马云驳唱衰中国论

阿里巴巴创始人马云新近收购的《南华早报》最近刊登了一篇采访稿，看好中国的马云在其中就中国经济侃侃而谈。

对于中国GDP增长率从本世纪初的两位数降至7%以下，马云认为：“没有理由指望规模这么大的经济体能永远保持这样的增长速度。对中国来说，一直以这样的速度发展也不好。经过了30多年的增长，用几年时间来进行调整是合理的。”

尽管中国能否摆脱过去五年由债务驱动的增长模式，并且毫发无伤地完成转型是目前经济学界最热门的话题，但许多人都会同意马云的看法。

龙洲经讯联合创始人葛艺豪本周预计，中国既不会迅猛发展，也不会出现崩盘，今后10年中国将“徐徐下滑，会很像20世纪90年代的日本”。在这期间中国将逐步削减巨大的企业债务，去年后者的规模已经是中国GDP的1.5倍以上（要知道，这还不包括同样飞速增长的地方政府债务）。

马云在发表正面评论前首先委婉批评了政府，暗示GDP增速有人为因素。

“有些人说实际[增长]数字可能只有5%。但就算只增长5%，当今世界也再没有哪个同样体量的经济体能达到这样的增速。”

的确如此，被马云当做中国比较对象的实际上只有美国。和全球第三大经济体日本相比，中国的经济规模已经是前者的两倍以上。印度的经济增速最近超过了中国。去年第四季度，印度经济增长了7.3%，中国为6.8%，但印度经济总量依然只有中国的五分之一。

马云说，中国的发展“还会让大多数主要经济体再眼红15-20年”。

他用近期的消费数据来驳斥中国工业增速放慢的观点：“传统行业陷入困境，但我们也看到了国内消费、服务业以及高科技行业的增长，而且年轻人才正在涌向这些领域。”

马云还说，中国脱离重工业会损失低技能就业机会，而快递业将有助于吸收一些低技能劳动者。阿里巴巴支持快递行业的力度很大，原因是据估计淘宝每个季度产生的包裹高达50亿个。阿里巴巴支持的菜鸟物流曾预计，自身的年包裹递送能力最快可在2021年达到1000亿件。

马云指出：“物流和快递行业为低技能劳动者创造了充足的就业机会。我们的增长空间仍然很大。”（财富中文网）

译者：Charlie

校对：詹妮

For a China bull, Alibaba’s founder Jack Ma spouted sensible arguments about its economy in an interview published today with his newly purchasedHong Kong newspaper, the South China Morning Post.

On China’s double-digit GDP growth rates of the 2000s slowing to below 7%: “There is no reason to expect that an economy of such size can maintain such a growth rate indefinitely, nor is it good for China to continue to grow at such speed,” Ma said.“After more than 30 years’ growth, spending a few years to adjust its course is reasonable.”

Many would agree, though whether China can adjust its course away from the debt-fueled growth of the past half-decade and come out unscathed is now the hot topic among economists. Arthur Kroebel of Gavekal Dragonomics predicted this week China is headed for neither boom nor bust but will spend the next decade in “genteel decline, much as Japan has since the 1990s” as it whittles down a corporate debt mountain that passed 150% of GDP last year (note that that doesn’t even include the equally dazzling rise in local government debt in the meantime).

Ma waded into some criticism of the government, suggesting the headline GDP figure is manufactured, before he spun it positively.

“Some say the actual [growth] number could be just 5%. But even with 5% growth, there is no other economy of such size growing at that speed in today’s world.”

While that’s true, he’s really only including the U.S. as competition. China’s economy is already more than double the size of the world’s third-largest, Japan. India’s growth has outpaced China’s recently, hitting 7.3% in the fourth quarter to China’s 6.8%, but India’s economy remains just a fifth the size of China’s.

China’s growth will be “enviable to most other major economies for another 15 to 20 years,” Ma said.

He painted the recent consumer data as a rebuttal to the country’s industrial slowdown. “The traditional industries are struggling, but we also see growth in domestic consumption, the services industry and the hi-tech sector, and young talents are flocking to these areas.”

He also said delivery–an industry heavily supported by Alibaba in as much as its marketplaces are responsible for as many as 5 billion packages a quarter, according to estimates—would help absorb some of the low-skill jobs being lost amid China’s shift away from heavy industry. Cainiao, the Alibaba-backed logistics shipping company, has saidit expects to have the capacity to deliver 100 billion shipments a year as soon as 2021.

“The logistics and delivery industries create plenty of jobs for low-skilled workers,” Ma said. “We still have a lot of room for growth.”