倍，每平方英尺销售场地销售额也能达到一般水平的三倍。

上述企业领袖都对领导所在公司很是满意，也为员工制定了道德准绳。他们相信品牌的地位并不稳定——如逆水行舟不进则退，品牌要发展就得靠不断开创和革新。

史蒂夫•乔布斯有一句名言：“如果今天是生命中最后一天，我还会想做今天要做的事吗？”而后他建议：“不要掉进患得患失的陷阱……一定要遵从内心。”

三星、LG、华为、宏达电子（HTC）都在觊觎苹果的地位。依靠容易预期的慢慢改良再也不能高枕无忧。

对于苹果这种顶着巨大的成功光环又强敌环伺的公司来说，实现可持续增长需要遵循以下严苛的法则：

了解客户没有明说的潜在需求、使用情况，以及不满之处。要了解他们每一次轻声议论，每一次情绪波动背后的真实想法。提供让客户惊喜的解决方案。自身独树一帜是一方面，也要确保吸引用户的关注。

专注于了解对公司最重要的2%用户。他们热爱你的公司并且真心拥护。要对这些铁粉了如指掌，对他们的忠诚表示感谢，回馈奖励。要给他们高调赞美你的理由，然后把身边朋友都拉过来成为用户。

商业活动要冲击视觉感官。消费者都是在用眼睛购物的。他们在转瞬间拿定主意。公司形象不能老旧、平庸又无趣。要知道，商场竞技是不断迭代升级的游戏。今天看来光鲜的店面五年内就会过时又乏味。产品也是如此。假如一款产品十年如一日就会陈腐，市场地位天天下滑。

理解人类学中的“动态分裂症”理论。消费者没有义务保持忠诚，他们会不停地在心里给商家排名。要利用具有独特功效的优秀产品在消费者心目中站稳地位。

股东希望持续获得可以预见的收益，但在越来越动荡的市场，这种期望其实是不切实际的。伟大的公司会根据投资、风险和新情况创造长期价值。惊人的业绩源于大飞跃，而不是日行硅步。

库克先生，你有很多粉丝和支持者。今年秋天是时候让铁粉们惊喜一下了，新一代手机要成为爆款，亮眼的大杀器，横扫全球的街机之王。（财富中文网）

作者Michael J. Silverstein是全球顶级商业战略咨询机构波士顿咨询公司（BCG）位于芝加哥的高级合伙人，其合著的新近作品有《火箭：保证无限增长的八堂课》（2015年出版）

译者：Pessy

审校：夏林

Tim Cook, chief executive of Apple, is up against his company’s own phenomenal history of success. The iPhone’s ubiquity and dominance have combined to deliver Apple a soaring share price and an astoundingly high percentage of the total mobile phone profit pool. Competitors are either losing boatloads of cash, or delivering marginal profits. Apple has a market cap of $555 billion—with roughly 90% of its value delivered in phones.

But now a number of other promising players are out to eat Apple’slunch—and the U.S. government is after Cook to unlock the iPhone. The FBI wants encrypted data on the phone to help build its case against a murderous extremist in San Bernardino. Cook is resisting, arguing that encryption is the right thing to do to protect customer privacy. Certainly, a protracted fight with the federal government is a recurrent nightmare for any manager.

Five years ago, Cook was appointed CEO of a company with a market cap of $360 billion and $108 billion in sales; its revenue has continued to grow, to $234 billion, and its recently volatile market cap has increased by nearly $200 billion. During Steve Jobs’ last five years, revenue had soared more than fivefold, to $108 billion, while market cap ballooned six-fold, from $61 billion.

Cook’s tenure has seen a remarkable growth in iPhone share and global usage. Jobs would certainly have been proud of the trajectory. But Jobs’ most famous quote was: “Being the richest man in the cemetery doesn’t matter to me. Going to bed at night saying we’ve done something wonderful, that’s what matters to me”

The new “wonderful” is what Apple needs most now.

Other notable chief executives have faced similarly overwhelming challenges, and have fought to stay true to core company values and deliver ongoing value. Cook, of course, when he isn’t fighting the federal government, is trying to reinvigorate Apple’s growth.

