美国公司应该乐观的三个原因
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美国经济看似已经从2008年的“大衰退”中恢复了，但近来汇率震荡、石油价格起伏不定，种种风险都令美国中小企业主和公司高管忧心忡忡。虽然大家都预计今年公司业绩不错，但对经济全局都不太看好。2016年摩根大通商业领袖展望报告中的调查结果显示，相比去年，企业管理者对美国和世界经济的信心大幅下降。 不过，虽然商业领袖对经济的悲观程度愈发严重，实际上经济前景并没有报告中那般暗淡。悲观情绪严重有部分原因是调查时间为今年年初，当时市场格外动荡，尤其是股债双杀，外汇市场也跌宕起伏。认真观察几项经济指标可知，有三个迹象表明，2016年经济可能比之前商业领袖预期的要好。 首先，国内生产总值（GDP）很可能少算了经济活动中的重要组成部分。 人们通常会认为，如果GDP增长率健康，经济状况就好——同理，如果GDP增长不尽如人意，经济就会陷入疲软。所以去年冬天GDP增速落至1%时，很多人都开始担心经济复苏的前景。不过，GDP估算的数字很可能忽略了经济活动中一些重要组成部分，尤其是移动技术，以及优步、Airbnb等新兴数字平台。其实新兴产业也在大幅提振美国劳动力生产率，只是目前还难以测算。 失业率在下降。诸多衡量经济健康程度的指标中，失业率是最一致也最全面的。GDP增长率等指标都是基于估算，失业率（通常通过失业救济申请数计算）是实打实的，几乎能准确计算出近期失业人数。去年的统计数字比较乐观：失业率出现下降，而且水平维持在历史较低水平。 借贷活动活跃 经济状况不好时，申请贷款的人数通常会下降，因为企业和个人不会像经济稳健增长时一样敢于投资。所以去年借贷活动增加显示经济活跃度提高，还是很振奋人心的。 美国银行的资产负债表以每年5%的增速扩张 商业和工业借贷的年增速达到10% 消费者信贷、商业地产贷款和按揭贷款增速都在提高 尽管商业领袖对今年经济状况并不看好，但看起来并没有改变计划：报告显示大部分管理者，有70%对今年公司业绩预期乐观，65%预计收入/销售额会增长，60%预计利润会增加。 说到底，随着市场继续反弹，消费者支出增加，公司业绩也会随之提高，有充分理由相信对美国公司来说2016年会是个好年头。 约翰•西蒙斯是摩根大通商业银行中小企业及特殊行业负责人。(财富中文网) 译者：Pessy 校对：詹妮 |
The U.S. economy may have recovered from the Great Recession, but risks ranging from currency volatility to an unstable oil market have left America’s mid-sized business owners and executives torn. While they expect their companies to perform well this year, their views of the greater economy aren’t nearly as optimistic. According to results from the 2016 JPMorgan Chase Business Leaders Outlook report, executives’ optimism about the U.S. and global economies fell significantly this year from last. GDP is likely missing some vital components of economic activity. People often link a healthy GDP growth rate with a healthy economy—and lethargic GDP with economic weakness. So when GDP growth slowed to a 1% annualized rate this past winter, many became concerned about the implications for the economic recovery. However, GDP estimates are likely missing some key elements of economic activity—particularly in regards to mobile technology and the emergence of digital marketplaces like Uber and Airbnb, as they’re increasing the productive capacity of the American workforce in ways that are difficult to measure. Jobless claims are softening. Jobless claims are the most consistent and comprehensive gauge of the economy’s health, and they are at the lowest they’ve been in decades. While measurements like GDP growth are based on estimates, jobless claims (applications for unemployment benefits) are a concrete measurement of nearly all those who are recently unemployed. And the story being told by layoffs is positive: Over the past year, the rate of jobless claims has dropped—and it remains at a near-record low. Lending activity is strengthening. When the economy struggles, applications for loans typically drop—people and businesses don’t feel as comfortable making investments as they do when the economy is robust. So it’s encouraging to see that over the last year lending activity show signs ofstrengthening: o U.S. banks’ balance sheets have expanded at an annual rate of 5% o Commercial and industrial lending has achieved a 10% annual growth rate o Consumer credit, as well as commercial real estate and mortgage lending, have accelerated Even though business leaders are more pessimistic this year, they don’t appear to be changing their plans: The report shows that the majority of executives,70%, have positive expectations for their companies’ performance in the coming year, 65% expect revenue/sales to increase and 60% expect profits to increase. Ultimately, as markets continue to rebound and businesses begin to reap the benefits of consumer spending, there’s reason to believe that 2016 will prove to be positive for US businesses. John Simmons is Head of Middle Market Banking & Specialized Industries at JPMorgan Chase Commercial Banking. |
