IPO陷入8年来低谷，市场不稳定是主因

投资者可能仍在期待着下一家苹果或者谷歌的上市，不过今年他们的选择可能不多了。

合并与收购研究公司Dealogic表示，今年美国的首次公开募股（initial public offerings, IPO）是2009年以来最不理想的一次。今年的前7个月中，54家美国公司进行了IPO，共筹得115亿美元，而去年同期有118次IPO，共筹得229亿美元。

出现这一现象的部分原因，在于新IPO的重要来源：私人股权机构开始越来越多地选择把公司卖给战略投资者，而不是公开上市。这些公司似乎担心在不稳定的市场行情中，他们能否通过公开市场获得更大回报。考虑到今年只有两家公司在IPO后股价有所提升，这种焦虑似乎得到了证实。他们分别是科技公司Twilio和Line，IPO后首日的股价在交易截止时分别上涨了近92%和27%。

与此同时，私人公司也看到了继续私有化的优势：他们不必经常回答监管机构、激进投资者和股东的问题。此外，一些私人公司不必上市就能得到可观的资助，而想要上市的公司也会同时考虑合并和收购。作为回应，有些公司会得到难以拒绝的收购要约。

这其中就包括信息安全公司Blue Coat System，他们放弃了6月的IPO计划，以46.5亿美元的价格被赛门铁克收购。Petco Holdings也同意以46亿美元出售给了私募股权公司CVC Capital Partners和加拿大退休金计划投资委员会（Canadian Pension Plan Investment Board），随后放弃了2月的上市计划。

实际上，但PE把自己卖给其他私人公司，在今年也算不上是新潮流。安永指出，截至2015年底，当年IPO的数量与2014年基本一致——尽管PE支持的交易规模有所降低。随着公司开始观望混合经济，更加注重风险规避，IPO的规模从2014年PE转售总值的近25%下滑到了2015年的14%。

与此同时，2016年也是科技公司合并与收购的大年，目前的成交价值已经达到了3,940亿美元，在科技界的并购史上排名第二。

未来可能还会有更多并购发生。私人股权领域的“干粉灭火剂”（dry powder），即可用于交易的现金量，在过去几个季度中不断攀升。研究机构Preqin的数据显示，到今年6月底，现金量已经达到了历史新高的8,180亿美元。现在的问题只在于这些资金将在何时流向何处。

从市场整体来看，这可能是个好消息。不过如果你想在投资组合里添上几家涨势喜人的新公司，选择的余地恐怕就不多了。（财富中文网）

译者：严匡正

Investors might be waiting for the next Apple or Google or even Facebook to go public—but they’re unlikely to have many to choose from this year.

This year has been the slowest for U.S. initial public offerings since 2009, according to mergers and acquisitions research firm, Dealogic. Fifty-four U.S. IPOs have raised $11.5 billion in the first seven months of this year—down from the $22.9 billion raised through 118 deals through the same period last year.

That’s partially because private equity firms, a key source of new IPOs, are increasingly selling their companies off to strategic investors rather taking them public. PE firms appear to be worried about whether they’ll be able to gain higher returns in the public space amid volatile market conditions. That anxiety is likely justified, given that just two IPOs have priced above range this year. Those two being tech companies Twilio, which closed up nearly 92% on its first day of trading, and Line, which closed up 27% from its IPO price.

Meanwhile private companies are also seeing the upside of staying private: No more answering constantly to regulators, activist investors, and shareholders. Additionally, not only are some private companies receiving sound funding without a listing, companies contemplating going public are also thinking about a merger or acquisition at the same time. In response, such companies are also receiving takeover offers they can’t refuse.

That includes Blue Coat System, a cybersecurity firm that abandoned its IPO plans in June to sell itself to Symantec for $4.65 billion. Petco Holdings also withdrew plans to go public in February, after agreeing to a $4.6 billion acquisition by CVC Capital Partners and Canadian Pension Plan Investment Board.

Private equity firms selling their companies to other private entities is not exactly a new trend this year—Ernest and Young noted by the end of 2015 that the number of IPOs that year were in line with 2014 numbers—though private-equity backed deals fell. IPOs shrank from nearly a quarter of total private equity exit value in 2014 to 14% in 2015, as the firms took stock of a mixed economy and more risk aversion.

 Meanwhile, 2016 has been the year of tech company mergers and acquisitions, with $394 billion worth in tech deals thus far‚ making this year the second largest in history for tech takeovers.

And it’s likely more is to come. The private equity industry has been growing its pile of “dry powder,”—cash available to do deals—over the past few quarters. That grew to a record $818 billion by the end of June, according to Preqin. Now it’s a matter of when, and where, those funds will go.

That’s probably good news for the market in general. But if you were looking for a few new growth companies to flesh out your portfolio, it’s likely to continue to be slim pickings.