中国的自动驾驶汽车路线图

在竞相开发自动驾驶汽车的过程中，美国和欧洲在技术上处于领先位置，但中国正沿着“外道”迅速追赶上来，而且中国的监管机制有可能让自动驾驶汽车率先在中国的公路和城市道路上得到普遍应用。

清华大学汽车工程系教授李克强表示，相关路线图草案最快有望在今年公布，内容包括在3-5年内推出可以在公路上行驶的自动驾驶汽车，以及到2025年推出适于城市行驶的自动驾驶汽车。李克强是该路线图起草委员会主席，这个委员会则得到了工业和信息化部的支持。

该草案将设定相应技术标准，包括车辆相互通信使用的通用语言、基础设施和监管原则，从而形成一个统一的框架，这和美国各州自行设定法律和标准的混乱局面完全不同。

美国国家公路交通安全管理局前局长大卫•思特里克兰德本月在北京的一次活动上表示，如果不进行协作，上述混乱局面可能阻碍自动驾驶汽车在美国的发展。

这种自上而下的做法可能帮助中国超越美国和欧洲。在欧美国家，行业标准通常由汽车厂商协商确立。同时，推广自动驾驶汽车和电动汽车符合中国政府的经济转型方向，即摆脱重工业和低端制造，让高科技和消费行业为经济增长提供动力。

长安汽车自动驾驶汽车项目负责人黎予生指出，“如果我们说服政府让所有公司以及所有上路车辆都必须遵循这个（统一标准）……中国就有机会超过其他国家”，让自动驾驶汽车得到广泛使用。

中国出现自动驾驶汽车的条件已经成熟。作为全球最大汽车市场，中国深受空气污染、交通堵塞和违章驾驶问题困扰。世界卫生组织估算，中国每年有超过20万人死于交通事故。

私家车遍地开花的现象在中国出现的较晚，中国消费者往往也不像西方人那么爱开车。2015年，世界经济论坛的调查显示，75%的中国人表示愿意乘坐自动驾驶汽车，在美国这个数字为50%。波士顿咨询公司预计，20年内中国将成为世界上最大的自动驾驶汽车市场，至少占全球需求的四分之一。

上述路线图草案将首先向行业以及各部委征集意见，随后提交国务院审批。

路线图起草委员会成员、同济大学汽车学院教授白杰说，该委员会将在最基本的层面上定义“自动驾驶”汽车，并确立最基本的功能。

从另一个角度来看，中国打算把目标定的更远一些。委员会主席李克强指出，许多车辆已经借助数字蜂窝技术实现了联网，中国或许会用这项技术来进行汽车通讯，而不是欧美国家使用的专用短程通信技术（DSRC）标准。

他说：“美国、欧洲和日本用了很长时间来开发DSRC，所以它们大力向中国推荐这项技术。我们才刚刚起步，为什么不选择LTE（长期演进无线宽带技术）或5G呢？”

按照这项初步规划，中国至少能和其他开发自动驾驶汽车的国家并驾齐驱，甚至实现超越。

丰田汽车的目标是到2020年在市场上推出可在公路上自动行驶的车辆。奔驰已在这方面研究了20年，目前的计划是推出某些情况下需要驾驶者控制的自动驾驶汽车。

李克强说，一些中国汽车厂商的内部目标和上述路线图草案相符，比如上汽集团以及福特的中国合作伙伴长安汽车，它们也向路线图起草委员会派遣了专家，外国汽车制造商则没有这样做。

当然，要决定全球自动驾驶市场的步调，中国还有一段路要走。

李克强指出，该委员会目前只是在研究自动驾驶汽车的法律问题，比如事故的责任认定。

吉利集团董事长李书福曾说，中国必须修改法律，处于自动驾驶状态的车辆发生事故时，责任要由汽车厂商承担，而非驾驶者。“如果立法工作落后，自动驾驶汽车就很难在中国销售。”

行业咨询机构IHS Automotive分析师杰里米•卡尔森指出：“在政府支持下，中国汽车行业当然有可能取得显著进展。但在技术开发领域还有很多问题，要确保它是安全的，而这就意味着要有一定量的行驶检验。”

本周开幕的北京车展（4月25日-5月4日）前，长安汽车的两辆自动驾驶原型车行驶了2000公里，从长安汽车的重庆总部开到了北京。

这两辆车的驾驶位置上都坐着测试工程师，但他们都没有干预车辆行驶。在自动系统引导下，两车在公路上以每小时80公里的速度行进，并根据交通状况和限速标志调整速度，同时保持在车道中间行驶。这和已经上市的特斯拉汽车的自动驾驶性能基本相当。

黎予生预计，2-3年内市场上就会出现自动驾驶车型。同时，到2020年长安汽车将为开发自动驾驶技术投入50亿元资金。该公司还在和互联网巨头百度商谈开发自动驾驶技术事宜。

北京师范大学教授Wang Yanmin（译者注：这个查不到中文，保留了拼音）说：“科技公司和汽车厂商的交叉领域值得关注。”（财富中文网）

译者：Charlie

审校：詹妮

In the race to develop self-driving cars, the United States and Europe lead in technology, but China is coming up fast in the outside lane with a regulatory structure that could put it ahead in the popular adoption of autonomous cars on its highways and city streets.

