拿印度跟中国比？还差得很远！

自从现任印度总理莫迪2004年上台以来，许多“财富500强”企业的CEO都将目光瞄准了印度。与此同时，许多投资者都对中国的经济放缓表示担忧。然而中国的经济增长率与印度相比，仍将是毫不逊色的。

美国一些耸人听闻的报道将中国经济描述为“行将就木的巨龙”，称中国经济即将走向崩溃。这种观点实在过于负面了。中国在基础领域的一些优势，意味着即便其经济增长率在短期内将有所放缓，但它在未来几年里仍能保持6%到7%的水平。而美国要达到同样的增长率，简直是做梦。

印度的经济也将保持较快的增长，然而却不太可能达到莫迪所期望的水平。印度松散的政治体制意味着莫迪政府无论出台怎样的改革政策，也无论这些政策的目的多高尚，都不可能像中国那么快地见成效。

必须正视的是，世界经济实力的天平已经开始向中国和印度的方向倾斜。随着两国经济改革步伐的进一步加快，中印在全球经济领域的话语权也将进一步加大。到2030年，中印两国将分别成为全球第一和第三大经济体。两国的中产阶层人口数量也将分列全球第一和第二名——当然，这些庞大的中产人口也是美国企业眼中的香饽饽。同时，中印两国对自然资源和能源的需求，以及其二氧化碳的排放量，也都将是全球之首。

经过30多年的发展，邓小平于80年代提出的“中国特色社会主义”经济体系的弊端已经逐步显现。过度投资、国有企业效率低下、政府债台高筑和贫富差距拉大等现象都是亟待解决的问题。不过中国经济也存在着一些有利因素。首先，中国拥有大量自然资源、资本和劳动力。其次，较高的国民储蓄率意味着中国无需依赖于朝秦暮楚的外部资本。再次，虽然中国人口老龄化的速度很快，但在未来几十年里，中国仍将拥有充足乃至过剩的劳力，况且政府还在有意延长相对较低的退休年龄，并且放松了既有的独生子女政策。凭借13亿多人口的庞大内需市场，中国抵御外部经济风险的能力也要强于那些体量较小的经济体。

但是，中国经济的确面临着相当严峻的挑战。中国经济能否保持长期增长，取决于国家主席习近平能否继续推动关键的市场改革，而非注重短期的刺激。

中国共产党深知它必须打造一个更大的消费阶层，但这是需要时间的。大多数中国居民更加注重储蓄而不是消费，因为他们尚未拥有真正的社会保障网络。中国政府正在着力解决这个问题。一方面中国正在修建更多的学校，另一方面，政府每年都将医疗支出加大10%以上，并着力建立健全养老金体系，以减轻居民赡养年老父母的压力。另外，开放二胎政策也是有助于促进消费的，因为二孩家庭显然有更多的支出。这些改革已经见到了初步成效，目前，中国家庭消费的增长速度已经达到了GDP增长率的一倍半。

如果中国的改革家们能够将中国经济转型为接近真正市场机制的市场，那么中国凭借庞大的国内市场、日益增长的内需以及较高的国民储蓄率，仍能实现经济的健康增长。虽然与改革开放前几十年的飞速增长期相比，增长速度可能会有所下降，短期内经济增幅甚至有可能下降至4%乃至更低，但用不了几年，中国的经济年增率又将回到6%到7%的轨道。

与中国相比，印度则更加任重而道远。尽管在2014年印度大选莫迪胜选后，曾有多达19,000名莫迪粉聚集在麦迪逊花园广场高喊他的名字，但是在他的领导下，印度经济一直没能实现人们期待的那种高速增长。在中国，在中央政府的强力推动下，即便是一些艰难的改革方案也能够得以推行。印度则和中国不同，各色各类的利益集团吵吵嚷嚷，阻碍了很多重要的经济改革措施的实施。另外，由于莫迪的印度人民党在议会上院中并不占据多数，导致莫迪政府在能源、基础设施建设乃至劳工政策等许多关键领域的议案无法获得议会通过，因此莫迪政府也就无法轻易开展改革。

当然，在莫迪及其执政团队的勇敢尝试下，印度经济近来的表现也是可圈可点的。比如莫迪已经开放了更多的外资准入部门。另外，企业目前已经可以在网上申请多种执照和许可证，从而一方面提高了效率，另一方面也减少了腐败。此外，2014年以来，印度政府已经承诺斥资 520亿美元，对该国的公共基础设施进行全面升级。这是一个很好的开端，不过据一些专家预测，印度要想全面对公路、铁路、机场和港口等基建设施进行升级，至少要1万亿美元才敷用。

在执政的第一年里，莫迪政府也运气极佳地打破了一些纪录，交出了一份相当抢眼的答卷：2015年，印度经济增长速度达到7%以上，几十年来首次超越了中国。另外，受国际油价走低的影响，2015年，印度的通胀率也下跌了一半以上。而随着投资者将创历史新高的420亿美元投入印度股票及债券上，等待多时的股市改革预计也将终于拉开序幕。

不过，印度经济的可持续增长速度可能将低于乐观人士的预期。一些有利于企业更轻易地购买土地、聘用和解聘工人的法案，和一项旨在简化繁琐的税收体系的重要法案，已经在印度议会搁置了近两年，至今尚未通过。

尽管莫迪在世界各地演讲时，不遗余地推销他的“印度制造”理念，但印度在制造业的实力上，仍然远逊于中国等国家。

即便面临经济放缓的困局，中国在2014年仍然创造了1300多万个新增工作岗位，而在同一时间段里，印度却连100万个新增岗位都没能创造出来。而对于印度来说，能否创造大量新增工作岗位，对于吸收未来几十年快速膨胀的劳动力人口是至关重要的。印度在教育问题上也面临着严峻的挑战。要解决这个问题，第一步是要修补其千创百孔的教育体系，而这至少需要对一二百万名新增教师进行培训。

