虚拟现实的未来在中国？

上周，我在深圳参加了由德国IFA公司主办的首届中国电子消费品及家电品牌展。IFA每年9月份都会举办盛大的IFA柏林国际电子消费品及家电展览会。深圳的人口超过1000万，距离香港只有一个小时的车程。这座经常被称为中国硅谷的城市是富士康和其他消费产品工厂的所在地，其代工产品包括苹果的iPhone和iPad。

我参加这个展览会主要是想了解中国厂商如何将他们神奇的制造能力，应用于虚拟现实头盔，他们能否降低产品价格，能否迅速推出对大众消费者更有吸引力的新款虚拟现实头盔。我发现，中国厂商实际上已经在不遗余力地开发更出色的移动头盔了。这些设备借助智能手机，为消费者提供基本的虚拟现实体验。

中国多数虚拟现实头盔都采用固体塑料材质，并提供简单的光学元件，价格约在23.95至129.95美元之间，质量不同价格也不同。你现在就可以在亚马逊上购买深圳制造商生产的多款虚拟现实头盔。

作为一种虚拟现实培训工具，这些头盔的确可以让用户体验更好的谷歌Cardboard原型产品，但我最感兴趣的是，中国制造商能否降低更昂贵的虚拟现实头盔的价格，如Facebook的Oculus和HTC的Vive。中国制造商不光彩的一面是，他们会想方设法地仿制他们认为会热卖的产品，并用更低的价格创造出类似的山寨货。

目前，Oculus的价格为599美元，而且需要一台昂贵的高端PC才能启动。售价899美元的Vive也需要一台配备昂贵显卡的PC，用于渲染虚拟现实内容。

正如我所期待的那样，中国制造商正在努力开发价格更低的类似产品。根据我的调查，至少有3款虚拟现实头盔与Oculus和HTC的产品极其类似，但上市后的价格至少将便宜200至300美元。不过，这些产品目前也需要搭配一台昂贵的PC。有人告诉我，这些价格更低的头盔将在今年的节日季上市。不过，我并不确定，这些产品届时能否运行现有的兼容Oculus或HTC的内容。

虚拟现实的过去、现在和未来

不过，中国厂商并不满足于创造高端虚拟现实头盔的低价版本。他们希望在这方面实现创新，创造出外形与普通眼镜更加类似的虚拟现实头盔。我在展会上看到了一款这样的产品，制造商是一家名叫多哚的公司。

多哚公司CEO对媒体表示，他们生产的Dlodlo Glass V1 VR眼镜目前只是一款原型。我在多哚的展台看到了这款据称将在节日季上市的眼镜，它确实只是一个非常早期的原型——几乎就是外壳设计，没有太多的必要电子元件。不过该公司信誓旦旦地表示，产品的设计已经取得了长足进展，并且向我保证，这款产品很快就会上市。我无法从多哚高管了解到这款眼镜的具体规格。不过，我知道虚拟现实头盔需要哪些技术，所以我严重怀疑多哚能否在今年甚至明年推出这款产品。

事实上，Facebook 公司CEO马克•扎克伯格最近曾告诉开发者，外形与普通眼镜更类似的虚拟现实头盔，至少要在10年之后才能实现。扎克伯格想象的产品要变成现实，需要模压电池与芯片设计等技术取得重大突破才行。

但中国厂商正在积极开发与传统眼镜外观更类似的虚拟现实头盔，这是一个不容否认的事实，我们必须严肃对待。这种设计是虚拟现实眼镜的“圣杯”。多哚和其他中国厂商的革新性工作，可以推动所有虚拟现实头盔厂商向这个方向努力。这种趋势最终将会创造出不令人讨厌、更容易被社会接受的虚拟现实头盔。

通过与参会的许多中国制造商的讨论，我发现中国厂商希望能够带来必要的技术突破，尽快创造出外观更类似于眼镜，并且价格相对低廉的虚拟现实头盔。这个过程或许需要几年时间，但中国厂商已经成为影响未来虚拟现实技术的重要力量。（财富中文网）

本文作者蒂姆•巴加林是业内领先的咨询师、分析师和未来主义者，他关注的领域包括个人电脑和消费者技术。巴加林现任Creative Strategies公司总裁。早在1981年，他就加入该公司，曾经为大多数业内领先的硬件和软件供应商提供分析服务。

译者：刘进龙/汪皓

审校：任文科

I was in Shenzhen, China last week at the first CE China trade show, which was produced by IFA, the German company that also produces the giant IFA CE trade show in Berlin each September. Shenzhen, which has a population of over 10 million people, is about an hour’s drive from Hong Kong. The city is best known as the place where Foxconn and other factories build consumer products, including the Apple iPhone and iPad, and is often called the “Silicon Valley” of China.