A draft roadmap for having highway-ready, self-driving cars within 3-5 years and autonomous vehicles for urban driving by 2025 could be unveiled as early as this year, said Li Keqiang, an automotive engineering professor at Tsinghua University who chairs the committee drafting the plan. The panel is backed by the powerful Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.

The draft will set out technical standards, including a common language for cars to communicate with each other and infrastructure, and regulatory guidelines—a unified framework that contrasts with a patchwork of state laws and standards in the United States.

Without coordination, that patchwork could hold back the development of self driving cars in the U.S., David Strickland, a former safety chief for the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, said at an event in Beijing this month.

China’s top-down approach could see it overtake the U.S. and Europe, where automakers have generally been left to agree among themselves on industry standards. A push for self-driving and electric cars also fits with Beijing’s shift to an economy driven by high-tech and consumer industries rather than heavy industry and low-end manufacturing.

“If we can convince the government that every company, every car on the road must use this (single standard)…then there is a chance China can beat the rest of the world” to the widespread use of self-driving cars, said Li Yusheng, head of Chongqing Changan Automobile’s autonomous drive program.

China is ripe for the advent of self-driving cars. It’s the world’s biggest autos market and is blighted by choking air pollution, traffic congestion and often erratic driving. More than 200,000 people die each year in road accidents, according to World Health Organisation estimates.

As relative newcomers to mass car ownership Chinese also tend not to share the West’s love affair with driving. In a 2015 World Economic Forum survey, 75% of Chinese said they would likely ride in a self-driving car, versus half of Americans. Within 20 years, China will be the largest market for autonomous features, accounting for at least a quarter of global demand, says Boston Consulting Group.

The China draft would be opened up for industry comment and input from a range of ministries, ultimately going to the State Council, or cabinet, for approval.

At a most basic level, the committee will define a “self-driving” car and set a minimum level of functionality, said Bai Jie, a professor at Tongji University who also sits on the expert committee.

In other respects, China plans to be more ambitious. It may adopt cellular data technology—already used in many cars to access the Internet—for cars to communicate, rather than the dedicated short-range communications (DSRC) standard used in the U.S. and Europe, said Li, the panel chairman.

“The U.S., Europe and Japan spent so much time developing DSRC, so they strongly recommend it for China,” Li said. “Here, we’re just beginning so why not choose advanced technology like LTE (Long Term Evolution wireless broadband technology) or 5G?”

China’s provisional timeline would put it at least in line with, if not ahead, of others developing self-driving cars.

By 2020, Toyota Motor aims to market a car that can drive by itself on highways, and Mercedes, after two decades of research, plans to launch a self-driving car, though drivers would be required to take control in certain situations.

Chinese automakers including SAIC Motor and Ford Motor’s local partner Changan have internal targets that match the likely draft roadmap, and are represented on the experts committee, Li said, while foreign car makers are not.

To be sure, China has some way to go to become a global pacesetter in autonomous driving.

Li, the committee chief, said the panel was only now looking into legal issues around self-driving cars, such as who is liable in any collision.

Li Shufu, chairman of automaker Geely, has said China must revise its laws so the manufacturer, not the driver, is held responsible for accidents when a car is in self-drive mode. “If (our) legislation lags behind, self-driving cars will be difficult to sell in China,” he said.

“It’s certainly possible for the Chinese auto industry to make significant headway with government backing, but there’s still a lot going into developing that technology, making sure it’s safe, and that means a certain number of miles driven,” said Jeremy Carlson, an analyst at consultancy IHS Automotive.

Ahead of next week’s Beijing autoshow, Changan took a couple of its prototype self-driving sedans for a 2,000 km (1,243 mile) trip from its Chongqing headquarters to the Chinese capital.

With a test engineer behind the wheel, but with his hands in his lap, the automated system guided the car along the highway at 80 km per hour, adjusting speed for traffic and speed-limit signs, while keeping centred in its lane—roughly on par with the self-drive capabilities of Tesla TSLA 2.20% models already on the market.

Changan’s Li said a self-driving model should be on the market in 2-3 years, with the automaker spending 5 billion yuan ($773 million) to further the technology by 2020. It is also in talks with Internet giant Baidu on developing automated driving technology.

“The intersection between technology companies and automakers is the space to watch,” said Wang Yanmin, a professor at Beijing Normal University.