库克老调重弹

苹果的股价最近开始走低了。据全美广播公司财经频道（CNBC）报道，苹果股价本周一再次小幅下跌，标志着该公司的股价已经连续8天走低，这也是1998年以来，苹果股票连日下跌时间最长的一次。

这里我们不妨再回顾一下历史：1998年的那一次，正好是乔帮主重新执掌公司的一年后，和iPod、iPhone和iPad大卖之前的那段时间。而此次更糟糕的是，苹果股价于本周一收于93.64美元，基本上已经回到了四年前的水平。

或许正是股价下跌的压力，才刺激得CEO蒂姆•库克今天走进了CNBC的直播间，花些时间与主持人吉姆•克莱默聊聊苹果的未来。除了股价压力之外，库克之所以要亲自上镜造势，也可能是由于华尔街的整体氛围于己不利，因为华尔街分析师们对苹果的态度正倾向于愈加负面。

在4月26日的收益电话会议上，苹果承认iPhone手机的年销量出现了首次下降，公司营收入也出现了2003年以来的首次下跌。而在今天的采访中，库克的说词与上次收益电话会议相比毫无新意，依旧是一脸的乐观和那几个老调重弹的借口——强势美元，中国经济的疲软，以及现有iPhone用户选择升级新款手机的比率下降等等。

“这是几个因素共同作用的结果。”库克对克莱默表示。

同时库克也再次重复了他的一贯论调，他表示苹果用户从来没有像今天这样对公司的产品如此满意，而且苹果还有一些尚未发布的杀手锏级秘密武器让他感到“超级兴奋”，其中也包括新iPhone。他表示：“我们将会为你带来一些你再也离不开的东西，只不过今天你还不知道自己需要它们。”看克莱默的神色，对这话似乎颇有几分怀疑。

库克还指出，印度是一个重大的市场，而且其潜力尚未充分发掘。他还指出，印度将在2022年成为全球人口最多的国家。

不过在库克的侃侃而谈中，绝对没有任何新东西或是什么令人兴奋的东西。本周一，华盛顿最有名望的华尔街苹果分析师托尼•萨科纳西给库克执政以来的这几年打了个分。虽然这张成绩单表面上有批评也有表扬，但批评的部分显然要比表扬更有说服力。

这位分析师写道：“投资者们认为，苹果已经失去了自己的市场‘魔咒’。管理层传达出的前后矛盾的信息令人越来越担忧，另外它的产品创新速度太慢，而且苹果在中国的大热时代也已经结束。此外最重要的是，iPhone的利润似乎已经到顶了。”

萨科纳西认为，库克已经失去了许多投资者的信任。一年前，库克曾经表示，iPhone用户的升级率并没有任何不寻常的升高迹象。而在苹果最近一次与分析师的收益电话会议上，他不仅以去年的iPhone升级率出现了不寻常的升高作为今年销量下降的借口，甚至干脆抵赖了自己去年说过的话（“你说我说过关于升级周期之类的这些话，但我不记得自己曾说过这些话。”）

一度被奉为运营大师的库克，似乎也在为供需平衡的问题而头痛。上个季度，苹果大大提高了iPhone的库存，而这个季度又在计划大砍库存。另外，苹果似乎还低估了消费者对它的最低配——iPhone SE手机的需求，因为潜在买主不得不等上几个星期才能等到新订单到货。

当被问道他是否认为华尔街错估了对苹果未来的预期时，库克耍了一回太极：“华尔街是由许许多多的人组成的，所以那里有很多不同的观点，我不确定那里会有一种观点是普遍的。”

到采访结束时，苹果股价在当日午后交易中几乎原地踏步。或许苹果的投资者真正需要的，是让苹果把更多精力放在产品创新和供应链规划上，少花些心思在投资者关系、股票回股和操纵舆论这些事上。（财富中文网）

译者：朴成奎

Apple’s stock price is in the dumps. A small drop on Monday marked the eighth consecutive daily loss for the company, the longest such losing streak since 1998, according to CNBC.

In case you need a historical refresher: That was a year after Steve Jobs returned to the company, but before the great run of the iPod, iPhone, and iPad. To make matters worse, Apple’s shares, which closed at $93.64 on Monday, are around where they traded four years ago.

Maybe the depressed stock price is what prompted CEO Tim Cook to visit CNBC’s studios today and spend some time chatting with host Jim Cramer about Apple’s future. It also may have been the vibe coming from Wall Street, where analysts are increasingly negative about Apple AAPL -0.11% .

But Cook spent the entire interview repeating the same optimism mixed with excuses that he gave on the company’s April 26 earnings call, when Apple reported its first ever year-over-year decline in iPhone sales and its first revenue decline since 2003. It’s that darn stronger dollar, the weak economy in China, and a temporary slowdown in the rate of iPhone owners upgrading to new models.

“A confluence of items in there,” Cook told Cramer.

He repeated his standard argument that Apple customers have never been more satisfied with the company’s products and that he was super excited about some of the secret, unannounced gadgets to come including new iPhones. “We’re going to give you things that you can’t live without that you just don’t know you need today,” Cook told a skeptical Cramer.

Cook also pointed to India as a major untapped market, which he noted would become the most populous nation in the world in 2022.

But there was absolutely nothing new or surprising in Cook’s chatter. Earlier on Monday, Toni Sacconaghi, one of the most respected Wall Street Apple analysts, put out a report card on Cook’s recent tenure, and while the note ostensibly included both highs and lows, the critique was considerably more convincing than his praise.

“Investors believe Apple has lost its marketplace ‘mojo’, management’s inconsistent messages are increasingly worrisome, product innovation is too slow, Apple’s China run is over, and – most importantly – that iPhone profits have likely peaked,” the analyst wrote.

Cook has lost credibility with investors, according to Sacconaghi. A year ago, Cook said there was no unusual increase in iPhone upgrade rates. On Apple’s most recent call with analysts, not only did he cite an unusually high upgrade rate from last year as an excuse for this year’s drop in sales, but he even denied saying what he had said last year (“I don’t recall saying the things that you said I said about the upgrade cycles.”)

Cook, once considered an operations guru, also appears to be struggling to match supply and demand. Apple excessively increased iPhone inventory last quarter and plans a huge cut this quarter. It also appears to have underestimated demand for its new lowest price model, the SE, Sacconaghi noted, as potential buyers have been forced to wait for weeks for new orders to ship.

Asked by Cramer if he thought Wall Street was wrong about Apple’s future, Cook punted. “Wall Street is a collection of people, right, so there are many different viewpoints in there,” he said. “I’m not sure there is a common one.”

By the end of the interview, Apple’s share price had barely moved in after hours trading. Maybe what Apple investors really need is more focus at Apple on product innovation and supply chain planning and perhaps less on investor relations, stock buybacks, and spin.