Last week, Italian luxury sweater king Brunello Cucinelli told me that shortly after his IPO, his newfound investors told him, “Give us 30% growth.” Cucinellicreated his company to deliver more than sales and profits. His orientation has been to treat his network of local suppliers fairly, pay his employees substantially above market, and ensure that the “human” side of relationships be cherished and reinforced. Cucinelli, who calls himself the company’s custodian and not just CEO, stared down the new investors. He told them 10% is a sustainable growth rate and that anything higher would hype the company. He has delivered on his promise. He believes he is setting the direction for his company for the next 50 years or more.

When Howard Schultz returned to Starbucksafter temporarily “retiring” in 2000 as chief executive, he shut every store down for a day. During Schultz’s retirement, there was intense pressure to deliver 20% growth in sales and profits. In 2008, when he returned, Schultz decided that the company needed to stress speed, service, and quality product.

In a memo to Starbucks employees, he lamented the “watering-down of the Starbucks experience” and “commoditization of our brand.” Insisting on a return to quality and experience control was a bold act at a time when same-store sales had slipped and consumer ranking had dropped. It was a clear statement about values and value, a push for reinvention, programmed expansion, and an emotional connection between employee and customer.

Since Schultz’s return, Starbucks market cap has soared 600%, to $88 billion today. Big bets around expansion, global flag planting, investment ahead of everyone else in electronic loyalty cards, new day parts and the core business have delivered beyond anyone’s expectations.

In what’s close to a bet-the-company move, Co-CEO John Mackey has a new plan to reinvent Whole Foodswith a limited product assortment, more limited customer service, and a lower-price second brand called “365 by Whole Foods Market.” Mackey is also launching a book to convince Americans to eat minimal processed food diet and instead focus on a diet rich in plant-based protein, whole grains, beans, fruits, and vegetables. This is another counterintuitive move: processed foods are traditionally the profit core for typical grocers. If 365 by Whole Foods Market is successful, it will be a move serve the 60 million middle income households in the country, not just the top 20 million. It will define a next wave of growth.

Mackey is attempting to reinvent Whole Foods to take it to the next level. Sales have plateaued at $14 billion. In some markets, same-store sales are flat or declining slightly. To maintain a high P/E and upward trajectory, Whole Foods needs to deliver at least 5% real growth. An alternative to a second brand would have been a price rollback, which would have certainly destroyed value: Whole Foods’ above-average profits are derived from high-margin prepared food, very pricey health supplements, higher sales per square foot and net higher prices on fresh produce, fish, and meats. Whole Foods’ operating margins are three times that of average grocery chains, with up to three times the sales per square foot.

All the leaders above take great satisfaction in leading their organizations and providing a moral compass for employees. They live by a belief that brands are not stable–they are either rising or declining, and that trajectory is a function of invention and innovation.

Steve Jobs famously said, “If today were the last day of my life, would I want to do whatever I am about to do today?” He added . . . “Avoid the trap of thinking you have something to lose . . . There is no reason not to follow your heart.”

Samsung, LG, Huawei, HTC all want what Apple has. Relying on predictable, incremental improvements is no longer good enough.

For companies like Apple facing the legacy of outsized success—as well as hungry competitors—the following are some tough rules for delivering sustainable growth:

Understand your customers’ latent and unspoken needs, their usage and dissatisfactions. Get underneath to the whispers and emotional turmoil. Provide them a startling solution. Know you have their attention when you are unique and differentiated.

Concentrate on understanding the top 2% of your consumers. They love you. They advocate for you. Know them like the back of your hand. Celebrate their loyalty and reward them. Provide them a reason to sing your praises and bring their friends into your camp.

Deliver visually stunning merchandising. Consumers shop with their eyes. They make decisions in milliseconds. You cannot look old, ordinary or uninteresting. Know that the game is constantly being re-upped. A glorious store today becomes dated and trite inside five years. A product that is the same as it was a decade ago is stale and losing position every day.

Understand schismogenesis. This is an anthropological term. A consumer has no obligation to remain loyal to you. She is constantly ranking and re-ranking. You need to earn your place in her heart with stunning products that offer unique benefits.

Your shareholders want predictable and consistent earnings, but honestly that’s an unrealistic expectation in an increasingly volatile market. Great companies that deliver long-term value are built on investment, risk, and new truth. Stunning performance comes from making big leaps, not by taking baby steps or grinding it out.

You have many fans and supporters, Mr. Cook. This fall, it’s time to bring that faithful core a next-generation phone that is a rocket, a must-have, a can’t-do-without.

Michael J. Silverstein is a Chicago-based senior partner of The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) and coauthor, most recently, of Rocket: Eight Lessons to Secure Infinite Growth (2015).