I wanted to attend the IFA China CE Show to specifically to see how the Chinese were going to apply their manufacturing magic to virtual reality (VR) headsets, and to see if they could bring prices down and get new VR headsets out that had broader appeal to mass consumer audiences any time soon. What I found is that the Chinese have really gone to town on making better mobile headsets, which use a smartphone to power a rudimentary VR experience.

Most of the Chinese headsets are made of solid plastic and have simple optics, costing anywhere from $23.95 to $129.95 depending on the quality. You can find many of them on Amazon today and have them shipped to you directly from Shenzhen.

While that is nice and it does allow people to use a better Google GOOGL -2.27% Cardboard concept as training wheels for VR, I was most interested to see if the Chinese manufacturers could help get the prices down on the more expensive headsets like the ones from Facebook’s Oculus and HTC’s Vive. The Chinese manufacturers are infamous for aping what they think will be big-selling products and create similar models at cheaper prices when possible.

The Oculus today costs $599 and requires an expensive high-end PC to boot. The HTC HTC 0.00% Vive is $899 and also needs a PC with an expensive graphics card to handle the rendering of the VR content.

As I expected, the Chinese manufacturers are hard at work creating similar headsets at cheaper prices. Behind the scenes I was made aware of at least three VR headsets very much like the ones from Oculus and HTC that could be brought to market at least $200 to $300 cheaper. However, at the moment they too need an expensive PC. I am told that these lower-cost headsets could be out for this holiday season. However, it is unclear if they will be able to run the existing Oculus- or HTC-compatible content when they ship.

The Past, the Present, and the Future of Virtual Reality

But the Chinese are not content with just creating cheaper versions of today’s high-end VR headsets. They want to innovate in this space and create VR goggles that look more like a set of actual glasses. One such product I saw at the IFA China CE show came from a company called Dlodlo, pronounced “dodo.”

The CEO of Dlodlo told a packed press conference that his company’s Dlodlo Glass V1 VR glasses are still a prototype, but he claimed it would launch by the holiday season. I got to see these glasses at Dlodlo’s booth at the IFA CE China show, and indeed could see that these were actually very early prototypes — mostly a shell design without much of the requisite electronics. But the company insisted that it is far along with its design and assured me that they would be ready for the market soon. I could not get any specific specs from Dlodlo executives about the glasses. Given what I know about how much technology goes into VR headsets, I am highly skeptical that Dlodlo will get this to market this year or even next year.

Indeed, Facebook FB 7.93% CEO Mark Zuckerberg recently told developers that a VR headset that looks more like regular glasses is at least 10 years away. There needs to be many breakthroughs in moldable batteries and chip design before we see a product like Zuckerberg envisions.

Yet, the fact that the Chinese are already being very aggressive in creating VR headsets that look more like traditional glasses has to be looked at seriously. This design is the Holy Grail of VR glasses. Revolutionary work by Dlodlo and other Chinese manufacturers could push all headset vendors in this direction. This could lead to less obnoxious and more socially acceptable VR headsets.

In discussions with many Chinese manufacturers at the IFA China CE Show, it became clear that the Chinese want to deliver the technological breakthroughs needed to create VR headsets that are more like glasses and relatively inexpensive as soon as possible. Although this may take a few more years to achieve, the Chinese are in a place to be a major influence on VR technology of the future.

Tim Bajarin is recognized as one of the leading industry consultants, analysts and futurists, covering the field of personal computers and consumer technology. Mr. Bajarin is the President of Creative Strategies, Inc and has been with the company since 1981 where he has served as a consultant providing analysis to most of the leading hardware and software vendors in the industry.