中国利用债务刺激的反弹能维持多久

毫无疑问，在2016年，中国经济出现反弹，而并未陷入更深的动荡之中。现在的问题是，这种反弹能持续多久。

毕竟，政府的刺激政策是中国经济反弹的直接原因。央行降息已经一年有余，今年第一季度还增加了近1万亿美元的信贷，进而推动两大刺激渠道，即国有部门的建设和投资，轰轰烈烈地运转起来。

这种反弹将持续多久？伦敦资本经济公司首席中国经济学家马克•威廉姆斯给出的答案是今年年底。威廉姆斯认为，宽松政策和增长之间存在大约6个月的时滞。他表示，根据中国政府的说法，截至今年年中，刺激国有部门的资金就会投入使用，对经济的短期刺激效果应该能持续到今年年底。他写道：“但过了那个时点，这种刺激效果基本上就结束了。”

中国的债务水平已经达到GDP的240%左右，引发了诸多担忧，政府对此也十分清楚。中国媒体报道称，中国人民银行正发出信号，让各大银行减缓放贷速度。

尽管如此，目前来看中国经济确实已经出现反弹。资本经济公司估算中国实际经济增长率时，并不依赖政府每个季度发布的数据，后者被许多人认为是操控的结果。据该公司估算，中国经济在今年第一季度的实际增长率为4.8%，尽管低于官方数据（6.7%），但它却是该公司从2014年底开始估算中国经济增长率以来的最高值。（财富中文网）

译者：严匡正

审校：任文科

Now that China’s economy has undeniably rebounded in 2016, instead of falling into deeper chaos, the question is how long the upturn can last.

After all, there’s a direct cause between the Chinese government’s stimulus efforts and the economic upturn. Construction and investment by the state sector—two proxies for stimulus—have boomed as the central bank cut rates for more than a year and expanded credit by almost $1 trillion in the first quarter.

The guess of how long the rebound lasts from one researcher is through the end of the year. Mark Williams, London-based Capital Economics’ chief China economist, says the lag time between policy easing and growth is about six months. Because the money boosting the state sector must be used by the middle of this year, according to the government, Williams says the short-term kick to the economy should last through the end of the year. “But it may not continue much beyond that,” he writes.

The government is aware of worries about China’s accumulated debt, some 240% of GDP. There are already reports in the Chinese press about China’s central bank telling banks to slow the pace of their lending.

Still, China’s economy has picked up for now: Capital Economics approximates China’s real economic growth instead of relying on the government’s quarterly figures, which are widely thought to be manipulated. In the first quarter, its index showed 4.8% growth—less than the government’s official release of 6.7% growth, but the highest rate Capital Economics’ index had measured since the end of 2014.