2016年或成全球收并购“流产年”，中资收购逆势增长

今年第二季度，出于对监管和税收风险以及国家安全因素等方面的担忧，全球市场上有多起并购交易宣告流产，导致本季度全球达成的并购交易总价值比去年同期下跌了三分之一。

2015年是全球并购市场创纪录的一年，而今年以来，随着美国政府开始在反垄断领域亮出肌肉，主动打击一批有避税嫌疑或是存在危害国家安全风险的并购交易，2016年或许注定将成为并购交易“流产”最多的一年。

因此，许多公司的高管在筹划一些复杂交易时，面临有可能引来的政府的严密审查，都不免临阵却步，重新考虑交易的可行性。

再加上上周英国脱欧公投给市场造成的波动，导致许多企业的董事会都没有足够的信心来批准并购交易。

巴克莱银行的全球并购负责人盖里·伯斯特耐克指出：“今年，广大企业都不愿意承担较大的监管或税收风险，像许多公司去年那样去主动追求并购交易。而且由于许多此类交易最终未能成功，也无疑给市场造成了一定影响。”

作为去年的最大一笔并购案，美国制药商辉瑞公司以1600亿美元收购爱尔兰肉毒杆菌制造商艾尔建的交易，也在美国财政府出台了旨在打击“税负倒置”行为的政策后宣告流产。（“税负倒置”：指国内企业觉得本国税赋过高，希望通过迁址至海外低税赋国家而少缴税赋的行为。）

上个月，美国油田服务供应商哈利伯顿（Halliburton）与贝克休斯（Baker Hughes）在遭到美国与欧洲的反垄断监管机构的反对后，也只得终结了他们之间价值380亿美元的并购案。

皇家飞利浦公司（Koninklijke Philips NV）原计划将其照明部件部门以28亿美元的价格卖给以金沙江创投（GO Scale Capital）为首的一个中资财团。但在遭到美国外国投资委员会的反对后（该委员会主要审查与国家安全领域有关的交易），也只得取消了计划。

这种动向也影响了新交易的制定。

据汤森路透公司的初步数据显示，今年第二季度，全球市场上已公开宣布的并购交易总价值为8390亿美元，比去年同期下降了32.5%，但比今年第一季度上升了14.2%。

今年第二季度的最大一笔并购交易，是德国化学与生命科技公司拜耳（Bayer）向美国的种子公司孟山都（Monsanto）抛出的620亿美元的收购邀约。不过目前双方尚未就交易细节谈判成功。

本季度其它几笔较大的交易，还包括雅培公司（Abbott Laboratories）以305亿美元收购美国医疗产品制造商圣犹达医疗（St Jude Medical），以及微软同意以262亿美元收购美国专业社交媒体平台领英（LinkedIn）。

最近进行收并购交易的企业，往往会收到一些负面反应——经常是并购决定刚一宣布，收购方马上就能从自己的股价上看到这种负面反应。之所以会有这种反应，有可能是因为今年不少企业在进行收购时，其收购价要高于去年的平均价格。

据高盛集团分析师本周发表的一篇研究文章指出，自全球市场收购溢价去年跌至25%——也就是2006年以来的最低水平以后，今年的收购溢价又回升到了34%，略高于33%的长期平均水平。

高盛集团美洲并购部的负责人马特·麦克克拉尔指出：“现在说英国脱欧是否会导致全球收并购行为放缓，还为时过早。目前，保持市场呈健康交易环境的几个核心因素仍然存在：一是通过收并购交易为企业提供有机增长的需求仍然存在；二是通过协同增效效应来提高企业利润的机会仍然存在；三是能为收并购交易提供融资的低成本资本仍然存在。 ”

英国在全球收并购市场的份额约为7%左右。受英国脱欧的影响，今年第二季度，英国的并购交易成交量比去年同期下跌了85%。

美国银行的全球并购负责人亚德里安·米伊表示：“英国脱欧很可能会继续对全球市场的收并购行为产生影响。英国脱欧提高了市场的波动性，并且对全球经济的展望产生了负面影响。在今年剩余时间，由于不确定性持续存在，因此企业必然会在收并购上采取更为谨慎的态度。”

