麦肯锡表示，中国的汽车销售量将一路下行

未来5年中，经济的放缓和消费者不断变化的心态将让中国汽车销售额的年增幅减半。

上述观点来自于麦肯锡。就在中国顶级车展于今日在北京拉开帷幕之际，该公司发布了一则全方位的新调查，内容是关于中国消费者对汽车态度的转变。

麦肯锡调查获得的一个重要结论是：该公司预计，2020年之前，中国汽车销售额年增幅将下滑至5%。而在2010-2015年间，中国的销售年增幅则达到了惊人的12%，也正是在此期间，中国超越美国成为了全球最大的汽车市场。

麦肯锡称，“不断变化的消费者态度和宏观经济逆风正在放慢中国汽车市场的增长步伐。”

中国经济遭遇逆风是世人皆知的事情，但消费者态度的变化则不尽然。60%的受调消费者表示，在中国，拥有一辆车不再是身份的象征。然而，42%的受调对象表示，“考虑到较高的维护成本和恶化的交通拥堵”，买车的吸引力已经下降。

37%的受调对象称，买不买车并不重要，因为拼车、汽车租赁和汽车出租以及优步和滴滴快车等热门软件已越来越普遍。到2030年，麦肯锡预计，上述形式的服务会让汽车年销售额下滑10%。（届时，中国的汽车年销售额可能至多达到4000万美元。）

调查的另一项重要发现是：节俭和“购买二手车”这两个并行理念终于被中国汽车市场所采纳。

当麦肯锡在2011年对豪华车买主进行调查时，预算是购车的第四大考虑因素，而今年却成为了第二大考虑因素，仅次于品牌。

同样，二手车市场开始获得关注，但5年前，这一市场几乎不存在。2011年，仅18%的消费者表示他们会考虑购买二手车，今年，这一数字跃升至47%。

Kelley Blue Book总裁史蒂夫•林德对《财富》杂志说，随着二手车销量的激增，去年，他的二手车估价公司在中国进行了扩张。在美国，二手车的市场规模是新车市场的三倍。中国的情况恰恰相反：新车销量至少是二手车的四倍。林德表示，“我们看到，二手车市场在中国的增长非常迅速。”

麦肯锡调查另一项有趣的发现是，中国人对维护之外的汽车服务十分感兴趣，这一点在其他主要汽车市场国家并不多见。67%的受调对象表示，他们希望获得有关安全驾驶和在恶劣环境中避免损耗的建议。64%的受调对象对汽车问题的远程协助服务十分感兴趣。

中国各大城市对这些服务的需求日趋明显。新手司机和拥堵的马路导致中国交通事故死亡率高于其他大国。世界卫生机构表示，中国每年因交通事故身亡的人数达到了26万。交通事故伤亡是中国第三大死因，仅次于中风和心脏病。其交通事故死亡率是美国的8倍。（财富中文网）

译者：冯丰

校对：詹妮

Used sales meanwhile are set to explode over the next decade.

A slowing economy and changing consumer attitudes will cut the annual growth rate of vehicles sales in China in half over the next five years.

That according to McKinsey, which released an extensive new survey of Chinese consumers’ shifting attitudes towards cars as the country’s top auto show began today in Beijing.

The big number in McKinsey’s survey: the firm forecasts auto sales growth to slow to 5% annually through 2020, after vehicle sales rose a scorching 12% annually from 2010 to 2015 in China, during which the country passed the U.S. as the world’s largest car market.

“Changing consumer attitudes and macroeconomic headwinds are slowing growth in China’s vehicle market,” McKinsey said.

China’s economic headwinds are well documented. The changing consumer attitudes not as much. Sixty percent of consumers surveyed said owning a car was no longer a status symbol in China. Instead, 42% said owning a car is less appealing “due to high maintenance costs and worsening traffic congestion.”

Thirty seven percent said owning a car wasn’t as important because of the rise of ride-sharing, leasing, renting, and hailing apps like Uber and DidiKuaidi. By 2030, McKinsey predicts, these types of services could reduce annual vehicle sales by 10%. (By that time, China’s vehicle sales might top 40 million annually.)

The other big survey takeaway: the twin concepts of thrift and ‘buying used’ have finally entered the Chinese car lexicon.

When McKinsey surveyed premium car buyers in 2011, budget was the fourth biggest factor in buying a car; this year it moved up to second biggest factor, after brand.

Likewise, buying used is beginning to gain attention after almost no market existed even five years ago. In 2011, only 18% of consumers said they’d consider buying used; by 2016, the number jumped to 47%.

Steve Lind, president of Kelley Blue Book, told Fortune last year his used car valuation company is expanding in China as used sales multiply. In the U.S., the used car market is three times the size of new car market. The reverse is true in China: new car sales are at least four times the size of used sales. “We see the used car growing very quickly there,” Lind said.

The other interesting takeaway from the McKinsey survey is that more than any other major car market, the Chinese are interested in automotive services beyond maintenance. Sixty-seven percent say they want advice on driving safely and avoiding wear and tear in difficult conditions. Sixty-four percent are interested in remote assistance with vehicle problems.

The demand for these services becomes apparent in Chinese cities where novice drivers and clogged roads lead to higher rates of traffic fatalities than any other major country. The World Health Organization said 260,000 die each year on China’s roads. Road injuries are China’s third leading cause of death, behind stroke and heart disease. Its fatality rate is eight times the rate in the U.S.