莫迪的热情高涨的改革如果能够得以持续，那么印度将能够释放相当一部分潜能，其经济增长率也能够超过中国。未来几年，印度的经济很可能会继续维持5%到7%的增长势头。虽仍无法超过中国，但也是了不起的成绩了。到2030年，印度有可能将成为世界第三大经济体——虽然其规模仍远逊于中美两国。届时它也将拥有全球第一或第二大规模的中产阶级人口，并成为除中国以外，亚洲最主要的经济增长引擎。

本文作者安佳•马尼勒也是《美丽新世界：印度、中国与美国》一书的作者。（财富中文网）

译者：朴成奎

Despite the attention many Fortune 500 CEOs have paid to India since the election of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2014, China’s growth will continue to rival its Asian neighbor even as investors worry that its economy is slowing down.

U.S. headlines have called China’s economy the “Doomed Dragon,” predicting it is headed for disaster. This sentiment is too negative. China’s fundamental strengths mean that even if growth slows in the short-term, it will likely keep growing at an annual rate of between 6% and 7% in a few years; rates the U.S. would only dream of.

Asia’s other rising giant, India, will also grow quickly, but is unlikely to perform quite as well as its popular Prime Minister Modi hopes. India’s decentralized political system means that no matter how well-meaning, the Modi government cannot achieve change nearly as quickly as the Chinese.

Nonetheless, the economic weight of the world has already shifted in China and India’s direction. It will continue to do so as their economic reforms move forward. By 2030, China and India, respectively, are expected to be the first and third largest economies in the world, with the largest middle classes that U.S. companies will wish to sell to. They will lead the world in demand for natural resources and energy, and be its largest carbon emitters.

The limits of “socialism with Chinese characteristics,” the economic system established by Deng Xiaoping in the 1980s, are now becoming clear. Over-investment, inefficient state-owned enterprises, mounting government debt and growing inequality are unsustainable. However, several factors weigh in China’s favor. The economy is large with plenty of natural resources, labor and capital. Its high savings rate means that China doesn’t have to rely on fickle external capital. In spite of its rapidly aging population, China will still have surplus labor for at least the next few decades. Moreover, the government is raising artificially low retirement ages and relaxed its one-child policy. With more than 1.3 billion consumers, China’s large internal market makes it less sensitive to external economic shocks than small economies.

Yet there are real headwinds. China’s long-term growth will depend on whether President Xi continues to push forward with key market-friendly reforms, instead of prioritizing short-term stimulus.

The Communist Party knows it must build a larger consumer class, but this will take time. Most Chinese still save more than shop because they have no real social safety net. The government is moving to fix this. It is building more schools , spending well over 10% a year more on healthcare and shoring up the pension system so that families will be less burdened by caring for elderly parents. Allowing Chinese to have more children will also help boost demand: two-child families spend far more money. These reforms are already paying off. Household consumption is growing at one and a half times the rate of China’s GDP growth.

If China’s reformers are able to move the economy closer to a true market system, a big internal market, growing consumption, and high savings will help the country grow. While the pace will slow, possibly even to 4% or lower in the short term, it is reasonable to assume that in a few years China will be back to 6% to 7% annual growth.

India has further to go. Despite the 19,000 people chanting Prime Minster Modi’s name in Madison Square Garden just after his 2014 election, he was never going to be able to deliver on these very high expectations for growth. Unlike in China, where the central government can push through tough compromises, a noisy collection of interest groups stall many key economic reforms. Modi’s BJP Party does not have a majority in the upper house of Parliament, and many key issues, such as energy, infrastructure, and even many labor policies, are reserved for the states and cannot be changed easily from Delhi.

Modi and his team have been trying valiantly with some success: he has opened more sectors to foreign investment and companies can now obtain many licenses and permits online, making the process faster and less susceptible to corruption. India’s government has agreed to invest $52 billion in to upgrade the country’s creaking infrastructure since 2014. This is a great start, but by some estimates India needs $1 trillion for new roads, rails, airports and ports.

Modi also had some lucky breaks in his first year that helped him deliver stellar growth: in 2015, India’s economy grew more than 7%, faster than China for the first time in decades. Due mostly to lower international oil prices, India’s inflation rate fell by more than half in 2015. The stock market boomed as investors poured a record $42 billion into Indian stocks and bonds, expecting that reforms would finally start.

However, sustained progress will be slower than India optimists predict. Key legislation that would make it easier for companies to buy land, to hire and fire workers, and an important law to simplify India’s byzantine tax system have been held up in Parliament in Delhi for nearly two years.

Despite Modi’s speeches around the globe to promote growth through his “Make in India” campaign, India is still far behind countries like China in the push for manufacturing might.

Even with a slowing economy, China created more than 13 million jobs in 2014, while India struggled to achieve even a million. These are jobs India needs to absorb its rapidly expanding workforce in the coming decades. India also has the herculean task of educating its young people. A first step towards this requires fixing its broken education system, which will require training between 1 and 2 million new teachers.

If Modi’s zealous reforms continue, India can unlock some of its latent potential and grow faster than China. It is more likely that the current trajectory of 5% to 7%growth continues. Although it won’t surpass China, this is an impressive achievement: by 2030, India will likely be the world’s distant third-largest economy, with the largest or second-largest middle class, and Asia’s key economic engine outside China.

Anja Manuel is the author of This Brave New World: India, China, and the United States.