今年第四季度，欧洲市场的收并购交易下降了41%，交易额约为1473亿美元。而作为全球最大收并购市场的美国，其交易额也下降了23%，为4218亿美元。

加拿大皇家银行资本市场（RBC Capital Markets）的美国并购业务负责人维多·斯伯杜多表示：“虽然近期市场的波动性、不确定性和宏观环境不利等因素，会导致全球收并购交易面临一个具有挑战性的环境，但我们认为，以美国为重点的收并购交易仍将保持相对较强的水平。”

中国企业也是国际收并购市场的一个重要推动力量。年初至今，中国的海外收购总额已达1211亿美元，已然超过了去年1115亿美元的全年收购总额。 （财富中文网）

译者：朴成奎

The value of announced mergers and acquisitions (M&A) worldwide dropped by a third in the second quarter of 2016, as a wave of transactions were abandoned in the wake of concerns over regulatory and tax risks or national security.

While 2015 was a record year for M&A, 2016 is shaping up to be a record year for ‘broken’ deals, as the United States flexes its antitrust muscle and seeks to crack down on deals that aid tax avoidance or risk harming national security.

Such upsets have caused company executives to think twice before contemplating complex deals that could attract government scrutiny.

Coupled with market volatility triggered by Britain’s vote to leave the European Union last week, this has dented some of the confidence required by corporate boards to approve deals.

“This year companies have been reluctant to take on meaningful regulatory or tax risk or to pursue unsolicited transactions to the same extent that many companies did last year. The fact that a number of those deals were not ultimately successful has undoubtedly had an impact,” said Gary Posternack, global head of M&A at Barclays.

Last year’s biggest deal, U.S. drug maker Pfizer’s $160 billion agreement to acquire Dublin-based Botox maker Allergan , was abandoned last April after the U.S. Treasury introduced new rules to curb so-called inversions that are used by companies to lower their bills by redomiciling overseas.

U.S. oilfield services providers Halliburton and Baker Hughes last month terminated their $38 billion merger deal after opposition from U.S. and European antitrust regulators.

In February, Koninklijke Philips NV canceled a planned $2.8 billion sale of its lighting-components unit to a consortium led by China’s GO Scale Capital after the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, which scrutinizes deals on national security grounds, objected.

Such moves affected new dealmaking.

Announced global M&A deals reached a value of $839 billion in the second quarter, down 32.5% from a year ago but up 14.2% from the first quarter of 2016, according to preliminary Thomson Reuters data.

The second quarter’s biggest deal was German chemicals and life sciences company Bayer’s $62 billion offer for U.S. seeds company Monsanto . The two companies have yet to successfully negotiate a deal.

Other deals this quarter included Abbott Laboratories’ $30.5 billion takeover of U.S. medical products maker St Jude Medical and Microsoft’s $26.2 billion agreement to acquire U.S. professional social media platform LinkedIn.

Weighing on M&A has been the recent negative reaction that acquirers have seen in their stock price following a deal announcement. This may be partly due to companies paying more on average to buy companies this year than they did last year.

After declining to 25% in 2015, their lowest level since 2006, bid premiums increased to 34% this year, modestly above the long-term average of 33%, according to a research note this week by Goldman Sachs Group analysts.

“It’s too premature to say if the Brexit decision will cause any slowdown in global M&A activity. The key drivers of a healthy dealmaking environment remain: the need to supplement limited organic growth with M&A, the opportunity to improve margins by realizing synergies, and the availability of low-cost capital to finance acquisitions,” said Matt McClure, Goldman’s co-head of M&A in the Americas.

Dealmaking in Britain, which accounts for 7.0% of global M&A volume, has suffered, with M&A announcements down 85% year-on-year in the second quarter.

“Brexit is likely to have an impact on M&A going forward. It has increased market volatility and negatively impacted the global economic outlook. Ongoing uncertainty will inevitably lead to a more cautious approach to M&A for the rest of the year,” said Adrian Mee, Bank of America Corp’s co-head of global M&A.

European M&A deals were down 41% in the second quarter to $147.3 billion. The United States, the world’s biggest M&A market, was also down 23% to $421.8 billion.

“While recent volatility, headline-induced uncertainty and macro headwinds may create a challenging environment for global deal flow, we expect U.S. focused M&A to remain relatively strong,” said Vito Sperduto, head of U.S. M&A at RBC Capital Markets.

Chinese companies have continued to be a major driver of dealmaking activity. China outbound cross-border M&A totaled $121.1 billion so far this year, already surpassing the full year record of $111.5 billion set last year.