别跟风唱衰，中国经济依然强劲

眼下最让投资者解不开的谜，莫过于中国经济的走向。中国经济官方数据的可信度很低，政府对经济的干预又十分强势，搞得各路分析师纷纷挠头，弄不清中国经济的增速到底多快，也说不好当前中国经济活动出现的变化究竟是私人部门崛起导致的，还是官方干预的结果。

去年夏天，沪指一度暴跌超过40%，此后官方的经济增长数据也逐步下滑，越来越多的人开始支持这样一个论断：中国经济是一个被债务和政府投资吹起的大泡泡，现在这个泡泡已经被戳破了。本周中国经济又传来了更多不利的消息：中国的财新制造业采购经理人指数跌至49.2，这说明中国的制造业正在收缩。这令中国和各大新兴市场都陷入了恐慌。

虽然中国经济即将“硬着陆”的论断去年着实忽悠了不少人，但传说中的硬着陆其实并未到来。咨询机构高频经济（High Frequency Economics）的首席经济学家卡尔•温伯格认为，我们对中国经济还是应该抱有一些希望的。虽然一些唱衰中国者对中国经济的一些指标深感悲观（如工业增长停滞），但如果从另一个角度解读的话，中国经济目前遇到的或许也只是普通的周期性低迷，同时这可能也是中国从制造型经济向富裕的服务主导型经济转型的过程中不可避免的阵痛。“哪一个G7国家不想把经济增长率数字和中国换一换？”他还指出，即便是按最悲观的预期，中国的经济增长速度也是美国的两倍。

与此同时，还有一些可靠消息源表示，中国的经济增长势头仍然强劲，显现出了一些令人鼓舞的迹象。有一个惊人的迹象可以说明中国经济的生钱速度有多快——中国现在每年的资本输出额达到了1万亿美元。也就是说，中国投资人每年买下的外国资产，大约相当于一个墨西哥的经济产出。除了中国以外，真不知道世界上还有哪个国家能有这样大的手笔。 （财富中文网）

本文还将刊发于2016年6月15日刊的《财富》杂志上。

译者：朴成奎

There are few mysteries more confounding to the modern investor than the Chinese economy. Official statistics are so mistrusted and government intervention so rampant that analysts can’t agree on how fast the economy is growing or whether shifts in economic activity are evidence of private-sector strength or bureaucratic meddling.

Last summer’s 40% decline in the Shanghai Composite stock index, followed by steadily declining official growth statistics, has added credibility to the argument that China’s economy is a punctured bubble, inflated by debt and government--sponsored investment and quickly heading toward collapse. This week there was more bad news, with the private Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ index falling to 49.2, indicating that the Chinese manufacturing sector is in contraction. Cue widespread panic over China and emerging markets in general.

But as much as this “hard landing” theory has gained adherents over the past year, a collapse has yet to come. Carl Weinberg, chief economist at consultancy High Frequency Economics, calls for a little perspective when it comes to the country. The indicators that bears find so damning (industrial sector stagnation) can also be interpreted as evidence of an economy experiencing a humdrum cyclical downturn and of China’s transition from a -manufacturing-based economy to a wealthy, services-driven one. “What G-7 country wouldn’t trade its growth rate for China’s?” he asks, pointing out that even the most pessimistic estimates of Chinese GDP growth are twice that of the U.S.

Meanwhile, there are encouraging signs from credible sources that China’s economy is still strong. One stunning sign of how much cash China’s economy is producing is the fact that the country continues to export $1 trillion in capital a year. That means Chinese investors are buying in foreign assets roughly what the entire Mexican economy produces each year. If only the rest of the world had similar problems.

A version of this article appears in the June 15, 2016 issue of Fortune.