为何苹果应重返乔布斯的商业模式

科技行业转折点来临。苹果公司的销售额和利润13年来第一次出现滑坡，导致金融市场暴跌，苹果的市值也随之蒸发430亿美元。高科技世界就是这样大起大落。

2016年第一季度，苹果68%的收入都来自iPhone，iPad和Mac电脑各自只占9%。苹果成了一家纯粹的手机供应商，但过度依赖单一产品实现增长的风险愈发明显。

在史蒂夫·乔布斯治下，苹果一直在抢占自家产品的市场。2005年iPod Mini仍有巨大需求时，苹果就推出了iPod Nano，截断了iPod Mini的收入。在iPod依然销售火爆之际，乔布斯将集iPod、手机和上网功能于一身的iPhone投入市场。iPhone上市三年后，iPad又出现在人们面前，看起来有可能侵占Mac台式机的销售额。苹果在上马高利润业务迎接不确定的未来时总是很坚决，就像乔布斯反复说的：“如果你不抢自己的市场，别人就会抢走。”

这条箴言显然已经随风而去。

蒂姆·库克上任后，苹果利用在新兴市场的地位继续高歌猛进。中国在苹果收入中所占的比重从2011年的9%升至2014年的29%。更让人担心的是缺乏新产品。Apple Watch尚未闯出名堂，苹果就推出了现有产品的多个变体，比如iPhone 6s和6s Plus、iPad Pro、Air 2、Mini 4和Mini 2。经理人往往会担心新产品和服务直接侵蚀现有产品和服务的销售额，如今苹果可能也陷入了同样的思维模式。

消费电子产品就像商业界的果蝇，变化迅速而且生命周期很短。这种环境基本不容许出现战略性错误。对市场的误读会造成利润下降；多失误几次企业就会没戏。

矛盾的是，采取保守策略并设法保护和维持现有产品也不是办法，顶多只能推迟企业走下坡路的时间。必须在核心业务显露成熟迹象前找到下一个增长点。最好的办法可能就是像乔布斯一样，管理产品生命周期时将自家产品相互竞争作为指导原则。

全球最大胰岛素制造商诺和诺德首席执行官索文森似乎也同意这个观点。他在接受采访时说：“如果我们最终能治愈糖尿病，很大一块业务会消失，但我们会感到骄傲，而且一定能找到别的事做。我们将成为医药行业里社会贡献最大的公司，那会是件了不起的事。”

霍华德·于是洛桑国际管理发展学院战略管理和创新系教授，专攻技术创新、战略转型和管理调整。2015年，工商管理类资讯网站Poets & Quants将于教授评为全球40位40岁以下最佳教授之一。他在哈佛商学院获得博士学位。

译者：Charlie

审校：夏林

The tech world is witnessing a turning point. Apple just saw its first decline in sales and profits in 13 years, triggering a selloff in the financial market that wiped out $43 billion of the company’s market value. Such is the rough-and-tumble play of the high-tech world.

As recent as in Q1 2016, 68% of the company revenue came from the iPhone, while the iPad and Mac each commanded merely 9%. Apple is first and foremost a mobile phone provider, which in turn highlights the danger of overreliance on a single product for growth.

Under Steve Jobs, Apple AAPL -2.85% had a track record of cannibalizing its own products. In 2005, when the demand for the iPod Mini remained huge, the Nano was launched, effectively destroying the revenue stream of an existing product. And while iPod sales were still going through the roof, Jobs launched the iPhone which combined iPod, cell phone, and Internet access into a single device. Three years after the iPhone’s launch, iPad made its debut and raised the prospect of cutting into Mac desktop computer sales. So resolute was Apple’s determination in trading a highly profitable business for an unknown future that Jobs reportedly said, “If you don’t cannibalize yourself, someone else will.”

That mantra has apparently disappeared.

With Tim Cook, Apple has experienced unmitigated growth by exploiting its market position in emerging countries. Revenue from China has grown from 9% of Apple’s overall revenue in 2011 to 29% in 2014. More worrisome is the lack of new products. While the Apple Watch has yet to make significant inroads, consumers saw the proliferation of different models of existing products: iPhone 6s and 6s Plus; iPad Pro, Air 2, Mini 4, and Mini 2. What managers often fear most is a company’s new products and services with lower profit margins directly cutting into the sales of existing ones. Apple is now in danger of falling into the same pattern of thinking.

Consumer electronics are the fruit flies of the business world. Change is rapid and life cycles are short. In such an environment, there is little room for strategic mistakes. Misreading the market leads to diminished earnings; misreading it a few times, the company is sent packing.

Paradoxically, pursuing a conservative strategy and trying to protect and extend existing products is not an option either. It only delays decline. One must develop the next growth engine before the core business begins to show signs of maturity. And the best rule of thumb is perhaps to follow Jobs’ footstep of imposing cannibalization as a guiding principle to manage product life cycle.

Lars Sørensen, CEO of Novo Nordisk—the world’s largest maker of insulin—seems to agree. “If we wind up curing diabetes, and it destroys a big part of our business, we can be proud, and you can get a job anywhere,” he said in an interview. “We’ll have worked on the greatest social service of any pharmaceutical company, and that would be a phenomenal thing.”

Howard Yu is professor of strategic management and innovation at IMD. He specializes in technological innovation, strategic transformation and change management. In 2015 Professor Yu was featured in Poets & Quants as one of the Best 40 Under 40 Professors. He received his doctoral degree at Harvard Business School.