比特币再次暴涨的三个原因

比特币再掀狂潮。经过一段漫长的价格平台期之后，世界上最著名的数字货币再次发力，迎来一轮暴涨。

上周二，比特币的单价直冲550美元，超过了它在2014年8月创下的单价约533美元的纪录。过去半年来，比特币的价格基本上在350-450美元之间徘徊，眼下这轮上涨使这段为时6个月的平静期宣告终结。

就在一年前的这个时候，比特币的境况还是凄风苦雨。2015年6月1日，只要花226美元就能买一个比特币，如今可谓天壤之别。要想一窥暴涨的疯狂程度，看看Coindesk网站的比特币价格指数图就知道了，该图显示了比特币在过去一周的价格走势。

Here we go again. After a long stretch in which the price of bitcoin held stable, the world’s most famous digital currency is on the move again—and this time it’s heading straight up.

On last Tuesday, bitcoin was nosing towards $550 per unit, which is even higher than August 2014, when bitcoin prices reached almost $533. The recent move also ends a six-month period of relative tranquility in which prices mostly hovered between $350 and $450.

It’s also a remarkable improvement from a year ago when the currency was in the gutter. On June 1, 2015, one could buy a bitcoin for $226. To get the flavor the recent uptick, here is a screenshot from Coindesk’s price index, showing prices in the last week:

那么，本轮暴涨背后玄机何在？关于这个问题很难有一个确切的答案，因为比特币的那套运作原理对外行来说是谜一样的存在，而懂行的人对于拉高或砸低比特币价格的时间通常早已运筹帷幄。尽管如此，以下还是为当前的价格疯涨给出了三个原因。

原因一：比特币挖矿的成本可能进一步提高

比特币从本质上来说是通缩的，这意味着随着时间推移，比特币产矿量会减少。关键是在不久的将来，比特币挖矿的回报将从25比特币降到12.5比特币。

这次价格减半将发生在第42万区块比特币被挖出的时候，很可能未来几周就会迎来这个时刻。我们尚不清楚市场价格届时将受到怎样的影响，但是几则新闻报道称，过去一周的价格暴涨可能部分来自于迫在眉睫的矿产供应减少的压力。

原因二：对新的电子货币的炒作重燃公众对比特币的兴趣

不久前出现的以太坊（Ethereum）作为一种区块链技术得到了银行和风投的大力支持，科技圈的达人们对它谈论不少。简而言之，很多人认为以太坊与比特币相比更迅捷、更可靠，甚至可能作为一种更出色的电子货币取代比特币。

竞争对手的出现对比特币来说当然是一个坏消息。然而Quartz网站上的一篇文章提出一种假设：以太坊价格上涨可能反过来会刺激比特币的价格。但是到目前为止，没有证据表明这两种电子货币的价格之间有很强的关联影响。

原因三：中国，中国，中国

中国因素似乎是比特币价格暴涨背后最让人信服的原因。《华尔街日报》载文说：

目前，全球约92%的比特币交易是在火币网（Huobi.com）和OKCoin这两个中国的比特币交易平台上完成的。上周末比特币价格上涨也许只是一个最新的迹象，表明中国投资者在不同资产之间转移资金，以谋求更高回报。

中国的经济形势左右着比特币在过去的波动，因此我们有理由认为，本轮暴涨也与中国有关。

同时，内行人士在Reddit和推特网站上的留言也提到了中国投资者效应，而且他们认为这种效应可能不会持续太久。如果最后证明比特币的买入狂潮只是资产转移到其它形式的一个过路小站，当前的疯狂局面就会结束：

So what’s behind the recent surge? It’s hard to say for certain since the workings of bitcoin are often inscrutable to outsiders, while those who are in the know typically have an agenda to push the price up or down. That said, here are three explanations for the current price jump.

Reason 1: Mining bitcoin is about to get more expensive

The nature of bitcoin is deflationary, however, meaning that fewer bitcoins are mined as time goes on. Critically, at some point in the near future, the reward for miners will drop from 25 bitcoins to 12.5 bitcoins.

It’s unclear how this price cut, which will take place when bitcoin block 420,000 is mined (probably in the coming weeks), will affect the price of in the market. But several news reports claim the recent surge in the price may be driven in part by the impending stress on the mining supply.

Reason 2: Hype over a new digital currency is reigniting interest in bitcoin

Tech types have been buzzing about the emergence of Ethereum, a new blockchain technology that is winning big support from banks and venture capitalists. In short, that is many think Ethereum is faster and more reliable than bitcoin, and could even supplant it as the pre-eminent digital currency.

The emergence of a rival currency might, of course, seem bad for bitcoin. A Quartz article asks, however, if a price surge for ethereum might instead serve to rub of on bitcoin. But so far, there is little evidence that the price of the two currencies is strongly correlated.

Reason 3: China, China, China

This seems the most convincing explanation for the bitcoin surge. According to the Wall Street Journal:

Huobi and OKCoin, two Chinese exchanges, now collectively account for some 92% of global trading in bitcoin. The surge in bitcoin buying last weekend could be the latest sign of how Chinese investors are moving money between asset classes quickly in search of high returns.

Goings-on in China have driven bitcoin volatility in the past, and it stands to reason that this is what’s going on again.

Meanwhile, comments on Reddit and Twitter from those in the know not only point to a Chinese investor effect, but also raise the possibility that the effect won’t last. This will occur if the bitcoin buying just turns out to be a way-station on the way to other assets:

（上图划红线的那句翻译如下：）

我去，比特币就像全球经济的周末期货市场一样。这太疯狂了。比特币开始整合了。

我担心的是，比特币的大量买进只是资金从人民币市场的短期退出罢了，不久之后这些钱将大量涌入美元或英镑市场。

那么，当前的暴涨是否释放出一个信号，即虚拟货币终于开始流行？还是说，这只是比特币那著名的价格波动的又一个例子？贪婪的外行们蜂拥而入，为财而忙，而几周或几个月之后，当价格再次一落千丈，他们是否终将玩火自焚？答案很快就会揭晓。（财富中文网）

译者：珠珠

My concern is that big chunk of BTC buys is a short-term exit from CNY before dumping it for USD/GBP later.

6:44 PM - 30 May 2016

So is the current price surge a sign that virtual currency is catching on at last? Or is this just another example of bitcoin’s famous volatility in which greedy outsiders rush in to get rich, only to get burned when the price collapses again weeks or months later? We’ll see soon enough.