预期降低，问题更多，投资者对苹果存有五大疑虑

苹果公司于7月26日股市收盘后，公布了截至6月30日的第三财季业绩。

至少从华尔街分析师的平均预测来看，投资者的预期较低。预期收入422亿美元，比去减少了15%，主要原因是iPhone手机的预期销量下降17%。预计每股收益为1.40美元，年比下降24%。

这些数据的下降预期，必然影响苹果公司的股价。公司股票目前交易价格约为97美元，回落到两年前的水平，低于其在2012年9月份首次达到的100美元。公司股价的这一水平维持了很长时间。

但在周二的业绩报告可能会加剧投资者的担忧。下面五个问题值得投资者关注：

1. 低价版iPhone SE是否侵蚀了高价版的销售？

分析师早已预计到，与去年同期相比，苹果iPhone手机的销量会大幅下降。但后来苹果推出了4英寸版iPhone SE，起售价仅有400美元，这是到目前为止其全新设计的手机最低的入门价格。根据华尔街的预期，即使iPhone销量达到4,000万台，一旦有大量消费者意外选择了SE型号，苹果的收入仍将遭受重创。苹果并未单独披露各型号手机的销量，因此分析师需要仔细研究iPhone手机的售价，通过价格的显著下降，发现数据中隐藏的SE销量的上涨。上一季度iPhone手机的平均售价为642美元。

2. 服务收入是否仍保持强劲增长？

自从iPhone手机销售增速放缓以来，特别是上一季度iPhone销量首次下降之后，苹果CEO蒂姆·库克一直强调公司的服务收入，包括iCloud存储收费、应用、视频与音乐销售等。上一季度，从1月至3月，苹果公司的服务收入增长20%，达到约60亿美元。但这依旧低于2015年最后三个月26%的增长幅度。库克重视服务收入的原因是，即便硬件设备销售放缓，服务收入已经可以保持强劲增长。但如果收入增长速度再次大幅下跌，这种重视可能只会让投资者认为，苹果面临另外一个迫在眉睫的问题。

3. 蒂姆·库克是否会再次改变有关当前iPhone用户升级换代率的说法？

库克改变了有关当前iPhoen用户升级换代率的说法，结果引发了部分投资者的不满。两年前，iPhone 6打破销售纪录时，库克曾表示升级换代率稳定，但由于当时苹果首次推出大屏iPhone手机，因此对于其销售临时上涨的担忧并非无的放矢。但最近，在解释iPhone 6S销量下滑的原因时，库克却将矛头指向了异乎寻常的iPhone 6升级购买量——他在当初否认存在这种情况。或许这个季度，库克又会改变有关升级换代率的说法。

4. 苹果在中国的问题是否变得越来越糟糕？

中国曾经是苹果的增长引擎。例如，去年第三财季，苹果在中国的销量增长了112%。但如今中国经济增速放缓，智能手机市场的竞争也变得日益激烈。上一季度，苹果在中国的销量减少了26%。但中国市场依旧占苹果总收入的四分之一。如果苹果在中国的问题变得更加糟糕，必然会引起投资者的担忧。

5. Mac电脑与iPad销售继续下滑？

在iPhone手机销量下降的同时，其他苹果产品同样遭遇重创。上一季度，iPad平板电脑的销量下降了19%，Mac电脑的销量下降了9%。这两款产品仅占iPhone总销量的四分之一，但本可以为手机销量下滑提供缓冲。但实际上，它们却加剧了苹果面临的问题。苹果曾试图通过新“Pro”产品线，提高iPad的销量，同时通过频繁升级颇受欢迎的iMac计算机，吸引更多购买者。周二的报告应该足以说明，这些措施是否帮助扭转了两款产品销量下滑的局面。（财富中文网）

译者：刘进龙/汪皓

Apple reports the results of its fiscal third quarter, the three months ended June 30, on July 26 after the markets close.

Investors have low expectations, at least as measured by the average Wall Street analyst forecast. Expected revenue of $42.2 billion would reflect a 15% decline from last year, mainly due to a predicted 17% drop in the number of iPhones sold. Expected earnings per share of $1.40 is 24% less than a year ago.

All those expected declines have, of course, weighed on Apple’s share price. Trading at around $97, the stock is back to where it was two years ago and below the $100 level it first broached in September 2012. That’s a long time to be treading water.

But it’s possible that investors could grow even more concerned after Tuesday’s report. Here are five areas of possible concern to watch out for:

1.Did the lower-priced iPhone SE eat away at sales of more expensive models?

Analysts already expect a big drop in the number of iPhones Apple sold compared to the same period a year ago. But since then, Apple introduced the 4-inch iPhone SE at a starting price of just $400, by far its cheapest entry-level price for a brand new phone design. Even if Apple sold 40 million iPhones, as Wall Street expects, if a surprisingly large contingent of buyers opted for the SE model, Apple’s revenue could take a major hit. Apple doesn’t disclose sales on a per-model basis, so analysts will be scrutinizing the average iPhone sales price for a noticeable drop to detect a hidden uptick in SE sales. It was $642 last quarter.

2. Are service revenues still growing strongly?

Since iPhone sales started slowing—and particularly after the first-ever decline in iPhone sales last quarter—Apple CEO Tim Cook has been emphasizing his company’s revenue from services, which includes everything from fees for iCloud storage to sales of apps, videos, and music tracks. Last quarter, from January through March, service revenues jumped 20% to almost $6 billion. Still, that was slower than the 26% rate of growth they posted in the final three months of 2015. Cook’s point in focusing on service revenues was that they could grow strongly even if device sales slowed. But if the rate of revenue growth falls sharply again, that focus may just show investors that Apple has another looming problem.

3. Will Tim Cook change his story again on the upgrade rate of current iPhone owners?

Cook has raised the ire of some investors by changing his storyon the rate at which current iPhone owners have upgraded to newer models. Two years ago, when the iPhone 6 was burning up the sales charts, Cook declared that upgrade rates were steady, and there was reason to fear a temporary uptick in sales due to Apple introducing its first larger screen iPhones. But more recently, Cook has tried to explain away the decline in sales of the iPhone 6S line by blaming an unusually large amount of upgrade buying of the iPhone 6—exactly what he denied was happening at the time. Perhaps this quarter, Cook will straighten out his upgrade story.

4. Have Apple’s troubles in China gotten any worse?

China used to be the engine of Apple’s growth. Sales to China increased by 112% in the fiscal third quarter last year, for example. But lately, the economy has been slowing in China and the smartphone market has been growing increasingly competitive. Last quarter, Apple’s sales to China contracted by 26%. Still, they represented one-quarter of Apple’s total revenue. If Apple’s problems in China got worse, investors could become quite concerned.

5. Are Macintosh and iPad sales getting worse?

While iPhone sales have shrunk, other Apple products are also getting hit. Sales of the iPad tablet computer fell 19% and Mac computer sales dropped 9% last quarter. The two categories together only comprise about one-quarter of total iPhone sales, but could have provided a buffer when phone sales fell. Instead, they added to Apple’s problems. Apple has tried to boost iPad sales with its a new “Pro” line up while frequently upgrading the popular iMac computers to entice more buyers. Tuesday’s report should show whether those measures helped turn around the sales decline—or not.